Week 3 NFL Recap – Week 4 Betting Preview

NFL Betting Recap For Week 3

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his NFL Week 3 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 4 of NFL kicking off on Thursday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!

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NFL Betting Recap For Week 3

Welcome to my recap of Week 3 in the NFL. Part one of this week’s article will be a list of seven impressions I formed after watching last week’s action. Part two will look ahead to three games with some initial observations.

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Impressions From NFL Week 3

I can publish a book about John Harbaugh and his continued clock mismanagement.

John Harbaugh is a “players” coach, and thanks to his special team’s background, that unit has been an asset. Maybe I’m the lone dissenter, but he has made so many clock and game management errors over the last decade that even I have lost count.

The time before Lamar Jackson, the blunders just before halftime were comical. Having Lamar masked some mistakes (Lamar got him out of trouble), but in 2021 and 2022 he made head-scratching 4th quarter and 4th down decisions with a backup QB at the helm.

Anyone who watched Sunday’s game can see how poorly he managed the 4th quarter and overtime. Last Friday, I noted to Las Vegas Cris on our podcast that backing coaches that we believe are not strong in crunch time can still be “okay”, but not when that team is favored.

People may disagree with this take, but that’s quite alright with me. Baltimore has a stacked roster thanks to how well the utilize the NFL draft, but there’s no excuse for all the mistakes the staff makes with the game on the line.

Focus Matters! I won’t get these all correct, but last week I suspected Dallas would have a focus problem playing at Arizona and their play reflected that feeling.

I also noted that KC would not have that same issue, and they toyed with the Bears. Matt Nagy was once the Head Coach of the Bears, and now he’s KC’s offensive coordinator.

For that matter, Vic Fangio (Miami’s defensive coordinator) was once the Head Coach of Denver. Interesting?

Arizona and Houston continue to play inspired football. Speaking of Arizona, they have played hard since the opening kickoff of week one.

NO ONE tanks in the NFL, but Arizona’s roster should not be good enough to complete with teams like Dallas. I love how hard they’ve played, and the same goes for Houston, where after four straight years of extreme roster and coaching turnover, the team may finally be on the right track.

I’ll be watching for spots where these teams can sneak up on their respective opponents, and stay away from teams that may have other internal problems, such as the Chicago Bears.

KICKING MATTERS (Again). Those who know me well knew this was coming, and in fact beat me to the punch on twitter. Will Lutz is a career 85% placekicker who was New Orleans’ kicker since 2016.

He was “beaten out” by someone named Blake Grupe. To be honest, Grupe might be a fine NFL kicker, but why change from the known to the unknown when you are the favorite to win the NFC South?

Too many teams try to justify going with younger kickers to save money, but how much does it truly save? Grupe missed the game winning kick vs. Green Bay last Sunday.

Here’s hoping Blake moves on from that, and the loss in this game won’t make a difference in the final standings.

Blame the General Manager? Yes, with a bullet! The Atlanta Falcons are an ascending team with a habitual General Manager problem.

In the NFL, the pass rush matters. If you can’t get to opposing QB’s the secondary has to cover talented WR’s for too long a time.

The Falcons obviously value different metrics that I do. We’re going on a full decade of not providing a solution to the pass rush problem. Under a 17-game schedule, the average number of sacks a team produces is around 40.

The Atlanta Falcons had but 18 sacks in 2021, and 21 sacks in 2022. They have three just far this season. 42 sacks in 37 games? This is criminal. I’m sorry, but I won’t take them seriously until this gets fixed.

For two teams and coaches, the glass is half empty. I’m an optimist by nature, but some coaches just drive me crazy. In my preview of the LA Chargers at Minnesota game, I felt that this would be a last possession game, as both teams would have trouble stopping each other. Instead,

LA and Minny seem to be better at stopping themselves. How many errors has Brandon Staley made just in three games?

How many more turnovers will Minnesota make in the red zone? In a new twist to an old saying, if these teams played each other ten times, LA would find a way to lose five times, and so would Minnesota. And don’t get me started on other coaches, such as Josh McDaniels on Sunday night.

Finally, the NFL is a better place when Tua is healthy. Going into 2023, I saw Miami has a high variance team. I said in August that If Tua could stay healthy for all 17 games, Miami makes the playoffs, but going into 2023 he was also one concussion away from possible early retirement.

I love watching him play, and this offense is tailored perfectly to his strengths, which has me thinking back to the slant passes Kenny Stabler used to throw. Please stay healthy!

Three Key Games to Keep in Mind for Week 4

Detroit at Green Bay (Thursday): Nothing seems to come easy for these two teams. I projected 41 defensive sacks for Detroit, who had just one before last week. That’s the danger of using 2023 stats after just two games. The Lions had seven sacks last week and now are on pace to meet my projection.

As for Green Bay, they come off a pair of one-point games that were won and lost at the very end. Their stat sheet is looking decent, but Jordan Love is just 51-96 passing, and that is a concern. As a reminder, the Lions ended Green Bay’s season in the very last game of 2022. Can the Packers extract revenge?

Early Game Keys: Green Bay stopping emerging rookie RB Gibbs. The Lion’s pass rush vs. the better-than-expected Green Bay pass protection.

Miami at Buffalo: My early vote for a must-see game! Wasn’t Miami supposed to be deficient running the ball? They ran 43-350 vs. Denver.

Rookie RB Achane is yet another super-fast Miami option, and he ran 18-203, and totaled four TD’s (two through the air). Tua has thrown for over 1,000 yards, and Tyreek Hill has over 400 receiving yards.

Miami’s defense so far is below average vs. the run and the pass but in this offensively-minded league that hasn’t been an issue.

When Josh Allen limits turnovers, the Bills are tough to beat, and now come into week four as my current highest rated NFL team.

Good things happen when Buffalo is more balanced offensively, and RB Cook is averaging over six yards per carry.

Like Miami, the defense has yet to play its best football, but they have recorded seven defensive interceptions.

Early Game Keys: While Buffalo has owned this series at home, Miami nearly won a shootout at this site a year ago and under their 2nd year Head Coach, past history is not something I need to be focusing on, especially in early October weather.

Buffalo sacked Sam Howell nine times last week, to run their total to twelve for the season. Tua has been sacked just once all season. This is the matchup to watch at 1st glance.

Baltimore at Cleveland: No Baltimore lead is safe these days. Lamar Jackson is one of the NFL’s best, but there’s been growing pains with the new offense, and the 3rd and 4th down plays calls haven’t helped.

Baltimore is performing as expected or even better in some defensive areas, save for end game situations.

The Browns are performing lights out defensively, a year after underachieving in this area. Some regression could be expected, but they’ve allowed just ONE defensive touchdown, a 71-yard pass. QB Watson showed significant improvement last week, although Tennessee’s pass defense is not all that great.

There are two offensive issues which bear watching. 1st, Cleveland figures to miss Nick Chubb. RB Ford ran well at Pittsburgh but last week he ran ten times for just 18 yards.

Better run defenses will hold him down. 2nd, Watson has been sacked twelve times. I remain concerned (for now) about his pocket presence.

Early Game Keys: Cleveland has won the last two hosting Baltimore. For the Ravens, they need to frustrate Watson and have the defense make things easier for their offense. For the Browns, if they take away Lamar’s ability to run the ball, that might go a long way to keeping Baltimore from putting together medium to long drives.

NEXT WEEK: Coaches think in quartiles and so should we. I’ll be writing about the importance of week five in the NFL.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris.

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