Stars vs Golden Knights: Series Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds
Stars vs Golden Knights Odds and Prediction Preview
WagerTalk NHL handicapper Andy Lang gives his Stars vs Golden Knights series picks and predictions before Friday puck drop at 8:30pm ET. Two of the three regular season matchups between the Stars and Golden Knights went into a shootout with the Stars winning all three games.
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Stars vs Golden Knights Betting Odds
| NHL Western Conference Finals Notes | |
|---|---|
| Moneyline To Win Series: | Dallas Stars +115 vs Vegas Golden Knights -135 |
| Series Spread: | Stars +1.5 Games (-185) / Golden Knights -1.5 Games (+150) |
| Series Total Games: | Four (+600) Five (+275) Six (+200) Seven (+200) |
| Most Goals in Series: | Jack Eichel +550 (Odds Above From DraftKings) |
| Featured Prop Bet: | Jack Eichel to Score 5+ Goals in Series (+500) |
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Stars vs Golden Knights Betting Analysis
The Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights will face-off in the NHL Western Conference Finals, with the winner earning a chance at the Stanley Cup.
The best of seven series will begin Friday night at T-Mobile Arena in Vegas. The Pacific Division champion Golden Knights finished the regular season with a 52-21-9 record and 111 points.
It only took five games for the Golden Knights to eliminate the Winnipeg Jets in the first round, followed by a six-game series victory over the Edmonton Oilers in the second round.
The Dallas Stars finished the regular season with a 47-21-14 record and 108 points, earning themselves the #4 seed in the process.
The Stars prevailed over the Minnesota Wild in six games in the first round before being taken to the limit in Game 7 by the Seattle Kraken in the second round. Dallas managed to go a perfect 3-0 against Vegas during the 2022-23 campaign but there were a pair a one goal games along the way.
The first two victories came on the road with a 4-0 shutout in January followed by a 3-2 shootout win in February. The third and final victory came at home where the Stars won another shootout 2-1.
Like the Eastern Conference Final, there is a coaching storyline as Bruce Cassidy is in his first-year coaching Vegas after replacing current Dallas coach Pete DeBoer. DeBoer was fired after failing to make the post-season in the 2021-22 season.
Stars vs Golden Knights – Playoff Point Leaders
Stars
•Roope Hintz 19 points
•Jason Robertson 12 points
•Max Domi 11 points
•Joe Pavelski 10 points
•Jamie Benn 10 points
Golden Knights
•Jack Eichel 14 points
•Mark Stone 12 points
•Chandler Stephenson 10 points
•John Marchessault 10 points
•Ivan Barbashev 9 points
Stars vs Golden Knights Offense
The Stars strength is their depth with three solid scoring lines and a hard-nosed checking trio. They have the Conn Smythe favorite in Roope Hintz, who sits just a point behind Connor McDavid with 19 points (9 goals).
Jason Robertson has 12 points despite not scoring a single goal against Seattle and Max Domi was a great pickup at the deadline with 11 points.
Joe Pavelski missed most of the first round but still has 10 points after scoring 4 points in his return. Dallas also has great secondary scorers in Tyler Seguin, Evgenii Dadonov, Mason Marchment and Wyatt Johnston.
Jack Eichel and Mark Stone lead the Knights with 14 and 12 points respectively and both sit in the top ten for playoff scoring.
Chandler Stephenson and John Marchessault both scored double digits while Ivan Barbashev was right behind him with 9 points. They also have solid depth with Brett Howden and Michael Amadio.
Dallas has the best power play percentage of any team left around at 31.7%, while sitting second behind Carolina with a 83.3% penalty kill percentage.
Vegas has a league leading 66.7% goals for percentage at 5-on-5 while outscoring opponents 30-15. They are middle of the pack in most other categories including power play goals but they are very efficient. The slight advantage goes to Dallas by an extremely close margin.
Stars vs Golden Knights Defense
The Golden Knights are middle of the pack at 8th with 28.42 shots against per game. The Vegas blue line is deep and led by Alex Pietrangelo & Alec Martinez while Brayden McNabb & Shea Theodore make a solid second pairing. They are very aggressive but Pietrangelo, Whitecloud and Hague all have double digit penalty minutes.
This is where the Stars shine as Dallas has allowed the fewest expected goals per 60 minutes in the playoffs with 2.19.
It helps having a young superstar like Miro Heiskanen, who is playing heavy minutes while scoring 73 points in the regular season and recording 9 assists in the playoffs.
This blue line is very deep with veterans like Ryan Suter, Esa Lindell & Colin Miller and young talents like Joel Hanley & Thomas Harley.
This is a close matchup as both sides can generate scoring chances, but Dallas has the advantage as they have a better shutdown game. However, a couple of brutal starts skewed those numbers and his bounce back performances are more indicative of what he’s capable of.
Stars vs Golden Goaltending & Injuries
Few goaltenders in the NHL can outperform Jake Oettinger, but his .901 save percentage and -4.16 goals saved above average in the playoffs put him near the bottom of the league in both categories.
However, a couple of brutal starts skewed those numbers and his bounce back performances are more indicative of what he’s capable of.
Adin Hill was acquired in late August of last season to add depth behind Logan Thompson, Laurent Brossoit and Johnathan Quick.
However, Thompson’s injury has kept him out for the playoffs and Brossoit went down with a lower body injury in Game 3.
Vegas turned to Hill instead of Quick and he posted a .947 save percentage and 2.92 GAA in just five games. It’s a short sample size so the question is, if Thompson returns will they stick with Hill?
The Golden Knights are quite healthy outside of their injury concerns surrounding the two goalies in Thompson and Brossoit. Forward Nolan Patrick and goaltender Robin Lehner haven’t skated yet this season, so neither will be involved.
The Stars in a great shape as their lone injury concern is veteran defenseman Jani Hakanpaa who is currently out after missing a few games in the second round with a lower body injury.
Stars vs Golden Knights Expert Prediction
Bookmakers have made Vegas a small favorite to win the series at -135 odds with the underdog price set at +115 for Dallas. Both teams have made underdog trips to the Stanley Cup final over the past five years but they are now among the favorites and both have strong cases to reach the finals.
The Golden Knights know the time is now as they spent significant assets to acquire players like Eichel and knocking off McDavid and Draisaitl had to give them a confidence boost.
The Stars missed the playoffs last season after nearly going the distance in the bubble year. But they have become one of the most dynamic teams in the league behind Robertson, Heiskanen and Oettinger.
Even though it took Dallas seven games to eliminate Seattle, they are absolutely stacked and deep at every position.
Like I predicted in the Eastern Conference, I see this one going down to the wire, but I have the Stars coming out on top in a Game 7. Let’s make the main play on Dallas at plus money with a sprinkle on them winning it in seven at +550.
Series Prediction:
Dallas Stars Win Series +115 DraftKings
Dallas Stars Win Series 4-3 +550 (Small Play) DraftKings
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Puck Time | NHL Betting Preview For May 18
Join Carmine Bianco and Bryan Leonard for Puck Time as our panel of professional hockey handicappers break down tonight’s NHL betting card. Join the Puck Time crew every week day at 11am ET / 8am PT as we discuss the NHL betting slate from a variety of handicapping angles.
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Meet the Author
Andy Lang has lived in Indianapolis his whole life, and like most people from the Hoosier State, he became fascinated with motor sports. That interest in motor sports turned into a desire to make money off the sport through fantasy contests and sports betting. Like most, he took his lumps when he first got started, but now he is one of the most respected NASCAR bettors in the industry. Andy has expanded that sports betting experience to become profitable in a number of other sports, transforming this interest from a side hobby to a major source of income.
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