2022-23 La Liga Top 4 Predictions and Odds
La Liga Top 4 Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Kevin Dolan shares his betting preview around how the Spanish season is shaping up. The 2022-23 La Liga season kicks off on Saturday, August 13 with Real Madrid looking to defend their domestic title, as well as the UEFA Champions League crown.
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2022-23 La Liga Top 4 Odds Analysis
Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla all made up the top four teams in La Liga last year and it’s no surprise to see them being installed as the favorites ahead of this season as well.
Villarreal, Real Sociedad and Real Betis make up the chasing pack and we’ll look to analyze those teams chances along with any outsider picks for this season as well.
Were The Top 4 Justified Last Season?
For the most part yes as Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid all finished with at least a 5xPTS gap over their nearest rivals, but at best price -300 for Atletico to repeat their top 4 feat this year, there’s little to recommend from a betting standpoint.
Sevilla were the outliers finishing all the way down in 7th on xPTS and after a hot start where they sat joint 2nd in the league on November 1st, things started to drift for them from that point of the season on.
Despite having the league’s best overall defense last year allowing just 0.79 goals per game, Sevilla ranked bottom half in the table from March 1st on in terms of overall xGA on defense and all that leads us to fading Sevilla in pursuit of a top four finish for this season.
So Who Makes Up The Numbers?
Real Sociedad came out like a jet engine last season and were sitting in top spot in the league by November 1st. From that point of the season on however they ranked as just the 8th best team overall as the rigors of multiple competitions started to take their toll.
Villarreal had a nice record themselves to finish out the domestic season, going unbeaten across 14 of their final 20 games and ranking as the 4th best team in the league overall in 2022.
Real Betis finished the season in 5th last year, just 5 points shy of 4th placed Sevilla, so on the surface at least they look like the most obvious candidates to push one step ahead and claim a top four spot for this season.
However, Betis vastly outperformed the data from last season, ranking as the 8th best team overall going by xPTS and the 9th best team over 2022 in that same category. Another major push into top four territory therefore is unlikely here.
2022-23 Spanish La Liga Top 4 Odds Prediction
While both Real Sociedad and Villarreal look like solid contenders to finish inside the top four this season, we’re going to look a little further down the list to find even better value and look at taking Athletic Bilbao at +600 as our pick for a top 4 finish this season.
Only 1.23 xPTS separated Real Sociedad, Villarreal and Athletic Bilbao last year and Bilbao finished with the league’s 3rd best xGA rating on defense as well behind only Barcelona and Atletico Madrid.
At home Bilbao have consistently been one of the best teams in the league with a strong Basque home record and that led them to having the 2nd best xPTS tally in the league last season at home and 1st from the start of February onwards.
We like the value with Athletic Bilbao this season to finish inside the top four in LaLiga at odds of +600.
Prediction: Athletic Bilbao Finishes Top 4 +600
2022-23 La Liga Title Odds
La Liga title odds below courtesy of DraftKings as of Tuesday, July 19:
| Team | 2022-23 La Liga Title Odds |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid | +110 |
| Barcelona | +150 |
| Atletico Madrid | +500 |
| Sevilla | +2000 |
| Villarreal | +4000 |
| Valencia | +5000 |
| Real Sociedad | +6500 |
| Real Betis | +10000 |
| Athletic Bilbao | +20000 |
| Getafe | +45000 |
| Espanyol | +50000 |
| Celta Vigo | +50000 |
| Vallecano | +100000 |
| Osasuna | +100000 |
| Valladolid | +100000 |
| Mallorca | +100000 |
| Elche | +100000 |
| Cadiz | +100000 |
| Girona | +100000 |
| Almeria | +100000 |
2022-23 European Soccer Previews
Click Here for Premier League Relegation Odds
Click Here for Premier League Title Odds
Click Here for Premier League Top-6 Analysis
Click Here for Premier League Golden Boot Analysis
Click Here for Italian Serie A Title Odds
Click Here for La Liga Title Odds
Soccer Betting 101
New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.
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Meet the Author
‘The sharpest sports mind in Ireland’ is how one prominent newspaper dubbed Kevin Dolan after he became the first foreigner ever to win the World Series of Handicapping tournament back in 2015. “The Irishman” made his start wagering on GAA, football, soccer and boxing, all to immense success. Since becoming a professional bettor, he has since lit up the sports betting scene in the U.S. and abroad, winning two handicapping awards and writing a best-selling book on sports handicapping named ‘The Complete Guide to Sports Betting’.
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