2022 MLS Cup Playoff Odds and Betting Preview
MLS Cup Playoff Preview
The 2022 MLS Cup Playoffs begin on Saturday, October 15, with 14 teams battling to be crowned MLS Cup Champions. WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman shares his thoughts on the playoff field and who has the best chance to lift the trophy in three weeks.
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MLS Cup Playoff Betting Odds
| MLS Cup Playoffs | Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Supporters Shield: | LAFC (Tied with Philadelphia on 67 Points) |
| Betting Favorite: | LAFC +200 (Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| First Game(s): | Saturday, October 15 |
| MLS Cup Final: | Saturday, November 5 |
MLS Cup Playoff Analysis
LAFC earned this year’s Supporters Shield with the most points in the regular season, while the defending champs, NYCFC, look to defend their title coming in as the No. 3 seed in the East.
As expansion continues for MLS, so do changes to the playoff format. This year, seven teams from each conference qualified with the top seed earning a first-round bye. The tournament consists of four single-elimination knockout rounds with the higher seed hosting, including the MLS Cup Final.
If teams are tied after 90 minutes, they will play 30 more minutes of extra time (broken up into two 15-minute halves) and then a penalty shootout, if necessary.
Teams to Target
Before the MLS Season began, I previewed several teams heading into the season. My best bet out of the East was none other than Philadelphia at +1600, while out of the West, I suggested a deep run for Seattle.
Clearly, that was a bad choice as the Sounders failed to make the playoffs, but the other team I suggested in the West was LAFC who was No. 1 in xG differential in 2021 but somehow missed the playoffs and was due for some positive regression this year.
Unfortunately, as it stands now, both of those teams are not worth betting in the futures market as their prices are much too low. Instead, target these teams, which if they can advance past the first two rounds, will provide us with some hedge opportunities.
CF Montreal
Available at +900, Montreal finished the regular season with the fourth-best xG differential in the league at +0.55 per game thanks to their defense which allowed the second-fewest shots per game at just 9.4. Montreal is also coming into the playoffs in terrific form with just one loss over their last 15 matches including 11 wins and three draws, keeping six clean sheets during that stretch.
Besides their quality, it’s also important to look at possible paths for teams to reach the MLS Cup and Montreal’s is very favorable. Obviously, the East will go through Philadelphia, but Montreal hosts an out-of-form Orlando side in the first round, who lost four of their last six games, and also lost 4-1 at Montreal earlier this season.
From there, they most likely host NYCFC who has been a completely different team since the departure of Castellanos. He was the Golden Boot winner from last year and led the MLS again this year with 13 goals before his departure in July. After he left the team, they went on to win just one of their next ten games, but did finish with three straight wins to end the season.
If Montreal reaches the conference semifinals, they would most likely face Philadelphia at which point with only four teams remaining, we could look for hedge opportunities.
FC Dallas
Available at +1800. Like Montreal, Dallas is setup to avoid the No. 1 seed (LAFC) until the conference finals. Their first-round opponent is Minnesota who limped into the playoffs by earning a win on Decision Day after going winless in their previous six matches with one draw and five losses. Minnesota also struggled away from home with a 6-1-10 away record this season.
In Round 2, Dallas would face the winner of Austin and Real Salt Lake with Austin as the favorite to advance. Of course, hosting RSL would be the better option as Salt Lake had just three wins away from home this season, but traveling to Austin is still a very winnable game for Dallas.
Austin stormed out of the gate to lead the West for the first half of the season, but really faded over the last three months with just four wins in their final 14 matches and just one in their last seven. They overperformed the first half of the season as their xG differential was not that impressive at just +0.06 per game, but over their final 14, that dropped to -0.20 and so did their results.
Stoppage Time | Premier League Betting Tips
Very few people would have predicted that there would already be 13 points of separation between Manchester City and Liverpool heading into Match Day 10. Can the Reds pull off the upset and claw back into the Premier League race? Join Kevin Dolan, Pavlos Laguretos and Nick Borrman for Stoppage Time as we preview this weekend’s marquee matchups in the EPL.
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Meet the Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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