Week 4 NFL Recap - Week 5 Betting Preview

NFL Betting Recap For Week 4

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his NFL Week 4 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 5 of NFL kicking off on Thursday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!

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NFL Betting Recap For Week 4

All 32 NFL teams have played four games. NFL coaches often break down their games into quartiles, and I do the same.

The 2^nd quartile is a critical one in the NFL. Teams who start the season hot want to build on that momentum. Teams who are off to a slow start know that this quartile can make or break their season.

Past history tells us that some 3-1 teams can be overvalued heading into the next quartile, while some 1-3 teams might actually be undervalued.

I won’t get into exact details, but there can be some hidden week five value in fading or backing such teams

SPECIAL NOTE: With NFL teams now playing 17 games, we no longer have four true quartiles. I can tell you with certainly however, that most NFL coaches still use games 1-4 as quartile #1.

The next quartile however, will likely be different for each team, and very likely contingent on the placement of their bye week, or mini-bye week.

For that reason, teams with a week seven to week ten bye (or mini-bye) will likely define quartile #2 by that break in their schedule. Keep that in mind.

Listed below are 3-1 teams who might be vulnerable in week five, and 1-3 teams who might have some added incentive to do well this coming week.

The week five/quartile two letdown situation has a variety of subsets that range from 62% spread success (playing against the 3-1 team) up to 68% against the spread.

In all cases, the sample size ranges from the high 70’s to the high 90’s. 3-1 teams who fit the parameters are just 11-19 vs. the spread of late.

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3-1 Teams Who Could Be Vulnerable This Week

Baltimore: Thus far, the Ravens have faced a team with a QB playing in his very 1st game (Stroud), a hobbled Joe Burrow, Gardner Minshew, and another rookie in Cleveland, who subbed for an ailing Deshawn Watson.

Now they travel to rival Pittsburgh, who might be starting Mitchell Trubisky. Baltimore generally fits into the 3-1 system.

The part that doesn’t fit neatly is that they will be playing a Divisional rival. Still, almost every game in this series comes down to the wire, and the current point spread is over a field goal.

Buffalo: This is a more classic version of the letdown scenario where we not only get a 3-1 team feeling good about how they fared in quartile #1, but also get the added bonus of Buffalo just winning vs. a previously undefeated Divisional rival.

Up next is a trip to London, and a game vs. a team outside of their division. The Jags just played a game in London, and for the first time, will play back-to-back games overseas. Buffalo is my highest ranked team coming into week five, but this game will test their focus and fortitude.

Kansas City: It wasn’t Aaron Rodgers in a NYJ uniform, but the glamor of New York was still there as KC held on to defeat the Jets on Sunday Night.

Kansas City stays on the road to face Minnesota, a team that seems to be inflicting more damage on themselves than anything else.

On the surface, KC should have a field day with the Viking’s defense, but I could see a slight loss of focus or motivation coming off the national stage, and KC’s defense could get a test from QB Cousins and the Minnesota offense. Two technical factors, plus the 3-1 quartile edge might give the home team hope.

Honorable Mention: The Detroit Lions only partially fit the quartile two system, as teams with extra time off such as the Lions can easily refocus and not dwell on what has just happened. Results are mixed in these cases.

1-3 Teams Who Could Surprise This Week

Las Vegas: The Raiders sit at 1-3 and look completely lost, but that’s why coaches push the reset button and ask the players to refocus on the next quartile of games.

Smart coaches set new goals, noting that going 3-1 in quartile #2 brings the overall record to 4-4, and right back into the playoff race. Getting Jimmy Garoppolo back would be a huge boost as well.

This standalone Monday Night game also features WR Adams facing his former team. There are other technical factors in play, but suffice to say that Las Vegas has an opportunity to start quartile #2 with a win.

New England: The “beauty” of backing certain 1-3 teams is that we get an opportunity to buy low. New England just got blown out by Dallas and like with Las Vegas, the season seems like it’s slipping away.

With Buffalo and Miami on the schedule in this quartile, the Patriot’s season may indeed be over without a win this Sunday. An added boost comes with a few matchup indicators, which are in favor of the home team.

New York Jets: The Jets lost last Sunday Night to fall to 1-3, but in that loss, they played some inspired football and seemed to bond together as a team.

There were times when both New York teams were booed off the field this past weekend, so it’s not necessarily a bad thing for this team to start the 2nd quartile on the road. The bye week is after game #6, so this is not a full quartile.

The message here should be simple: Based on our performance last week we can complete with any team on our schedule. Winning the next two games would bring the Jets to 3-3 before their week off.

Matchup indicators also favor the Jets, who might be able to exploit some Denver weaknesses with a solid game plan.

Of course, that’s the larger story, as there’s been a war of words between Sean Payton and Nathaniel Hackett, Denver’s former Head Coach and now New York’s offensive coordinator.

Honorable Mention: The New York Giants only partially fit the quartile two system, as they travel to Miami after playing on Monday Night.

Teams with shorter rest (in this case, more than 24 hours) lack the necessary time to recalibrate and transition to quartile #2 thinking.

Certainly, Miami has some defensive areas to clean up, but it might take more than just a week five partial indicator to want to back the Giants based on what they’ve looked like so far in 2023.

Week 5 Lookahead – 49ers vs Cowboys (Sunday Night)

These teams haven’t played a regular season game since 2020, but San Fran has defeated Dallas in each of the last two postseasons.

Both teams have playoff-worthy stat sheets. For Dallas, they are already +9 in turnover margin. Good teams create their own “luck”, but this might not be sustainable against the precision 49er offense.

The Dallas edge might come from a relentless pass rush. For the 49ers, they have the game’s best non-QB in Christian McCaffrey, who would have my vote for league MVP through four games.

The area of concern for San Fran is their pass defense, and I expect Dak Prescott to display decent accuracy in this spot.

Early Game Keys: Can Dallas stop San Francisco’s initial drive? NO TEAM is better at scripting the games first fifteen plays than the 49ers.

An early stop could prevent San Fran from taking their customary early lead. Can WR Brandin Cooks get going?

When healthy, he’s been a 1,000 yard receiver every single season. He’s been invisible in their offense so far in 2023.

NEXT WEEK: A look back at my opening Power Ratings, isolating the teams who have risen and fallen the most after five weeks of action.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris.

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