Bayern vs Dortmund Expert Prediction and Picks | German Bundesliga Betting April 1

Bayern vs Dortmund Betting Preview

Sportsmemo soccer handicapper Nick Borrman gives his prediction and picks for this Bayern vs Dortmund German Bundesliga match before start time at 12:30pm ET Saturday, coming from Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany. Bayern and Dortmund occupy the top two spots in the German Bundesliga standings heading in.

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Bayern vs Dortmund Betting Odds

Saturday, April 1	German Bundesliga Betting Notes
Dortmund:	+465
Bayern:	-205
Draw:	+415
Total:	3.5 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings)
Game Time:	12:30pm ET / 9:30am PT

Bayern vs Dortmund Betting Analysis

The one thing that we have all come to expect out of Der Klassiker is a goal fest. Each of the last seven meetings between these sides has finished with at least four goals scored including a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture back in October.

Going back even further, 15 of the last 18 meetings have finished Over this total. Quite remarkable with a total set at 3.5. I’m honestly surprised this hasn’t moved to 4.0 or at least 3.75 as the standard for this rivalry.

Bayern in Familiar Territory

I can’t remember the last time Bayern was not atop the table at this point of the season with only nine matches remaining, but here we are as Dortmund lead by one point.

Both teams have slightly pulled away from the pack as Union Berlin is four points back of Bayern for third place.

At this point, it’s pretty evident that the Bundesliga will be won by one of these two sides and this game is going to be a big factor in how the title race plays out.

Low Scoring Match on Horizon?

With that in mind, I’m a little hesitant to jump on the Over. With so much on the line, we often see big teams in big matches play to much lower scoring games than the surface level suggests.

We see it all the time in the Champions League and both teams were involved in those type of matches as Bayern beat PSG twice, 1-0 and 2-0, while Dortmund beat Chelsea 1-0 in leg 1 before losing 0-2 in leg 2.

Then again, the Bundesliga tends to play out a little differently as Dortmund followed up their Champions League exit with a 2-2 draw at lowly Schalke followed by a 6-1 thumping over Koln while Bayern allowed three goals to Augsburg in a thrilling 5-3 win. 

By the numbers, the offense is there:

Bundesliga per 90 minutes
Bayern 2.45 xG (2.91 home) | 19.0 shots | 8.0 on target (All rank 1st)
Dortmund 1.91 xG | 15.1 shots | 6.2 on target (Rank 3rd in xG and 2nd in shot volume).  Dortmund’s xG does drop to 1.68 on the road, but their xGA increases to 1.51 from 1.30

Bayern vs Dortmund Expert Prediction

OK, so I’ve talked myself out of taking the Over and to now back on it in a matter of a minute. It’s Der Klassiker, I mean that’s all you have to say.

Prediction: Over 3.5 Goals Scored -120

Soccer Betting Tips

New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic soccer betting tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.

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About The Author

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago.

Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe.

Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League.

Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America.

Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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