Bologna vs AC Milan Prediction and Picks | Serie A Betting April 15
Bologna vs AC Milan Betting Preview
Sportsmemo soccer handicapper Nick Borrman gives his prediction and picks for this Bologna vs AC Milan Serie A match before start time at 9:00am ET Saturday, coming from Renato Dall’Ara Stadium in Bologna, Italy. AC Milan sits nine points up on Bologna in the Serie A standings heading in.
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Bologna vs AC Milan Betting Odds
| Saturday, April 15 | Serie A Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| AC Milan: | +125 |
| Bologna: | +240 |
| Draw: | +220 |
| Total: | 2 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 9:00am ET / 6:00am PT |
Bologna vs AC Milan Betting Analysis
I’ll get into some data to back up my selection, but this is all about the scheduling spot here for AC Milan and any Champions League team this weekend.
AC Milan faced Napoli in Leg 1 this past week and meet again only three days after this match. While AC Milan needs points in Serie A, this is a tough spot for Pioli to decide how to lineup for this match.
Besides the schedule working completely against Milan, Bologna is in good form and would be tough for AC Milan to grab all three points without the Champions League distraction.
Bologna have just two losses in their last 12 league matches with some quality results along the way. The of course are coming off a 2-0 win over Atalanta last weekend, but they also have a win against Inter Milan and draw vs Lazio in just their last six matches.
Their defense has improved immensely during this run as they are allowing just 1.25 xGA after allowing 1.63 in their first 17 matches.
Home Sweet Home For Bologna
At home, Bologna have been solid all year with just three losses in 15 matches while only conceding ten goals. If you add in their offense that has scored just 20 goals, they have been an Under team at home as ten of their 15 have finished Under 2.5 goals.
Of course, we talked about Milan’s big 4-0 win over Napoli two weekends ago, but then they failed to beat Empoli this past weekend settling for a 0-0 draw.
That now makes it just four wins from their last 13 league matches and only two of their last seven on the road.
Their xG numbers have dropped from 2.06 in their first 16 matches to now 1.63 in their last 13 while their xGA average has risen from 0.99 to 1.23.
AC Milan Beats on Bottom Feeders in Serie A
AC Milan haven’t gotten great results on the road all year with just six wins from 15 matches and their win vs Napoli was their only quality road win.
Their other five came against Monza, Salernitana, Verona, Empoli and Sampdoria who all reside in the bottom half of the table and all have negative goal differentials.
They have also struggled against the spread as they covered just three times in 15 away matches and just twice 11 matches as road favorites.
Bologna vs AC Milan Expert Prediction
Even with so much working in our favor, this isn’t an easy play to make as Bologna haven’t beaten Milan since 2016, a run of 14 straight matches, so history is not on our side here. But Bologna also had terrible history against Atalanta and they just won 2-0 so perhaps they can do it against vs Milan.
Prediction: Bologna +0.25 -110
Soccer Betting Tips
New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic soccer betting tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.
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About The Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago.
Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe.
Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League.
Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America.
Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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