Week 7 NFL Recap – Week 8 Betting Preview

NFL Betting Recap For Week 7

Football content contributor Ron Marmalefsky offers his NFL Week 7 betting recap as well as his lookahead to Week 8 of NFL kicking off on Thursday! What are his takeaways and look aheads from a betting perspective? Read below now!

You get free NFL picks from WagerTalk all season long – including Week 8 and beyond. Get your free sports picks now!

NFL Betting Recap For Week 7

Injuries are piling up in the NFL at an alarming rate. Last week I looked at NFC teams and assessed the impact of injuries to some of the key players and teams. This week I’ll do the same for the AFC.

Before You Read NFL Week 7 Recap… Get $15 FREE towards all expert picks – including NFL Week 8 Bets & More

NFL Injury Analysis – AFC

Buffalo: Losing CB Tre’Davious White for the entire season was bad enough, but DL DaQuan Jones and LB Matt Milano are also out, and Buffalo’s defense has suffered. The pass D% is close at 70% and the run defense is bottom three, allowing 5.2 per carry.

Milano will not be back until late December. Look for higher scoring games vs. teams not sporting rookie QB’s. Also, Tight End Dawson Knox (wrist surgery) will be out of action, but rookie Dalton Kincaid had a 50-50 target rate with Knox, and will likely just see an increased workload.

Cleveland: The big news is QB Watson’s injury. Interestingly enough, he was just 1-5 passing when he went out of the game, and Cleveland was in no rush to put him back in.

Losing RB Jerome Ford could actually impact the offense more than losing Watson. No other RB on the team can match his yards-per-carry impact. Remember, Nick Chubb is already gone for the year.

Monitor Ford’s status carefully. Cleveland will be much more one-dimensional without Ford in the lineup.

Jacksonville: WR Zay Jones has missed the last two games, and four games overall. This is only a minor setback for the Jags, but his return to full health would make the pass-catching unit even better.

Kansas City: The big news is losing speedy LB Nick Bolton (dislocated wrist on Sunday) for the next two months. The Chiefs have been playing much better defense in 2023 as compared to expectations, but I feel losing Bolton could have some impact on their performance.

Las Vegas: When will Jimmy G return? All wins for this three-win squad have been close, so any drop in QB performance matters. The backups threw three interceptions last week, and for the season Vegas is -10 in turnover ratio.

Even Jimmy throws interceptions, but I have him about four points better than either of their other QB choices.

Los Angeles Chargers: While “old” news, the loss of contested catch specialist Mike Williams cannot be overstated. Rookie Q. Johnston is hardly ready for NFL action (runs one route), and while Joshua Palmer has stepped up, the unit clearly misses Williams.

TE Everett left last Sunday’s game, and their backup TE was already nursing injuries. Their status must be checked out.

Miami: Miami’s very thin defense (spent $$$ on offense, eight TOTAL draft picks the last two seasons) has had its issues, but I list them here because they are going to get several injured players back in the next few weeks.

Once Xavien Howard (groin) and Jalen Ramsey (no games played this year) return, the secondary should improve. The Dolphins are allowing exactly 70% through the air so far, and that needs to change.

Offensively, Miami is dealing with OL injuries, and won’t have the speedy De’Von Achane back until week 11. The offense is built to succeed without these players, but will be that much tougher to stop if everyone returns to health.

New England: New England has had numerous players along the OL miss games, and Riley Reiff was put on IR this past Saturday. That doesn’t explain fully the lack of offense this season, but certainly that doesn’t help.

Defensively, the Pats are down two key players in sack specialist Matthew Judon and CB Christian Gonzalez. Judon won’t be back until week 14 at the earliest, but Gonzalez could be back as early as week 9.

Pittsburgh: Like Miami, there’s some good news, as getting WR Diontae Johnson back already paid dividends in their upset win at Los Angeles (Rams). TE Pat Freiermuth is on IR, but is expected back in a few weeks.

The impact of having Johnson back should create more opportunities for QB Kenny Pickett to grow his game.

Tennessee: QB Ryan Tannehill is on the downside of his career, but his backups are not NFL ready and may be not NFL worthy. QB Willis attempted five passes in his last game, which was one more pass than the number of times he was sacked! He was heavily sacked in college and has zero pocket presence.

The other available QB is raw rookie Will Levis. He took 46 sacks playing in 11 games in his last year at Kentucky, rushing for -107 yards.

Bottom line: Tannehill is doubtful for this week and if he misses any extended time then the Titans could be headed for a downward spiral. Look for lower scoring games and far fewer pass attempts if Tannehill is not in the lineup.

NOTE: CB Kevin Byard was traded on Monday. He was the leader of their secondary. The Titans may be in “sell” mode before the trading deadline, signaling a focus on rebuilding for the future rather than competing in the present.

NFL Week 8 Game of the Week – Bengals vs 49ers

Minnesota’s win over San Francisco on Monday Night was huge for the Vikings, putting them right back in the wildcard race.

I note this because a Cincinnati victory over this same 49er team might have the same effect. The bye week for Cincinnati comes at just the right time.

Joe Burrow will likely be healthy for the 1st time in 2023, while workhorse RB Joe Mixon also needed the break, especially with no talent behind him.

As for San Fran, they have a short week to heal before this game. RB McCaffrey will likely suit up once again, but stud tackle Trent Williams and versatile WR Deebo Samuel did not play on Monday and their status for this game is unknown as of this writing.

Through seven games, SF has just 15 defensive sacks (44 last season) and while they have held opponents to just under four yards per carry, this figure is worse than last year’s excellent 3.4 yards per carry allowed.

Still, San Fran has a significant run edge in this game based on my comprehensive stat sheet analysis. The question is this: Will they be able to take advantage of this edge given the significant rest game differential which exists?

My early game key for Cincinnati is hoping Joe Mixon can run for 70+ yards, which would create some passing lanes that a near healthy Joe Burrow can take advantage of.

My early game key for San Fran is hoping Brock Purdy breaks out of his two-game “slump” vs. a Bengal’s pass defense that is better than people might think (exceptional 59% defense in 2022, top five pass defense in 2023 at 61%).

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with @lasvegascris.

Get GoldSheet for Football Betting Tips All Year and Best Bets Today

The Football GoldSheet newsletter is now available for purchase at WagerTalk! From Week 0, in college football all the way through the Super Bowl, get expert analysis, box score recaps, power ratings and much more from the country’s oldest and most popular sports betting newsletter.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen NFL

WagerTalk’s live NFL odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the run spreads, totals and betting percentages for all NFL games.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

• Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
• Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
• Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!