2021 MLS Playoffs Betting Preview

MLS Playoffs Picks, Predictions and Odds

WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the upcoming 2021 MLS Playoffs, which kick off on Friday, November 19. The defending champion Columbus Crew failed to make the MLS Playoffs so there will be a new champion crowned this year.

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2021 MLS Cup Betting Preview

• For the first time ever, the MLS Playoffs feature seven teams from each conference.
• The New England Revolution captured the regular season championship with 73 points – 19 more than the second-place teams in the Eastern Conference.

I’ll start with the top team in each conference, who are expectedly the two betting favorites thanks to a first round bye and home-field advantage thru to the final. For New England, they will host the final should they make it that far while Colorado will host if New England fail to get there.

New England Revolution

Available between +225 to +333
The Revolution set an MLS record with a 22-7-5 record, earning 73 points. They scored the most goals in the league, netting 65 thru 34 regular season games, but conceded 41 which was good for only sixth in the East.

At the current number of +225 at DraftKings, I wouldn’t give them much of a look to lift the trophy. You can find them at +333 at Bet365 which is obviously better, but still not enough to get me to the ticket window. While they clearly got the results this season, which is all that matters, what worries me is that 18 of their 22 wins were by one goal and winning that many games by one goal is often more luck than it is skill. We know they can score, but I don’t trust defense as they allowed 1.40 xGA this season which ranked 14th in the league and is not the recipe for winning the MLS Cup. At their current number, you might as well look to just bet them in individual matches along the way.

Colorado Rapids

Available between +350 to +450
The Rapids stole the West with two wins in their final two games while Seattle settled for two draws allowing Colorado to win the conference by just one point. Colorado come in with a 17-10-7 record and a 51:35 goal differential. They rank No. 8 in the league with a +0.22 xG differential per game and have the fifth-lowest xGA number at 1.24.

Colorado does have a better home-field advantage that most, playing at altitude, where they registered just one loss this entire season at 9-7-1 with a +17 goal differential. I’m seeing Colorado as high as +450 at Bet365 and at that price, I’d be ok putting a few bucks on them to come out of the West purely because of that home-field advantage. That one negative is that they don’t have much playoff experience like say, the Seattle Sounders.

If not the Top Seeds, Who Else?

There is little arguing the East was the better conference this year. All seven teams that qualified have positive goal differentials as well as three teams that were left out including DC United, Columbus and Montreal. The West had just six teams with a positive goal differential with two teams, Minnesota qualifying with a negative goal differential and Vancouver qualifying with a dead even differential. The only other team I would give any consideration to coming out of the West would have to be Seattle because of their experience, but they have limped into these playoffs and blew the No. 1 seed going winless in their final six games with three draws and three losses.

Looking purely at the table, you might not be inclined to look at New York City FC but that’s a mistake as NYCFC led the MLS with a +0.78 xG differential. Additionally, they averaged 15.2 shots per game (No. 2) and 5.5 shots on goal (No. 1) while allowing just 9.5 shots per game (No. 1) and 3.7 shots on goal (No. 5). You can currently find NYCFC anywhere from +900 at DraftKings to +1200 at Bet365.

As the No. 4 seed, they host their first game, but were a bit unlucky facing Atlanta who come in hot, unbeaten in their last six and winning 11 of their last 17. Atlanta turned their season around at the halfway point. In their first 16 games of the season, Atlanta had a -0.41 xG differential per game averaging just 1.09 xG while allowing 1.50 xGA. Over their final 18 games beginning with a draw against Montreal, Atlanta had a +0.35 xG differential per game, averaging 1.60 xG and allowing only 1.25 xGA. Atlanta have a huge disparity in their price, currently listed at +1600 at Bet365 but you can find them all the way up to +3500 at DraftKings. If they can make it past NYCFC, you will be holding a very nice ticket on the twice-removed MLS Cup Champions.

Whatever you decide to do, make sure you shop around for the best price as these MLS Cup futures are quite different from book to book. Enjoy the playoffs and good luck with your wagers!

Soccer Betting Guide

What’s the difference between the two-way and three-way line in soccer betting? What does the Asian handicap mean? If the game ends in a draw, do you get your money back? Check out our Soccer Betting Guide to become more familiar with the nuances of betting on soccer.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, goal spreads and totals for this week’s MLS Playoffs from your desktop or phone.

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