2022-23 Serie A Relegation Odds
Serie A Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Kevin Dolan shares his thoughts on how the Italian Serie A relegation market is shaping up prior to the 2022-23 season. The team that finished third and needed a playoff to qualify out of Serie B last season is actually favored to stay up over the two teams that finished ahead of them last year.
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Serie B Newcomers
Newly-promoted Lecce and Cremonese make up the top two favorites for the drop this year over in Serie A with the team who avoided relegation by the slimmest of margins, Salernitana, coming in as third favorites.
The team that finished third in Serie B and was forced to qualify through the playoff route, Monza, is actually highly-favored to stay up this year.
That’s because the ‘Brianzoli’ have added extensively in the summer transfer window bringing in players from the likes of Cagliari, Inter and Benfica to bolster their squad ahead of the new Serie A campaign.
Who Bounces Back And Who Sinks Even Further?
Salernitana, Sampdoria and Spezia all narrowly avoided the drop last season, finishing in the immediate three places above last year’s relegated teams. But where does the data suggest they should have finished?
According to xPTS, Salernitana should already be relegated this season as they finished with the second-worst xPTS tally in the league last year, ahead of only last-place Venezia.
Sampdoria similarly, while not quite as bad overall as Salernitana, was absolutely dreadful over the back half of the season, ranking as the second worst team from January 1st on.
Spezia avoided both categories, although not by much, so will no doubt feel confident of surviving the drop ahead of this season also.
2022-23 Serie A Relegation Odds
Salernitana is a solid pick to go down this year with their overall sub-par numbers but did rally late on last season and at odds of +125, we just don’t see much value in backing them for relegation at the current line.
Empoli is another team who finished bottom-three last year in overall expected points and expected goals against on defense, not just in terms of the full season, but also from January to May as well, and does provide some excellent value to go down this season at odds between +150 and +165.
However, the best value on the board arguably belongs with Sampdoria who will no doubt be eager to turn their miserable fortunes around from the back end of last season with a much better showing this year.
To that end, the ‘Blucerchiati’ has added players such as Tomas Rincon and Francesco Caputo in the off-season to bolster their chances of survival as their attacking options continue to age over at the Luigi Ferraris.
Whether those additions will be enough or not is hard to say and although there is still plenty of time before the end of the transfer window, getting +300 on a team who finished as poorly as Sampdoria did last season, with their age factor especially in attack continuing to be a major concern, does present some compelling value in backing them to go down this season.
Take Sampdoria as your relegation play for this season’s Serie A campaign.
Serie A relegation odds below courtesy of DraftKings as of Monday, July 25:
| Team | 2022-23 Serie A Relegation Odds |
|---|---|
| Cremonese | -150 |
| Lecce | -110 |
| Salernitana | +125 |
| Spezia | +150 |
| Empoli | +150 |
| Sampdoria | +300 |
| Monza Brianza | +400 |
| Bologna | +500 |
| Udinese | +600 |
| Torino | +600 |
| Verona | +800 |
| Sassuolo | +1100 |
| Fiorentina | +4000 |
| Lazio | +6500 |
| Atalanta | +10000 |
| AS Roma | +15000 |
| Napoli | +15000 |
| AC Milan | +80000 |
| Inter Milan | +100000 |
| Juventus | +100000 |
2022-23 European Soccer Previews
Click Here for Premier League Relegation Odds
Click Here for Premier League Title Odds
Click Here for Premier League Top-6 Analysis
Click Here for Premier League Golden Boot Analysis
Click Here for Italian Serie A Title Odds
Click Here for La Liga Title Odds
Soccer Betting 101
New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.
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Meet the Author
‘The sharpest sports mind in Ireland’ is how one prominent newspaper dubbed Kevin Dolan after he became the first foreigner ever to win the World Series of Handicapping tournament back in 2015. “The Irishman” made his start wagering on GAA, football, soccer and boxing, all to immense success. Since becoming a professional bettor, he has since lit up the sports betting scene in the U.S. and abroad, winning two handicapping awards and writing a best-selling book on sports handicapping named ‘The Complete Guide to Sports Betting’.
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