2022 MLS Betting Preview

MLS Predictions and Odds

The MLS is back with the 2022 season kicking off on Saturday, February 26 as New York City FC begin the quest to defend their title. WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his MLS season preview from a betting perspective.

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The Defending Champs

Once again, the MLS has expanded for the 2022 season as Charlotte FC have joined the league, making it 28 teams, and re-balancing the conferences at 14 teams each.

NYCFC were a surprise to some, coming from the fourth seed in the East to lift the MLS trophy, but it you were paying attention to the numbers, it was no surprise as they led the MLS with a +0.78 xG differential per game. They also were No. 2 in the league in both shots for and shots allowed.

In the 2020 COVID-shortened season, they ranked No. 7 in xG while in 2019 they were No. 3 and overall, the league has stayed rather consistent with teams ranking at or near the top without huge jumps or falls in the standings from one year to the next, well, except for Toronto’s horrible season last year of course.

Who will Feast in the East?

To figure out the 2022 season, we will start with looking at last year’s xG data while of course analyzing, as best as we can, the additions and departures for each team.

The New England Revolution come in as the favorites out of the Eastern Conference priced around +700. I faded them in the playoffs last year as they were the biggest overperformer on the season, ranking No. 3 in xG differential yet winning the East by an insane 19 points. They won just about every one-goal game they played, and it was just unsustainable. They will be a good team once again, but I don’t think they are worth the price tag.

Next, we have the defending champs, New York City FC, and their Golden Boot winner, Valentin Castellanos, priced around +1000 at most books. An easy pick for sure, but considering the last team to repeat as champs was the LA Galaxy in 2011-12, I’ll pass on taking them at this point. However, Castellanos is listed at +800 to win the Golden Boot once again, the fourth-favorite to do so, and a solid option.

Rounding out the top-3, and the team I have circled, is the Philadelphia Union at +1600, who were agonizingly close last year, falling in the semifinals to the eventual champions. They ranked No. 7 in the league with a +0.25 xG differential (just like NYCFC was in 2020) and were very solid defensively, they just lacked the firepower to truly compete.

But Philly addressed that by adding Mikael Uhre this season from Brondy in Denmark who scored 24 goals and added eight assists over his last 38 games for the Danish side, winning the Golden Boot. Assuming we seem the same defense as last year, that may be just enough to get over the hump in 2022.

The Best in the West

Switching focus to the opposite side of the country, we find the Seattle Sounders along with Los Angeles FC listed as favorites with many books flip-flopped by a few bucks on the price. We will start with LAFC, listed around +700, who are always one of the favorites as they have a star- studded lineup headed by Carlos Vela who netted an insane 34 goals just a few seasons ago.

LAFC led the league in creating 1.89 xG per game last season and owned the second-best differential, behind only NYCFC, at +0.63, yet somehow, they missed the playoffs. Don’t bet on that again this year as they will for sure be in line for some positive regression under the direction of new manager Steve Cherundolo.

Next up, the Seattle Sounders, who you can find for +750 at DraftKings. Seattle was devastated with injuries last year yet had the No. 1 seed locked up for quite some time until they ended the regular season on a six-game winless run to lose the top spot to Colorado by one point. They missed out on the first-round bye and were subsequently bounced by Real Salt Lake in the first round even though RSL didn’t register a single shot the entire game. Yes, that is correct 21 shots for Seattle, 0 for Real Salt Lake, the game goes to penalties and RSL moves on. 90’ minutes of soccer can be fickle.

However, this year, they signed arguably the biggest free agent signing in MLS history as Albert Rusnak joins the teams from none other than, Real Salt Lake. Rusnak had 41 goals and 39 assists over the last five seasons for an average of 0.60 G+A per 90 minutes. He joins a roster including Raul Rudiaz, Jordan Morris (who basically missed all of last year), the Roldan brothers, Nouhou and their U22 signing Leo Chu who is poised to be a breakout star. Seattle was No. 1 in xG differential in 2020 and #6 last year despite those injuries. Oh, and they seem to win every three years, 2016, 2019 and 2022?…

Finally, Sporting Kansas City come in as the third favorite out of the West at around +1600 and while they have had solid seasons the last two years, No. 3 in the West last year and No. 1 in 2020, they have some voids that are going to be tough to fill. Starters Ilie Sanchez and Luis Martins are both gone which is a big deal as they relied on Ilie in multiple positions last year. But the worst news of all is that Alan Pulido has been ruled out for all of 2022.

SKC signed Pulido to a 4-year deal back in 2019 (their biggest signing in club history) to fill the role as No. 9 but he’s been injured more than he has played and once again they must adjust without him. Too many question marks for me to jump on Sporting.

2022 MLS Cup Prediction

When all is said and done, we will see Philly and Seattle tango in the big dance with the Union finding a way to lift their first-ever MLS Cup. See you at the ticket window in December!

Interested in placing a bet on MLS opening weekend? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 match bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.

Columbus Crew vs Vancouver Whitecaps Betting Preview

The Crew missed out on a playoff spot last season by one point. Can Columbus start the road back to the post season with an opening weekend win over Vancouver? Nick Borrman shares his thoughts.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features odds from a variety of domestic and offshore sports books. Track the moneylines and totals for all of this weekend’s MLS matches from your desktop or phone.

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