2023 MLS Season Betting Preview, Expert Predictions, Futures Picks
MLS Season Betting Analysis
Sportsmemo soccer handicapper Nick Borrman gives his 2023 MLS season betting preview providing you with expert predictions and futures picks which he sees as valuable heading into the first game starting Saturday at 4:30pm ET between Nashville SC and NYCFC.
2023 MLS Season Betting Odds
| 2023 MLS Season | Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| MLS Cup Favorite: | LAFC +400 |
| Top Goal Scorer: | Hany Mukhtar +500 (Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| First Game(s): | Saturday, February 25th |
| MLS Cup Final: | Saturday, December 9th |
2023 MLS Season Betting Preview
The 2023 MLS season is upon us kicking off this Saturday, February 25. Los Angeles FC return as MLS Cup Champions from last season while the Philadelphia Union were the top team from the East.
Don’t expect a big shakeup this season as both clubs have basically returned everybody from last year while adding even more to their rosters.
It’s hard to see any other clubs truly making a run this year. But, hey, this is the MLS. The difference in talent from the top to the bottom isn’t quite as sharp as say, the Premier League.
There are no Manchester City’s here. So, let’s look at who could shake things up and make a run to the MLS Cup Final.
2023 MLS Season Expert Prediction: Eastern Conference
Cincinnati was an offensive force last season scoring 64 goals, 2nd in the East to only Philadelphia and 4th best in the entire MLS. Luciano Acosta, Brandon Vazquez and Brenner were a fantastic trio combing for 46 goals and 33 assists.
All three of them have returned for 2023. Their problem was defensively as they allowed a whopping 56 goals which was the 3rd most in the East and the 6th most in the league. A far cry to say the least from Philadelphia, who allowed only 26.
But they were much improved down the stretch after the additions of Obinna Nwobodo and Matt Miazga. Still, there was room for improvement and that’s exactly what they targeted this offseason.
They signed center back Yerson Mosquera on loan from the Wolverhampton Wolves who is young and has a ton of potential. They also brought in experience with Colombian right wingback Santiago Arias who has played in two World Cups and three Copa Americas.
His Club time was spent with Atletico Madrid and most recently PSV where he won three Eredivisie titles. Finally, they added defensive midfielder Marco Angulo from Ecuador’s Independiente del Valle.
He is only 20 years old and not only bolsters their defense, but is great in transition to further help Cincinnati’s already potent attack.
Cincinnati had the firepower and now could be much improved defensively plus they’ve added depth overall.
They finished 5th in the East last season and could very easily be fighting for the #2 or #3 seed this year. In single elimination playoff matches, they could give anyone trouble just like they did last year beating NY Red Bulls 2-1 in the first round before losing 0-1 to eventual Eastern Conference champions Philadelphia.
Prediction: FC Cincinnati +2500 to Win MLS Cup | +1200 to Win the East
2023 MLS Season Expert Prediction: Western Conference
What a disappointing season it was for Seattle, missing the playoffs for the first time in franchise history which dates back to 2009. But the team was beat up all season.
Raul Ruidiaz missed nearly half the season with injuries and scored just nine goals in 18 matches. He scored 17 goals in 27 matches in 2021 so expect those numbers to return if he can stay healthy.
Christian Roldan missed eight games, Nicolas Lodeiro missed the first month of the season, but Joao Paulo was their biggest loss.
He was injured in their Champions League run and missed the rest of the season. The good news is Jordan Morris was able to stay healthy after coming off a lost 2021.
So, staying healthy is the big “if” this season once again, especially as the team continues to age as so many of their stars are over the age of 30. But when healthy, this team can run with anyone.
I mean they won the Champions League, the first MLS team to ever do so in its current format. But that took a toll on the team as they struggled with depth and juggling both MLS and CCL duties the first two months of the season.
They went 2-1-5 in their first eight matches and were never able to makeup that ground as the season progressed. But the good news is they do not have Champions League duties this season which should help them get off to a better start.
This is largely the same squad as last year with only one key departure as Will Bruin left for Austin FC. His role was mainly a backup to Raul Ruidiaz so he won’t be a big loss if Raul can stay healthy.
They did replace Bruin though with a very good offensive signing who will help free space for Ruidiaz and can be problematic for defenses on his own. Heber joins the Sounders from NYCFC who scored 24 goals in 70 appearances.
Prediction: Seattle Sounders +2000 to Win MLS Cup | +600 to Win the West
2023 MLS Season Expert Prediction: Top Goal Scorer
It was a very tight race last year with Mukhtar (Nashville) netting 23 while Druissi (Austin) and Gazdag (Philadelphia) both finishing on 22. But I like Mukhtar’s chances of repeating his success the most.
Austin signed Gyasi Zardes who scored 10 goals for Colorado last year but was a real threat when he played with Columbus a few seasons ago including scoring 20 in 2018.
Most notably, manager Josh Wolff was also Zardes manager that season so perhaps sparks are reignited during their reunion.
Additionally, Austin were the #1 overperforming team last year when comparing xG to actual goals. They tallied 65 goals on only 50.9 xG. Expect a few less this year.
Philadelphia will once again be a top team in the league which means plenty of goal-scoring chances, but besides Gazdag, Philly has Uhre and Carranza who scored 13 and 14 goals, respectively. While Gazdag was the best, too much competition could spell regression this season.
Which brings us back to Mukhtar who has very little competition for goals and with a key departure from their defense as Dave Romney left for New England, means they may need to rely on Mukhtar to score even more this year.
Prediction: Hany Mukhtar Top Goalscorer +500
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Meet the Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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