Week 6 NFL Recap – Week 7 Betting Preview

NFL Betting Recap For Week 6

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his NFL Week 6 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 7 of NFL kicking off on Thursday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!

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NFL Betting Recap For Week 6

Injuries are piling up in the NFL at an alarming rate. In week six we saw some key players exit games for Chicago (QB Fields), San Francisco (RB McCaffrey and WR Samuel) and Tennessee (QB Tannehill), just to name a few.

In this week’s article I will attempt to look at several teams in the NFC and assess the impact of injuries that may sideline some key players. I’ll do the same for the AFC in next week’s article.

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NFL Injury Analysis – NFC

Arizona: Losing RB James Conner is likely to greatly impact Arizona’s ability to establish the running game, which will put additional pressure on QB Joshua Dobbs.

Carolina: Cluster injuries to the OL and secondary have the winless Panthers scrambling to find replacements. In addition, RB Miles Sanders is week to week, and of course, impact DB Jaycee Horn was previously put on IR.

We’ve seen the Panthers wear down in many a game this season and I expect that to continue for the near future.

Chicago: QB Justin Fields is likely going to miss another 2-3 weeks. Tyson Bagent was 10-14 for just 83 yards (one interception) vs. a very poor Minnesota pass defense.

In addition, their top two RB’s were out, with Khalil Herbert (51-272-5.3 per carry) placed on IR. At least some of their injured DB’s are back in action. Although the run game won’t be completely stopped, look for decreased production overall from this offense.

Dallas: Two key members of their defense have been put on IR. The pass rush is still solid, but look for opposing teams with above average pass protection to test the Cowboy’s pass defense.

Detroit: Losing RB David Montgomery last week had an immediate impact on their ground game (22 carries for just 40 yards). Rookie RB Gibbs might return vs. Baltimore, but he may not be at full strength. TE LaPorta is also dealing with an injury and his status is up in the air as I write this. Facing Baltimore’s physical defense will be a challenge.

Green Bay: RB Aaron Jones has missed three of five games, and has 14 carries in total. He might return this week and he gets a favorable matchup at Denver, but the game is in altitude and fatigue might be a factor for him.

A bigger concern would be if LB Quay Walker and Safety Darnell Savage missed time. They are #1 and #3 in tackles. In addition, former All-Pro LB De’Vondre Campbell has missed the last two games and his status is unknown.

Green Bay is coming off their bye week which helps, but check the injury reports (especially the official Friday report) carefully. Denver is off their mini-bye week, and could implement some changes to their offense.

Los Angeles Rams: RB Kyren Williams had a stat sheet of 58 carries for 314 yards the last three games, including 20-158 last week but he’s set to miss about three weeks according to early week reports.

That puts an extra hardship on QB Matthew Stafford, who certainly can handle the task but he’ll get hit quite a bit more, creating an injury risk.

Minnesota: The question I posed on the Friday Inside Blitz podcast was this: How much is WR Justin Jefferson worth? We know QB’s can be worth anywhere from three to even nine or ten points depending on the quality of the backup, but players at other positions are seldom worth even one point (think elite pass rushers such as Aaron Donald or T.J. Watt).

If last Sunday vs. a weak Chicago bear defense is any indication, Jefferson could be worth more than one point. Expect Minnesota’s offense to be noticeably less productive without his big play potential in the lineup.

There’s also news that edge rusher Marcus Davenport might land on injured reserve due to a high ankle sprain. That’s not insignificant, as the Vikings are allowing opposing QB’s to complete 75% of their passes. The pass rush matters.

New York Giants: Speaking of QB’s, I made NO adjustment for Tyrod Taylor subbing for an injured Daniel Jones. RB Saquon Barkley returned and immediately carried a heavy workload. The bigger news is cluster injuries to the OL, with as many as three starters possibly missing the next game. Clock management cost the NYG the upset win last week, but look for this team to rely heavily on Barkley in the near future.

Philadelphia: The Eagles haven’t put it together yet in 2023, and are dealing with a few defensive injuries, but for the most part their team depth on this side of the ball has compensated.

The big news offensively is the health of OT Lane Johnson. He could be a game time decision this week in the game against Miami. If he goes, I expect he’ll be less than 100%.

San Francisco: Many of us were remarking about how San Francisco had finally steered clear of injuries. That hasn’t been the case in recent years, but this past Sunday, multiple important players went down.

Missing any of the players I list below would be a downgrade. If two or three miss games, that would clearly impact on-field performance.

NOTE: San Franciso has a bye week after 10/29, so I suspect the 49ers could become whole again after that.

The best RB in the game is Christian McCaffrey. His injury may sideline him for 1-2 weeks.

One of the most versatile WR’s in the NFL is Deebo Samuel. He has a shoulder injury and could miss the next game. San Francisco plays on Monday Night, so he gets extra time to heal, but I suspect if he plays, he won’t be at 100%.

All-Pro LT Trent Williams was in a walking boot after the game on Sunday. He may give it a go (ankle injury) on Monday, but check the injury wire.

Finally, solid LB Dre Greenlaw missed last week’s game. His absence was felt as Cleveland was able to move the chains via the run game more than what was anticipated (321 total rush yards allowed weeks 1-5, 160 allowed on Sunday).

NFL Week 7 Game of the Week – Lions vs Ravens

In last week’s column I discussed the rise of the Detroit Lions, who were tied for 6th in my Power Rankings. After their impressive road victory over Tampa last Sunday, the Lions have moved up, into the top five.

The Lions stay on the road to face the physical Baltimore Ravens and that won’t be an easy task, but at present, I have Detroit rated higher than Baltimore.

I do a comprehensive stat sheet analysis on every game, highlighting area where one team has an edge. In this game, I show no glaring matchup edges for either team.

The Lions are clearly better defensively this year, and in fact this may be their best defense in quite some time.

The Ravens are still learning the Todd Monken offense, but as they get healthy, I expect more contributions out of their upgraded WR group, and as usual the defense is tough to score on.

Early Game Keys For Lions

Having just faced a tough Tampa defense, are they up to the challenge as they stay on the road for this tough matchup?

Will finishing drives be an issue because RB Gibbs will not be 100%, forcing the Lions into a pass heavy operation?

Detroit will need to hit at least one big play in this game. Is Jamison Williams ready to contribute even more to this offense?

Early Game Keys For Ravens

Baltimore is used to jumping on teams early, with a track record of creating double-digit leads since the beginning of 2022. Coming off the game at London, is that still feasible?

Baltimore is also used to blowing some, or all of their big leads in the 2nd half of their games. Can they be trusted protecting a lead vs. the Lions with the accurate Jared Goff at the helm?

The Lions have one of the best run defenses in 2023. Can the elusive Lamar Jackson win from the pocket in the pass game if necessary?

Finally, I’ve been fairly critical of John Harbaugh in end of half and end of game coaching situations. Is it safe to trust the decisions he makes with the game on the line?

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris.

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