2024 MLS Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds - Soccer Betting Preview June 29

MLS Match Betting Preview for June 29

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his June 29 MLS match betting preview with predictions and best bets including Atlanta United vs Toronto FC and FC Dallas vs FC Cincinnati. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have high or low scoring matches? Read his MLS betting preview Now

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Atlanta United vs Toronto FC | Saturday June 29 | 7:30pm ET

Atlanta -140 | Draw +295 | Toronto +295
Asian Handicap: Atlanta -0.75 | Total: 3.0

Atlanta is without three players due to international duty, Luis Abram (D), Bartosz Slisz (M) and Saba Lobjanidze (F), though there is a chance Slisz is back for this match after Poland was ousted from the Euro Tournament on Tuesday.

Lobjanidze is having a solid season with four goals and three assists which is worrisome, but the three stripes have still managed to get on the scoresheet each of the last two matches.

By the numbers though, Atlanta has proven to be a lethal goal-scoring machine at home netting 19 goals in ten matches, while being held without a goal just one time.

Defensively they have been struggling though. After allowing just one goal in their first three home matches combined, they have since conceded 15 goals over their next seven matches including at least two in all but one of those. First three xGA average: 0.63, last seven xGA average 1.33.

Toronto surprised a lot of people to start the season keeping four clean sheets in their first five matches, earning three wins and a draw along the way.

Actually, over their first 11 matches, Toronto held opponents to one goal or less in seven of them including five clean sheets. However, they also allowed 12 goals in the other four matches, losing all four.

Since then, they have really struggled defensively, conceding at least two goals in seven of nine matches, for a total of 21, keeping only one clean sheet along the way. They also managed to score 14 goals but because of how poor their defense was, they earned just one win.

Finally, Toronto is missing Jonathan Osorio (M) and their starting keeper Sean Johnson which only leaves their defense more suspect. Expect plenty of action in this match.

MLS Prediction: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (-125)

New York Red Bulls vs D.C. United | Saturday June 29 | 7:30pm ET

NY Red Bulls -225 | Draw +340 | D.C. United +475
Asian Handicap: NY Red Bulls -1.0 | Total: 3.0

D.C. United is a fade team right now as they lost yet again last week, 1-4 at home vs Houston which marks their 8th straight winless match. Their defense must take a lot of the blame having conceded 18 goals in those eight games, while keeping no clean sheets. In fact, D.C. has only two clean sheets this season, and none since March.

Offensively has been subpar too, scoring only seven goals during their winless run including being held three times. Aside from Christian Benteke who has scored 14 of the team’s 26 goals, nothing is working for this team.

New York on the other hand has been one of the best defensive teams in the league, especially at home. In two matches, they allowed nine goals to Miami and Columbus, otherwise they have allowed a total of only 16 goals in their other 18 matches. They own the lowest xGA average in the league at only 1.06 per game which drops to a ridiculous 0.59 at home.

Speaking of home, New York’s form in Harrison, New Jersey is near perfect as they have yet to lose with six wins and three draws. They have conceded just five goals in those nine matches and have kept five clean sheets.

When it comes to being impacted by the international break, D.C. has no call-ups, but both the Red Bulls’ starting keeper, Carlos Colonel, and their leading goal-scorer, Morgan Lewis, have been away with their respective national teams.

Missing Lewis would be worrisome, but he is expected back with the Red Bulls this weekend after Scotland’s exit from the Euros, and considering he only played a couple of minutes for the team, he will be fresh for this match.

While he was away, their offense did struggle at first, failing to score in their first two matches before netting five over their most recent two, but they were creating chances in all four games, an average of 1.75. His return will certainly be a boost as he has netted nine goals for the team this season.

MLS Prediction: New York Red Bulls -1.0 (-125)

FC Dallas vs FC Cincinnati | Saturday June 29 | 8:30pm ET

Dallas +140 | Draw +235 | Cincinnati +165
Asian Handicap: Pick’em (+0) | Total: 2.75

Let’s start with the international impact first, or rather lack thereof. For as good as Cincinnati has been, they are without only Miles Robinson due to international duty for this match while Dallas is unaffected with no call-ups.

Dallas is one of the worst teams in the league creating an average of only 1.00 xG per match, which ranks 2nd fewest, just ahead of New England’s 0.98. On the flip side, they allow 1.67 xGA which is the 6th highest average in the league. All that leads to a team with just five wins on the season as they sit five points behind the final playoff spot in the West.

However, things do seem to be getting better. Over their first eight matches, Dallas managed just one win, scoring only seven goals.

Since, they have scored 20 goals in their most recent 11 matches and have four more wins and three draws. While their offense is certainly on the rise, their defense remains poor, consistently conceding goals all season, a total of 31 in 19 matches.

Because of that, Dallas has a 12-7 Over-Under record and a 14-5 BTTS Yes-No record. Cincinnati comes to town as one of the best teams in the league, allowing the 2nd fewest xGA per match at just 1.07, which has them sitting with the 4th best xG differential at +0.39 per game.

Though they are coming off a loss at home to New England last weekend, they are in incredible form with nine wins and two losses over their last 11 matches.

During that run, they have scored 24 goals and scored in all but one, which ironically also came at home, otherwise they have scored at least three goals in four of their last six matches including back-to-back four goal wins on the road at San Jose and at Toronto.

Away from home, Cincinnati has scored in all 11 matches, including two Champions Cup games, winning eight of those.

They are winning those games with their offense as defensively they have allowed 14 goals, keeping only two clean sheets, and thus have an 8-3 record playing this combination. Considering Dallas has scored in all but one home match for a total of 18 goals in nine games, I don’t see Cincinnati keeping a clean sheet here.

MLS Prediction: Parlay Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals (+100)

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