AC Milan vs Napoli Picks, Predictions and Odds Dec 19
AC Milan vs Napoli Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Sunday’s AC Milan vs Napoli Series A showdown. Both teams come into this match after dropping points last weekend. AC Milan settled for a 1-1 draw at Udinese while Napoli inexcusably lost 0-1 at home to lowly Empoli.
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AC Milan vs Napoli Odds
- AC Milan +130
- Napoli +215
- Draw +265
- Total: 2.5 Goals
The beginning of the season was similarly great for both teams. AC Milan flew out of the gates, unbeaten through the end of October with ten wins and a draw in their first 11 games of the season. They were struggling mightily though in Champions League as they lost each of their first three group stage matches and dug themselves too big of a hole to overcome. They were able to get one win and one draw out of their last three group stage games but finished last in the group and failed to even qualify for the Europa League. In pushing for those results though, their league form suffered and overall since the calendar turned to November, AC Milan have just three wins in nine games.
Napoli have been basically a mirror image of AC Milan this season. They too were unbeaten in Serie A through the end of October with the exact same ten wins and one draw record in their first 11 games of the season. They played in the Europa League though instead of the Champions League and were able to generate better results, finishing 2nd in the group and qualifying for the knockout rounds. However, in an eerily similar manner, their overall form has suffered significantly as well, as fixture congestion has been clearly taking its toll with just two wins in their last eight games in all competitions.
Serie A by the Numbers
AC Milan 39 pts | 12-3-2 | 36:19 goal differential
1.66 xG | 1.13 xGA
14.9 Shots for | 4.4 on Goal
10.9 Shots allowed | 3.8 on Goal
Napoli 36 pts | 11-3-3 | 34:13 goal differential
1.62 xG | 0.79 xGA
15.7 Shots for | 5.3 on Goal
10.4 Shots allowed | 3.5 on Goal
A couple things to note here. First, Napoli have the #1 ranked defense according to xGA (expected goals allowed) and have allowed the least amount of actual goals on the season with just 13. That’s easy to see just looking at the table, but what’s not easy to see is the conversion rate at which AC Milan has scored this season.
AC Milan is the #1 team in Serie A in shot conversion rate. That’s the number of times a shot on goal turns into an actual goal. They are averaging one goal for every 2.1 shots on goal while the entire league is averaging one goal for every 3.0 shots on goal. While that sounds like a great thing (I mean it seems like shooting average in basketball for example), it’s actually not. History has proven those type of conversion rates do not last long-term. By the time we get to the end of the season, almost all teams hover with just a few tenths of the league average, which suggests some scoring regression is likely to come for AC Milan.
AC Milan vs Napoli Series History
These teams split the season series last year as AC Milan won 3-1 on the road at Napoli while Napoli returned the favor winning 1-0 in San Siro. The concern though, is that win was the only win for AC Milan in the last 13 league meetings between these teams. Going back even further, AC Milan has just two wins over Napoli in the last 20 league meetings dating back to 2011, while Napoli has ten wins to go along with eight draws.
AC Milan vs Napoli Prediction
Bottom line here is that there are too many factors for me to ignore to get me to lay the goal line on AC Milan. Napoli have the better defense and have clearly dominated the series history, while AC Milan have been overperforming offensively and are due for some regression in scoring goals. In backing Napoli here, the beauty is they don’t need to win. We can cash a ticket on a win or a draw (although of course a draw would only be a half-win on our wager) and I’ll gladly grab the bait and take Napoli +0.25, currently listed at -110.
As always, enjoy the weekend soccer slate and good luck with your wagers!
Borrman is #1 in Serie A this season at WagerTalk, hitting 67% (24-12) for +46.30% bankroll gain!
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— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) December 14, 2021
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