2024 MLS Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds - Soccer Betting Preview July 13

MLS Match Betting Preview for July 13

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his July 13 MLS match betting preview with predictions and best bets including FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC and FC Dallas vs Los Angeles Galaxy. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have high or low scoring matches? Read his MLS betting preview now!

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FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC | Saturday, July 13 | 7:30pm ET

Atlanta -155 | Draw +285 | Charlotte FC +340
Asian Handicap: Cincinnati -0.75 | Total: 2.75

Nothing to talk about for this match in terms of missing players for either team, so this simply comes down to one of the most in-form teams in the league, Cincinnati, hosting Charlotte, who has played well at times this season, but are certainly a step down in class and are a team that struggles to create enough chances to win consistently.

After a slow start to the season with just three wins in their first eight matches, Cincinnati has been red hot since with 12 wins over their last 14 matches.

Much of their early season struggles, like many MLS teams, can put a lot of the blame on juggling a busy schedule of MLS matches and Champions Cup midweek games.

Over those first eight matches, they were averaging only 1.16 xG per match as tired legs were certainly playing a part in creating chances.

However, during their current 14-match run, that average has jumped to 1.76 xG. In just their last nine matches, Cincy has scored at least three goals six times with tallies of 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, and most recently 6 against Miami.

On the other side of the ball, their defense has been consistent all season allowing an average of only 1.08 xGA per match which ranks 2nd in the league. That number drops significantly at home to just 0.76.

Charlotte has won their matches this season because of their defense. In one ten-match span, they recorded seven clean sheets including five straight during the month of May. On the road they have kept only two clean sheets through ten matches and because of their inept offense, they have six losses to go along with one draw and three wins.

The concern I have is that I don’t see them slowing down this red-hot Cincinnati offense which has been held to one clean sheet in their last 19 matches and again, have scored a total of 26 goals over just their last nine matches.

MLS Prediction: FC Cincinnati -0.75 (-115)

FC Dallas vs Los Angeles Galaxy | Saturday, July 13 | 8:30pm ET

Dallas +160 | Draw +255 | LA Galaxy +140
Asian Handicap: Pick’em (+0) | Total: 3.0

Dallas has four clean sheets this season, though only one has come over their last 13 matches, conceding a total of 25 goals during that span. In just thhttp://wt.buzz/nbeir last five, they have allowed 12 goals. You clearly can’t count on this team to keep anyone off the scoreboard.

To back up those goals, xG data shows Dallas allowing 1.67 xGA per match which ranks as the 7th worst mark in the league, just barely ahead of, you guessed it, LA Galaxy allowing 1.65. Their results have been worse recently, allowing an average of 2.06 xGA over their last ten matches.

When it comes to scoring, they started the year slowly scoring just barely more than one goal per match, netting a total of 13 goals in their first 12 games.

However, they have certainly seemed to find their stride of late scoring 19 goals over their last ten matches. xG data back those numbers up too, creating 1.35 xG in their first 13, which has skyrocketed to 2.06 over their last ten.

The Galaxy came out of the gates blazing, going 5-3-1 in their first nine matches while scoring a whopping 21 goals. Then things ran a little dry in May, as they were held scoreless in three of five matches, failing to win any.

Since though, 7-0-2 over their most recent nine matches while scoring 19 goals, very similar to how they started the season. xG data backs everything up as well with averages of 1.98 xG (first nine matches), 1.24 (next five), and 1.96 (most recent nine).

During their current run, they did keep three clean sheets in a row against San Jose (worst team in the league) as well as Real Salt Lake and NYCFC, however, they allowed a total of 4.8 xGA in those three matches (1.60 per match), which is right on par with their season average of 1.65 xGA. Meaning they were lucky to keep those clean sheets as they were still allowing quality chances.

Bottom line, we have two leaky defenses squaring up here at a time when both offenses are playing with a ton of confidence and scoring goals. This should produce some fireworks.

MLS Prediction: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 (-130)

Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United | Saturday, July 13 | 8:30pm ET

Houston -165 | Draw +300 | Minnesota +380
Asian Handicap: Houston -0.75 | Total: 2.75

Minnesota is reeling. After a strong start to the season with just three losses in their first 16 matches, they have now lost six games in a row. The international tournaments and injuries have decimated the team and for at least one more match, it doesn’t appear likely to get any better.

Tani Oluwaseyi is away with the Canadian national team, and he remains their leading goal contributor with seven goals and four assists despite him missing the last seven matches, soon to be eight.

Teemu Pukki would have been the most obvious candidate to replace his goal-scoring, but he was injured for the last few weeks with a knee issue and only just returned as a sub against the Galaxy in their most recent match.

He should take on a bigger role for this match, but it seems unlikely he is game speed ready to make a huge impact.

Additional absences include Wil Trapp (M) and each of their first two choice keepers as Dayne St. Clair who started the first 15 matches of the season, is also away with Canada and his replacement, Clinton Irwin, played the next five matches but is out now with injury as well.

After conceding just 20 goals in their first 15 matches and only once allowing more than two goals, Minnesota has now conceded 17 goals over their last seven matches and on three occasions allowed at least three goals scored. If that isn’t an indicator of a team missing their anchor in the net, I don’t know what is.

Houston is coming off a loss at Salt Lake, which is certainly not a bad loss, but that snapped a run of six straight unbeaten. Even including their loss, they have now scored 16 goals over their last seven matches including at least two goals in all but one.

The Dynamo created an average of only 1.04 xG per match in their first 14 games this season, but during that same seven-match run I just mentioned, that has jumped up to 1.69.

They clearly are a team playing with confidence offensively. At home, Houston has just two losses this season and average 1.40 xG per match while allowing just 0.93, while Minnesota’s away xGA has risen all the way to 2.35 on the season!

MLS Prediction: Houston -0.75 (-120)

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