Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning Game 5 Prediction and Betting Odds June 24

Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning Game 4 Preview

WagerTalk NHL handicapper Kevin Dolan offers his thoughts on Friday’s Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning Stanley Cup Finals Game 5. Colorado won Game 4 in exciting fashion 3-2 in overtime and hope to lift the Stanley Cup at home at the end of this game.

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Friday, June 24	NHL Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars
Moneyline:	Colorado Avalanche -180 vs Tampa Bay Lightning +160
Puckline:	Avalanche -1.5 (+150) / Lightning +1.5 (-170)
Total:	6 Goals (Over -105 / Under -115)
Game Time:	8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Arena:	Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL
TV:	ABC

Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning Analysis

Two-time current NHL Stanley Cup champions the Tampa Bay Lightning find themselves in a huge hole on Friday night as they face elimination from this year’s finals with the Colorado Avalanche needing only one more win to secure an historic Stanley Cup title for the first time in over 21 years.

The Avalanche have three more chances in which to get that win but will be aware of the threat Tampa Bay pose if they’re allowed to build up a head of steam in this series, something they showed in the recent New York Rangers series.

Colorado have won five of their six meetings against Tampa Bay this season and are an impressive 59-13 in their last 72 games when installed as a home favorite also.

Lightning Just Not Having Luck Go Their Way

Tampa Bay haven’t had the best of luck over this series so far, with two Colorado goals coming off both Nathan MacKinnon’s skate and Andrew Cogliano’s leg to give them the edge in a Game 4 contest Tampa Bay owned the shot count in.

That’s been the tale for Colorado as a whole this season with the Avalanche benefitting from the league’s #1 expected goal differential this year along with an almost 2% shots to goal conversion boost over the Lightning over these playoffs as well.

Tampa Bay will hope some of that fortune the Avalanche have enjoyed finally goes their way here on Friday, especially if they’re going to have a chance of victory in this series.

Colorado Continue Red-Hot Power Play Run

We briefly covered Colorado’s impressive power play conversion percentage in Wednesday’s Game 4 breakdown and the Avalanche continue to find ways to increase that percentage even further.

Nathan MacKinnon’s opening goal for the visitors in Wednesday’s Game 4 came off yet another power play situation, and the Avalanche have now improved to a red-hot 34.48% playoff power play conversion percentage over these playoffs so far.

To put that into some perspective, President’s Trophy winners the Florida Panthers had a 3.23% conversion percentage in the playoffs this season and last year’s Stanley Cup finalists the Montreal Canadiens owned an 18.87% conversion percentage also.

Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction

Only the St. Louis Blues have been able to take any home games off the Colorado Avalanche this season and we don’t expect that to change here on Friday.

The Blues took Games 2 & 5 from Colorado in Denver, one of them a close 5-4 OT win for St. Louis in which the Avalanche enjoyed the higher number of shots in.

But that success for St. Louis was highly fortunate as well as the Blues rank only behind the Avalanche this season in terms of overall expected goal differential, a metric that most accurately represents ‘luck’ in hockey (a team’s conversion rate of inordinately good chances).

St. Louis were also converting over 30% of their power play playoff chances this season as well, so that’s two significant metrics where the Blues held a decided advantage over the Lightning in this year (Tampa Bay have a PP conversion percentage of just 19.74% over the playoffs so far and have a -12 expected goal differential against St. Louis this season also).

Even with a best effort here tonight from the Lightning, Tampa Bay are riding some injuries into tonight’s Game 5, especially on defense, and if luck doesn’t go their way here on Friday yet again, we could well see the Avalanche lift their first Stanley Cup since the 2000/01 season.

Prediction: Colorado Avalanche Moneyline -180

NHL Betting Guide

Thanks to the ever-expanding sports betting industry, there are now a variety of ways to attack the betting market outside of the traditional point spreads, moneylines and totals. Few sports have seen an increase of betting popularity like hockey, and we now have several different ways to wager on the NHL and international leagues. Check out our NHL Betting Guide with helpful terms and tips for novice bettors.

Puck Time | NHL Stanley Cup Predictions for June 24

Join Carmine Bianco and Andrew McInnis for Wednesday’s edition of Puck Time as our panel of professional hockey handicappers break down Stanley Cup Finals Game 4 between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NHL moneylines, puck lines and betting percentages for all of the NHL playoff action, including this Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning Game 5 showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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Meet the Author

‘The sharpest sports mind in Ireland’ is how one prominent newspaper dubbed Kevin Dolan after he became the first foreigner ever to win the World Series of Handicapping tournament back in 2015. “The Irishman” made his start wagering on GAA, football, soccer and boxing, all to immense success. Since becoming a professional bettor, he has since lit up the sports betting scene in the U.S. and abroad, winning two handicapping awards and writing a best-selling book on sports handicapping named ‘The Complete Guide to Sports Betting’.

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