Week 18 NFL Predictions, Picks and Betting Advice: AFC Matchups

AFC Betting Advice For Week 18

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his NFL Week 18 betting preview providing possible picks and predictions across critical AFC matchups! What are his takeaways from a betting perspective? Read below now!

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NFL Betting Preview for Week 18

Another NFL season has come and gone. This once-a-year report previews every week 18 game. PART ONE COVERS THE AFC GAMES. Within each preview will be what’s at stake, what my metrics say, how I’m approaching handicapping the game, and some tidbits related to player milestones and potential incentives.

NOTE: Except for Saturday’s games, all listings are in order only by Division, and not in order with regard to the official rotation.

NOTE: Under personal season performance, you will see what season win futures (and in-season futures) I had. Under the prop players section, you will see what I believe are the remaining relevant milestones left for various players.

You will NOT see the methodology behind my season win plays, and will NOT see what player and team proposition plays I made prior to the season. If interested, you can always contact me via twitter.

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Steelers vs Ravens (Saturday)

Situation: Pittsburgh can make the playoffs with a win and either a Buffalo loss or a Jacksonville loss. Baltimore clinched the #1 overall seed in the AFC with last week’s win over Miami. They will be resting starters in this game.

Metrics: Both teams have double-digit positive turnover ratios. Baltimore leads the NFL in defensive sacks, but Mason Rudolph has only been sacked twice in two games. This season Baltimore regressed vs. the run. The average is higher than I’ve seen it in a very long time. We do not know how long Baltimore will play its starters, but all my situations favor them.

Decisions: Power Numbers are often meaningless for week 18 games. Yes, there are games where they can still be used, but this is not one of them. Still, the gap in Power Numbers is quite large, and the series history is 50-50 at all times. I took Baltimore at +4. Another possible look is to play them in the early quarters or in the 1st half.

Personal Seasonal Performance: I seldom play teams to go OVER their season win total. From 2020-2022 I was 29-10 on season win UNDERS, and 4-1 on season win OVERS (3-0 in 2022). Baltimore was my only season win OVER this year and it won.

FYI: For prop players, with ½ sack, DE Clowney gets a $750K bonus. T.J. Watt is tied for the NFL lead in sacks. RB Najee Harris needs 77 yards to reach the milestone of 1,000. Round numbers such as these ARE important to me, but keep in mind that for this game, the Steelers are all out to win 1st, and not pining for player milestones.

Colts vs Texans (Saturday)

Situation: The winner of this game is in the playoffs. In addition, the winner of this game wins the AFC South if Jacksonville loses on Sunday. The loser of this game is OUT of the playoffs.

Metrics: The only stat sheet item which stands out is how Houston defends the run game. They force teams to beat them via the pass, and with 45 defensive sacks, the OL better protect vs. Houston’s pass rush. I get Houston -2 with my Power Numbers, but I understand why the line opened mostly dead even.

Decisions: Without a good read on Indy all season, I’ve tried and succeeded in not getting involved in straight plays. I have an opinion on the total, leaning OVER for game, and if conditions are right, for the 2nd half. THIS is the one week where I place a large number of quarter and 1st half and 2nd half plays based on some solid handicapping situations. This is a do or die situation for both teams, and the team behind will go all out to make this competitive.

Personal Seasonal Performance: I lost with an UNDER 6.5 season win ticket on Houston.

FYI: For prop players, LB Zaire Franklin leads the NFL (by 2) with 170 total tackles.

Jets vs Patriots

Situation: This is one of two games where both teams are out of the playoff picture. The Jets want to erase a very long losing streak to New England. As for the Patriots, their season of turnover and special team miscues can’t end soon enough. I don’t know who the coach will be in 2024 but there’s a good chance they draft a rookie QB if one of the top three are available.

Metrics: Turnover ratios have hurt both teams. The Jets have a sound overall defense, and face a rudderless offense. The Patriots stop the run very well. They have won the last 14 games in a row hosting the Jets.

Decisions: The Jets care, and have the rest differential advantage to prepare. QB play is problematic, but I’ll strongly lean their way at +3 or more.

Personal Seasonal Performance: I won my UNDER 9.5 win ticket on the Jets (+120).

For prop players, I have nothing to report.

Bills vs Dolphins (Sunday Night Football)

Situation: The final game of the 2023 NFL regular season has massive implications. The winner of this game is the AFC’s #2 seed, earning the right to host at least two home playoff games. Buffalo can actually miss the playoffs with a loss, but that will be known prior to this game. If both Pittsburgh and Jacksonville win (and the Houston-Indy game does not end in a tie), then the Bills will either be the #2 seed, or out of the playoffs entirely. If one of those teams lose, then Buffalo is in the playoffs as the #6 or #7 seed. Miami would be the #6 seed if they lose, which means they would travel to KC, the #3 seeded team.

Metrics: Both teams are in the top five for defensive sacks, with Miami’s OL the more vulnerable unit. With the unfortunate injury to Bradley Chubb, Miami’s pass rush will be a bit weaker. Buffalo has thrived lately, mostly due to Josh Allen passing fewer times, not putting his team in harm’s way by forcing throws. I have a minimum of two situations favoring Miami.

Decisions: As explained with Las Vegas Cris on our Tuesday podcast (give it a listen), there is an enormous gap at WR for Miami if Waddle cannot play. Tua thrives on slant passes, and Waddle and Hill are deadly catching the ball in stride. Miami also lost CB Howard in their loss to the Ravens, and I need to know his status. The line is too high if both Howard and Waddle suit up.

