AC Milan vs Roma Prediction and Odds | Serie A Jan 8
AC Milan vs Roma Betting Preview
Things are tight at the top of the Serie A table entering Match Day 17 with just six points separating second place from sixth place. WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman breaks down the matchup between two of those top-six teams, AC Milan vs Roma, which takes place on Sunday afternoon.
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AC Milan vs Roma Betting Odds
| Sunday, January 8 | Italian Serie A Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Roma: | +330 |
| AC Milan: | -120 |
| Draw: | +245 |
| Total: | 2.25 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 2:45pm ET / 11:45am PT |
AC Milan vs Roma Betting Analysis
Both teams come into this match earning wins in their first game back from the World Cup break. Milan earned a 2-1 away win at Salernitana which probably should have been more comfortable if not for the superb goalkeeping by Ochoa. Milan generated 3.80 xG and 3.10 xGoT but only managed to score those two goals.
Napoli lost at Inter earlier this week, so AC Milan was able to narrow the gap at the top of the Serie A table to five points.
Roma scored via penalty kick in the sixth minute vs Bologna and the game finished with that 1-0 scoreline. Roma clamped down defensively and only allowed Bologna a total of 0.75 xG.
Strong in Defense
Defense has been Roma’s pedigree this season as they lead all of Serie A with a very low 0.67 xGA average thru 16 matches and have conceded more than one goal just one time, which happened to be a 4-0 loss to Udinese.
Roma has traveled to Inter and Juventus and allowed one goal in each game with an average of just 0.70 xGA, so they’ve shown that they are capable of taking their strong defense on the road against top compeition.
Facing other quality at home, they allowed exactly one goal to each of Napoli, Lazio and Atalanta as well, with four of those five games finishing under 2.5 goals. The lone exception was a 2-1 win over Inter.
In all five of those matches, Roma hasn’t allowed more than 1.0 xGA, proving they can play strong defense against the top of the table teams. Digging a little deeper, they have allowed more than 1.0 xGA in just three of 16 matches this season.
Milan has been good defensively as well but average a slightly higher 0.99 xGA on the season and have allowed two goals on four different occasions, while keeping just four clean sheets. The alarming trend at home that goes against my suggestion is that they have conceded in six of eight matches with all six of those finishing over the total.
AC Milan vs Roma Prediction
Each of the last four meetings between these teams has also finished over this total, but I believe we see that trend bucked in a very important match for both sides. This game has 1-1 written all over it and that is priced as the lowest correct score at +600. I’m going to ride with the defensive stats of both teams in a match each side might be a little extra cautious.
Take the under 2.5 goals, which is widely available between -125 and -130 at most sports books. For more free soccer picks, check out WagerTalk’s free picks page.
Stoppage Time | European Soccer Preview Jan 7-8
The race for the La Liga crown should be a great one as Barcelona and Real Madrid enter Match Day 16 tied atop the table. Join Carmine, Nick, Kevin and Bryan for Stoppage Time as we preview this weekend’s European soccer action from a variety of betting angles. We cover this Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid showdown at the 24:00 timestamp.
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First time at WagerTalk? Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code NEWS1 when checking out! Click here to select your picks and then apply the best bargain of 2023 with coupon code NEWS1.
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About The Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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