Bundesliga Predictions, Picks and Best Bets for August 26

German Bundesliga Match Betting Preview for August 26

WagerTalk German Bundesliga handicapper Nick Borrman presents his August 26 Bundesliga match predictions including Freiburg vs Werder Bremen and Heidenheim vs Hoffenheim. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his German Bundesliga betting preview now!

Freiburg vs Werder Bremen | August 26 | 9:30am ET

Freiburg -150 | Draw +295 | Werder Bremen +350
Asian Handicap: Freiburg -0.75 | Total: 2.75

Freiburg looked dangerous in their opener beating Hoffenheim 2-1 though they generated 3.25 xG. Considering one of their goals was an own goal from Hoffenheim, they could have scored 3-4 very easily.

Freiburg’s biggest worry coming into this season from a player perspective was the loss of their keeper Mark Flekken who transferred to the EPL to play for Brentford.

They replaced him with Florian Muller from Stuttgart, but didn’t start him as Noah Atubolu was between the pipes and played great, allowing just one goal while keeping four saves.

He should have some confidence heading to face Werder Bremen who managed just one single shot on goal in their opening loss to Bayern Munich.

I previewed Freiburg’s matchup last week and made the point that Freiburg need to win and get their points now as they are playing in the Europa League this season and could very well struggle when trying to play in both competitions as they lack the depth needed to be successful in both.

They did their job by winning at Hoffenheim last week and I like them even more this week at home where that had a +0.41 xG differential averaging 1.75 xG while allowing only 1.34.

Compare that to Werder Bremen who generated only 1.14 xG away last season while allowing nearly 2.0 per match at 1.97.

While facing Bayern in your opening match is a tough ask, they were beaten soundly and managed to create only six shots in the match for a total of 0.64 xG and no corners.

Freiburg won both meetings last season and I like them to be able to do so again. Grab this early as I fully believe this price pushes upward of -190 with a goal line of -1.0 by kickoff.

Prediction: Freiburg Moneyline -150

Heidenheim vs Hoffenheim | August 26 | 9:30am ET

Heidenheim +180 | Draw +260 | Hoffenheim +120
Asian Handicap: Hoffenheim -0.25 | Total: 2.75

The battle of the ‘heims’ should be anything be a defensive match as both teams struggle on that side of the ball.

Last weekend, Hoffenheim lost 1-2 at home to Freiburg but allowed 3.25 xG to the visitors, so it easily could have been more than just two goals. Meanwhile, they were able to create 1.67 xG themselves while taking 24 shots, so I am more than confident they will get plenty of looks in this match.

Heidenheim allowed nearly identical quality chances to Wolfsburg losing 0-2 away while allowing Wolfsburg 3.21 xG on 18 shots with eight on goal.

Even though they didn’t score, they did create 1.18 xG themselves on 13 shots in the match and should be able to at least match that against Hoffenheim.

The newly promoted side won Bundesliga II last season scoring 67 goals in 34 matches and I think their offense has a chance to carry over into the top league. But I don’t trust their defense to be able to contain most of these bigger teams after watching the first match vs Wolfsburg.

Both teams will approach this match as very winnable and a good chance to grab three points which should push both to go for the win and take chances, aka risk, when the opportunity is there.

Prediction: Over 2.75 Goals -125

Monchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen | August 26 | 12:30pm ET

Monchengladbach +230 | Draw +280 | Leverkusen -110
Asian Handicap: Leverkusen -0.5 | Total: 3.25

Big win from Leverkusen last weekend beating RB Leipzig 3-2, but I think it’s going to be hard to follow that up on the road here as they travel to face Monchengladbach.

After losing Moussa Diaby for $55M to Aston Villa over the summer, there were plenty of questions surrounding Leverkusen’s ability to replace his contributions over the last few seasons as he produced a combined 17 G+A last season and 25 the year prior.

They brought in Victor Boniface from Union SG in Belgium and Jonas Hofmann from this very Monchengladbach team. Both contributed an assist vs Leipzig.

However, I don’t like their chances of repeating this weekend as Leverkusen were a completely different team away last year.

Leverkusen averaged 1.91 xG at home last season but that dropped significantly to 1.25 on the road. Their defense was much worse as well rising from 1.18 xGA to 1.58 away. They managed just six wins in 17 matches with a -4 goal differential.

Gladbach played out a thrilling 4-4 draw at Augsburg in their opener. They jumped out to an early 2-0 lead but eventually gave it away before halftime with a wild score of 3-3 at the break.

They then fell behind in the second half but showed some grit in hanging around until stoppage time where they were able to equalize and walk away with a point.

It was good to see the offense from Gladbach after losing Thuram, Stindl and I already mentioned Hofmann. It was their biggest addition, Cvancara from Sparta Prague, who scored a brace including the game tying penalty to give them some confidence coming into this big match.

While Gladbach had a down year last season, they were excellent at home generating 1.97 xG per match, the 4th highest total while allowing just 1.19 xGA. Compare that to their road numbers of 1.13 and 2.28, respectively and you can see why most of their success came at Borussia Park.

Getting the Double Chance at home at such a nice price is too good of value to pass up.

Prediction: Monchengladbach +0.5 (Double Chance) -110