Brighton vs Liverpool Prediction and Picks | Premier League Jan 14

Brighton vs Liverpool Betting Preview

Brighton and Liverpool sit neck-and-neck in the Premier League standings with both fighting to qualify for the UEFA Champions League. WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman breaks down this Brighton vs Liverpool taking place at American Express Community Stadium in Brighton, England starting at 10:00am ET Saturday.

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Brighton vs Liverpool Betting Odds

Saturday, January 14	Premier League Betting Notes
Brighton:	+225
Liverpool:	+115
Draw:	+270
Total:	3 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings)
Game Time:	10:00am ET / 4:30am PT

Brighton vs Liverpool Betting Analysis

I suggested a buy low opportunity on Chelsea on Thursday in their match vs Fulham and I see this as a very similar spot to get your money on Liverpool.

The Reds clearly have had a disappointing EPL campaign thus far down 17 points of Arsenal at the top of the table as they own an 8-4-5 record and sit just one point above this Brighton side who have had, by their own standards, a very good year, even after the managerial change with Graham Potter leaving for Chelsea.

Brighton Can’t Stay Consistent

I just don’t see Brighton getting a result here. In their last five home games, the Seagulls have only one win, which did come against their former manager winning 4-1 over Chelsea, but they lost to Tottenham, Aston Villa and Arsenal while drawing with lowly Nottingham.

If we look back at the first meeting between these teams at Anfield, Brighton played a great match to earn a 3-3 draw. But looking at the odds for that match, Liverpool was priced at -225 and now we can get them at plus money? Just seems like way too much of an overcorrection.

Liverpool Has Edge In Advanced Metrics

If we just compare metrics between these sides, Liverpool ranks ahead of Brighton in everything except xGA and Shots on Target allowed.

All offensive numbers rank either #1 or #2 they just have struggled at the back which I keep saying they will eventually start to fix, but it hasn’t happened yet. I still do believe it’s coming though.

Brighton vs Liverpool Prediction

One last thing I’ll mention is that both teams excel at generating corners. Brighton average 7.9 Corners at home this season which ranks #4 while Liverpool generate 7.3 Corners overall and 6.6 on the road which both rank #1 in the league.

If you don’t think Liverpool can win this comfortably, take a look at the Corners market when it becomes available as that will mean the Reds will have to push late for a win which means some extra Corners.
Otherwise, don’t overthink it and grab the plus money buy low spot on Liverpool.

Prediction: Liverpool Moneyline +115 / Over Corner Kicks

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Soccer Betting Tips

New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic soccer betting tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.

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First time at WagerTalk? Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code NEWS1 when checking out! Click here to select your picks and then apply the best bargain of 2023 with coupon code NEWS1. 

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About The Author

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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