Benfica vs Ajax Champions League Odds and Prediction Feb 23
Benfica vs Ajax Betting Preview
The Dutch darlings are back for another chance to play spoiler in the Champions League. After dominating their domestic league, can Ajax make another deep run through European competition? WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his Benfica vs Ajax betting preview.
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| Wednesday, February 23 | UEFA Champions League Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Benfica: | +340 |
| Ajax: | -125 |
| Draw: | +290 |
| Total: | 2.75 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT |
Benfica vs Ajax Analysis
Benfica once again find themselves as the third-best team in Portugal, trailing both Porto and Sporting in the table by 12 and six points respectively. That’s important to understand as Ajax faced one of those teams in the group stage of this competition, absolutely obliterating Sporting by a 9-3 aggregate and a 5.20 – 1.87 xG (expected goals) tally over both legs.
Benfica did make it here by finishing second in the group behind Bayern Munich (who went a perfect 6-0), but ahead of Barcelona and Dynamo Kyiv as they both won and drew a leg against each team.
Historically, that would have been a much more impressive result, but we all know this is not the same Barcelona of years past. Against Bayern though, Benfica were beaten by a 2-9 aggregate score, and generated just 1.69 xG while allowing a whopping 8.08 xGA.
Last season Benfica played in the Europa League group stage and qualified for the knockout rounds, facing Arsenal in the first round. The Gunners were able to take care of business and bounced Benfica out of the competition and all signs point to a similar result here.
Ajax Continues to Impress
While many people are quick to point out that although Ajax are having an incredible year, they play in a weak Eredivisie, and thus, don’t give them the respect they deserve. However, oddsmakers have instilled them as the sixth-favorite to lift the title while I have them a little higher at the third most likely team to win the Champions League.
I do agree that Ajax does play in a weak league, but the Portugese league isn’t much better, and the sheer dominance of Ajax proves why they are the better side. Ajax lead the Eredivisie by five points with an 18-3-2 record, but what paints a better picture is their goal differential of 70:5! Yes, that’s right, they have conceded just FIVE goals in 23 league games this season while scoring an insane 70.
Ajax proved they belong with the elite in this competition by sweeping their group, going a perfect 6-0 along with Bayern Munich and Liverpool. They beat up on a very good Dortmund team by an aggregate 7-1 score over the two legs and I already mentioned their dominance over another Portugese team in Sporting. In those six games, they averaged 2.57 xG on a whopping 17.2 shots with 7.0 on goal while allowing 1.29 xGA on just 9.8 shots and 2.8 on goal.
Benfica vs Ajax Prediction
The group stage ranked Ajax as the third-best team in this competition when simply looking at xG. They have the third best xG differential at +1.28 per game while Benfica are the lowest ranked team still left in this competition, ranking 27th out of 32 teams with a -0.90 xG differential.
It’s very difficult to expect any other result here than an Ajax win. I will say the Benfica have more experience in European competitions that does Sporting (Ajax’s group stage opponent) or even Ajax for that matter, but this Ajax team has proven that they belong among Europe’s elite.
Further, by the numbers at least, this year’s version of Ajax is even better than the Ajax side that were sheer minutes from the Champions League Final just three seasons ago. Take Ajax on the moneyline (-125) in Wednesday’s meeting with Benfica.
Interested in placing a bet on Wednesday’s Benfica vs Ajax clash in the Champions League? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 match bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.
Soccer Betting 101
New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic tips and strategies? Kelly Stewart, Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman share some of their favorite soccer betting tips.
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features odds from a variety of domestic and offshore sports books. Track the moneylines and totals for all of this week’s Champions League matches, including this Benfica vs Ajax showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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