Best Bets Spain vs France, Netherlands vs England

Euro 2024 Picks and Predictions! France and Netherlands & more

WagerTalk soccer handicapper Kevin Dolan presents his Euro 2024 picks and predictions for the Semifinal matchups of Spain vs France and Netherlands vs England? Read Kevin’s Euro 2024 Semifinals predictions and picks below!

Spain vs France Picks | Friday, July 9 | 3:00PM ET

Spain +170 | France +205 | Draw +185

France takes on Spain on Tuesday in the first of the Euro 2024 semi-finals and it’s been a tale of two vastly different tournaments for both of these teams so far.

Spain has looked like the best team throughout at this tournament, being currently installed as the outright betting favorites as a result, recording blowout victories against both Croatia and Georgia before putting hosts Germany to the sword in the last round also.

Compare that against a France team that has looked largely labored throughout in this competition, notching three regulation time draws across their five games so far, and failing to score a single goal from open play also, and it’s clear to see why Spain head into this game as marginal favorites on Tuesday.

However, the underlying numbers for Spain paint a different picture, with their route through to this semi-final being somewhat fortunate as they’ve been out-gunned in both of their biggest tests to date.

Croatia in their opening game, owned a clear 2.67 to 2.00 xG advantage against them, with the Croatians amassing five more shots on goal than the Spanish as well. Fast forward to Spain’s quarter-final matchup against Germany on Friday and they were largely second-best throughout once again, with the Germans having 23 shots on goal, and restricting the Spanish to just one total corner in that match.

In fact, by the end of extra-time in that game against Germany, the Germans owned a comprehensive 2.14 to 1.11 xG advantage over Spain, and the hosts will no doubt be rueing Mikel Merino’s late goal for the Spanish as the Germans will feel it should be them and not Spain facing France in Tuesday’s semi-final instead.

France meanwhile, has been quite the opposite, looking largely uninspired throughout this competition so far, but metrically continuing to look strong as they punch their ticket into yet another semi-final of a major international tournament.

France has scored exactly 0 goals from 8.18 non-penalty expected goals at this tournament, which is a pretty staggering stat considering the level of attacking talent that they have in their roster. Nevertheless, that stat does highlight that France are continuing to create chances in games, and surely with the quality of players at their disposal, you’d imagine it’s only a matter of time until that wheel starts to turn and those half chances start to go in.

In terms of offense, France has averaged 17.4 shots per game across this tournament so far, and this has largely increased across their last two games as well, with the French putting up 20 shots against Belgium back in the Round of 16, and 11 shots alone in the second half of their game against Portugal on Friday.

Spain allowed 16 shots in regulation against Germany in the last round, and 16 against Croatia in their opening game as well, so this is a very doable shot total for France on Tuesday, especially at the current plus-money price.

Euro 2024 Prediction: France +0 (-145)

England vs Switzerland Best Bets | Tuesday, July 9 | 3:00PM ET

England +125 | Switzerland +285 | Draw +195

Another abject display from England against Slovakia in the last round has led many fans to become extremely despondent about their team’s chances of winning this competition, even as current favorites and on the easier side of the draw, as England narrowly avoided an early exit on Sunday, pulling the proverbial rabbit out of the hat with a late 95th-minute equalizer, before then going on to knock out Slovakia in extra time.

They’ll face a much stiffer test this weekend however as they take on a Switzerland team that has grown in confidence across this tournament, beating Hungary, then almost beating Germany, before dispatching current champions Italy 2-0 in the last round as well.

That said, that was still a remarkably poor Italian side and Germany had already qualified for the next round at the time of the game, so Switzerland’s performances probably rate somewhere between those two highlights and their less-than-impressive display against Scotland back in the group stage.

Whatever the truth about Switzerland though, to get England at this current plus-money line pre-tournament would be pretty unthinkable, so perhaps we do need to take the recency goggles off for this one and just look at how much the market has moved from their previous encounters.

England go into this game as +122 favorites right now, but were -154 in their last head-to-head meeting two years ago which England won 2-1.

In their previous meeting in the Euros back in 2015, which England also won thanks to a Harry Kane goal, the English went off as -133 favorites in that game, so according to current lines, we’re getting some massive value on England ahead of this quarter-final, even as abject as they’ve been so far.

History is certainly on England’s side as well ahead of this one, owning an impressive W18, D5, L1 record across their last 24 meetings, with that sole loss against Switzerland coming all the way back in the 1981 World Cup qualifiers.

On top of that, no European team has a worse record in quarter-finals than Switzerland do, being at the quarter-final stage of a major tournament on five previous occasions, and being sent home all five times.

England has looked incredibly poor across this tournament so far no question, but the market has over-adjusted in our eyes, and their experience and big game players should get them over the line here against a Switzerland team that has never breached this hurdle in their history.

Euro 2024 Prediction: France Total Shots – Over 11.5 (+110)

Netherlands vs England Picks | Wednesday, July 10 | 3:00PM ET

Netherlands +215 | England +160 | Draw +185

Perhaps no team has highlighted just how largely weak this Euros has been than England’s appearance (and France’s to a degree) at the semi-final stage of this competition despite how severely uninspired they’ve looked across the tournament as a whole.

England’s 3.2 shots on target per game is a full 4 shots on target lower than what Spain has managed across this tournament to date, and it adequately reflects just how offensively challenged England has been at this year’s Euros.

That was put on display once again in Saturday’s quarter-final clash against Switzerland, with the Swiss owning a fairly sizeable 1.51 to 0.68 xG advantage over England by the end of extra-time, yet it mattered little as the English once again snuck through after regulation for a second straight time after their extra-time heroics against Slovakia in the previous round also.

The good news for England however is that their defense continues to be elite, not only allowing zero goals from set-pieces, penalties, or counter-attacks across this tournament so far, but also owning the best defensive xGA numbers out of any team still remaining in this competition as well.

In fact, England’s 0.09 xG opponent per shot tally is far superior to both France’s and Spain’s numbers, and manager Gareth Southgate will no doubt hope his defense can get them through to a second consecutive European Championship final based on those strong defensive numbers.

Facing them in this one is a Dutch side that has failed to impress themselves across this tournament, now giving up the opening goal in three of their five matches to date in this competition, something they can ill afford to do against a defense as tight as England’s on Wednesday.

The Netherlands have looked defensively vulnerable across this tournament as well, coming up second-best in their xG battles against both Turkey and France, and giving up three goals against Austria back in the group stage also to finish in third, so England’s front six definitely has the ability to cause them problems in this one.

That said, Gareth Southgate is one of the most overly-cautious managers in international football, so if England do get an early goal in this one, it will likely be all hands on defense as they look to protect their lead for the remainder of the game.

Because of that, we like the England Exact Team Total here, England to score exactly one goal at +156, something England has done in four of their five previous matches at this tournament, and in all of their three previous head-to-heads against the Netherlands as well.

Euro 2024 Prediction: England Total Goals – 1 Goal (+155)

Euro 2024 Group Previews:

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