World Cup 2023 Group D Betting Preview – Rugby Picks, Predictions and Odds
Rugby World Cup 2023 Betting Predictions – Group D
Rugby World Cup 2023 kicks off in France on September 8th and Rugby betting expert Kevin Dolan gives his thoughts on the various groups (pools), and where the betting value lies in respect to who will come out on top and progress through to the knockout rounds.
Pool D is a fairly complex group overall consisting of 2003 World Cup winners England, 2007 3rd placed finishers Argentina, two solid teams in Chile and Samoa respectively, and is rounded out by Japan who reached their first-ever quarter-final back in the 2019 World Cup.
Below we’ll go over each team’s odds to win the group and who we expect to progress through to the knockout rounds.
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| Group D Countries | Odds to Win Group D (DraftKings) |
|---|---|
| England | -300 |
| Argentina | +225 |
| Japan | +2000 |
| Samoa | +15000 |
| Chile | +100000 |
England (-300)
No surprise to see 2019’s World Cup finalists England go in as the prohibitive favorites to win this group, however, it’s not without caution, as the English have struggled immensely over the last twelve months, both in their roster make-up and results on the field.
England finished off 2022 with a lopsided loss against South Africa, a team who have had their number in both the 2007 and 2019 World Cup finals.
Those poor stretch of results to see out last year then led to the dismissal of head coach Eddie Jones who has subsequently moved back to take over his native Australia.
Steve Borthwick has since taken over as English head coach, but his short tenure in charge hasn’t yielded much fruit as of yet, with England slumping badly in the recent Six Nations finishing 4th overall, and getting absolutely blown out by the French in a 53-10 demolition at home, their worst ever result in a Twickenham international.
The good news for England however is that they find themselves on the easier side of the draw in this tournament, and are always a dangerous proposition when they get some momentum behind them also.
With players such as formidable ball-carrier Ellis Genge, two-time European Player of the Year Owen Farrell, and Leicester Tigers fullback Freddie Steward, the English have genuine game-changers in their roster, and combined with their obvious experience at this level, the English shouldn’t be underestimated from making a deep run in this competition.
Argentina (+225)
Arguably one of the real dark horses ahead of this year’s tournament, Argentina have been playing some of the most impressive rugby out of any team on the planet over the last year, and it would not be at all surprising to see them top this group as a result.
Argentina beat both Australia and New Zealand in back-to-back games last August, following that up with an impressive win against the English in Twickenham as well.
Those successes have shown just how capable this Pumas side is, with not much separating the big boys in Pools C & D on this side of the draw, with England, Australia, and Argentina ranking 6th, 7th, and 8th in the world respectively.
In the likes of Marcos Kremer and Emiliano Boffelli, the Argentinians possess genuine elite-level talent, and with Steve Borthwick still finding his feet in the England role, Argentina will no doubt feel confident of upsetting the applecart in this group and handing England their second straight defeat in what’s set to be an extremely tantalizing opening day clash in Pool D on September 9th in Marseille.
Japan (+2000)
For a team who had managed just one solitary win in World Cup history prior to 2015, the Brave Blossoms have certainly come on in leaps and bounds over the last two World Cup competitions.
Japan stunningly upset the Springboks of South Africa in their opening game of the 2015 World Cup, coming out on top in a tense 34-32 back-and-forth game in what has arguably gone down as the biggest upset in rugby union history.
The Japanese then followed this success up with an even better 2019 showing, topping the group with wins against both Ireland and Scotland before eventually succumbing to their former foes South Africa in the quarter-finals.
Scheduling-wise, Japan benefits ahead of this year’s World Cup, facing Chile in their opening game, allowing them to potentially build up some momentum ahead of their much tougher second-round clash against England, and they also have one of the longest rest and recovery periods in between games out of any nation as well, which is a huge bonus considering the obvious physicality of the sport.
Can Japan pull off another ‘Brighton Miracle’ and unseat the two big boys in this group? Stranger things have happened and at +2200, there are definitely worse bets than backing the Brave Blossoms to potentially show us their magic once again in this year’s tournament.
Samoa (+15000) & Chile (+100000)
Despite the relative openness of the group, both Samoa and Chile aren’t expected to do much by the bookies in Group D, with both sides going off at some huge odds ahead of this year’s World Cup.
Chile qualified for their first-ever World Cup after narrowly edging out the USA 52-51 on aggregate to qualify in the Americas 2 position.
Head coach Pablo Lemoine was vastly experienced as a player and has already guided this Chilean national squad to some fantastic results as a coach, beating both Canada and Uruguay in recent years.
That said, with a roster of players that plies their trade primarily in the Chilean domestic league, and facing four other nations with vastly greater international experience on the world stage also, it would be a monumental shock if Chile were able to get out of this group.
In terms of Samoa, while they’ve historically been a force in world rugby, reaching the quarter-finals twice during the 1990s, they’ve nevertheless seen those glory days get further and further away in the rearview mirror, failing to get out of the group stage in any of the last five World Cups.
However, Samoa, like Tonga and Fiji before them, has benefitted immensely from the recent eligibility rule changes in rugby, bringing in the likes of Titi Lamositele from the USA, and Christian Leali’ifano from Australia to bolster their squad, along with numerous other high-level players from New Zealand and beyond also.
That should strengthen this squad overall before the upcoming World Cup, but probably not enough to make any real impact in this group, and like Chile, it would be a huge surprise to see Samoa qualify from this pool.
Rugby World Cup 2023 Group D Final Standings Prediction
- Argentina
- England
- Japan
- Samoa
- Chile
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