Personal Seasonal Performance: I made no season win plays on either team.

For prop players, Tyreek Hill is 66 yards ahead of CeeDee Lamb, and his 12 receiving TD’s is one back of Evans (Tampa).

Browns vs Bengals

Situation: Cleveland is locked into the 5th overall seed. Cincinnati was eliminated from the playoffs last week.

Metrics: Cleveland has by far the best pass % defense. Cincinnati has the turnover ratio edge. I have conflicting end of year and historical matchup indicators, but with Cleveland likely resting some starters before/during the game, Cincy gets the edge.

Decisions: The line could only go one way. There’s a backstory to how I was “denied” a better line (happened three times this week), but in the end I took Cincy -3 in the game. Obviously, I encourage everyone (myself included) to get as much Cleveland roster information as possible. Depending on both news and game flow, the 3rd and 4th quarter may also favor the Bengals.

Personal Seasonal Performance: I had a pair of tickets going UNDER Cincinnati’s win total, and I won a head-to-head with Alabama +1.5 season wins over these Bengals. My smallest season win play was UNDER for Cleveland, which lost.

FYI: For prop players, Joe Mixon needs 77 rushing yards to get to 1,000. This seems like something they will openly try for. Trey Hendrickson is tied with T.J. Watt with 17 sacks. We’ll know what Watt did on Saturday. This is another live situation.

Jaguars vs Titans

Situation: Jacksonville wins the South and the 4th overall seed if they defeat the Titans. From what I’ve been able to gather, Jacksonville would still make the playoffs with a loss as long as both Pittsburgh and Denver lose during week 18. Tennessee is long out of the playoff picture and has seemingly had their bags packed for most of December.

Metrics: Jacksonville does not run the ball strong enough to make an impact vs. Tennessee’s run defense, although Etienne did improve last weekend. There’s also the question as to how much effort the Titans will give here. The Titans have allowed a massive twenty sacks in just the past three games. In good news, the history, plus a specific last game angle favors Tennessee.

Decisions: I took Jacksonville -3 (-120) early, “knowing” that there was only one way the line could go. This seemed to me to be an easy read. Do I trust the Jags? NO. I’m assuming Lawrence plays, and while that will push the line up, a less than healthy Lawrence is not ideal either. I will take the Titans closer to game time, anticipating at least +6, while hoping for +7. I will also monitor game day “effort”, and won’t be afraid to pivot again should I see quit in the Titans.

Personal Seasonal Performance: I won my Jacksonville UNDER season win total ticket, but still pending is my Jacksonville Divisional ticket, made during the season. I also made an in-season UNDER 7.5 win ticket on Tennessee that did cash.

FYI: For prop players, RB Etienne needs 49 yards to reach 1,000. That may require extra carries. WR Ridley needs 90 yards to reach 1,000, but Jacksonville won’t openly try for this, considering what’s at stake for their season. Most of WR Hopkins’ incentives will not be reached, but he’ll get some cash if he catches seven passes (and more if he gets two touchdowns).

Broncos vs Raiders

Situation: Neither team will make the playoffs this season.

Metrics: Does Sean Payton really care if Denver wins? Maybe only to justify benching Russell Wilson. His run defense is still poor, and Vegas, under the well-liked Antonio Pierce, could exploit this weakness. Both teams have negative indicators.

Decisions: Given their historical edge, I’d rather back Vegas in this spot. I will consider the 1st half and full game, but the odds are trending into an area that would almost certainly require a no play on my part. I will read local stories for both teams first.

Personal Seasonal Performance: The one pending season win ticket I have is Vegas UNDER. This could get tricky. I think the play was CERTAIN to win with Josh McDaniels, but his firing was a blessing for the Raiders.

FYI: For prop players, the only player in the top four tacklers whose team is NOT playing for a playoff berth is here. Alex Singleton trails the leader by six tackles, and he’ll know what is needed by Saturday night. This might be interesting.

Chiefs vs Chargers

Situation: Yes, KC was not as good as advertised in 2023, but locking in the #3 seed PRIOR to week 18 is a possible blessing in disguise (see below). The LA Chargers are focused on hiring a Head Coach and General Manager for 2024.

Metrics: KC has 54 defensive sacks, but will rest starters at least part of the game. KC’s leaky run defense is likely to be exposed here. I have last positive last game indicators for both teams that cancel each other out.

Decisions: This is often a close KC win, but Easton Stick has a low ceiling and KC’s defensive reserves are still capable of keeping this game close. I have no real opinion on this game as I write this on Tuesday afternoon, but the line is getting high (-3).

Personal Seasonal Performance: Writing matters. I explained in my May, 2023 NFL schedule analysis report why KC was going to be in trouble this season. They just completed their 6th straight game where their opponent had a positive rest differential advantage. That massively unfair schedule was one of the reasons I had a large ticket UNDER 12 season wins, and why I recommended a play in-season UNDER 12.5 season wins. No plays were made on or against the LA Chargers.

FYI: For prop players, RB Ekeler has earned NOTHING from his reworked contract, with most of the incentives not reachable. Such is life as an NFL RB. He needs 110 line of scrimmage yards to salvage 100K. Khalil Mack is having a great season, and stands one sack below co-leaders T.J. Watt and Trey Hendrickson. He’ll know the results around kickoff. Chris Jones needs just ½ sack to achieve a $1.25 million bonus. I’m not sure how long the next two players will be in action, but WR Rice needs 62 yards to reach 1,000, and RB Pacheco needs 65 yards to reach 1,000.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris

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