Bundesliga Predictions, Picks and Best Bets for September 15-16

German Bundesliga Match Betting Preview for September 15-16

WagerTalk German Bundesliga handicapper Nick Borrman presents his September 15-16 Bundesliga match predictions including Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen and Mainz vs Stuttgart. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his German Bundesliga betting preview now!

Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen | Friday September 15 | 2:30pm ET

Bayern -185 | Draw +360 | Leverkusen +350
Asian Handicap: Bayern -1.0 | Total: 3.75

The international break is over and both teams return to action ahead of European matches next week. Bayern plays Manchester United in the Champions League while Leverkusen host Swedish side Hacken in the Europa League.

Generally, weekend matches before European competitions are a good spot to fade, especially in the Champions League with matches earlier in the week and the competition tougher.

Depending on their opponent, teams will often rotate their lineup or just get caught in a look-ahead spot. While I don’t think either will be the case here this early in the season, coming off an international break, and with a strong opponent, I still feel like this is a good spot to fade Bayern.

Fading Bayern in Munich is often a scary proposition, but this Leverkusen team has looked fantastic to start the season scoring a ridiculous 11 goals through three games which is even more than the hosts. They also beat a strong Leipzig team in their opener, a team that Bayern lost to 0-3 in the Super Cup a week before the season began.

Bayern though, aside from that Super Cup loss, have started off the Bundesliga with the same 3-0 record, though it’s been a very easy schedule facing Werder Bremen, Augsburg and Monchengladbach.

Still, it was exactly what they needed as the Harry Kane era gets underway, who has scored three goals already for the Bavarian giants.

I fear though, that this number is too large. I’m fine with Bayern being favorites, but I have this lined closer to the -0.5 range with a ML price of maybe as high as -140.

Getting a full goal just seems like too much to give Leverkusen who are playing with a ton of confidence and have had recent success in Munich with a win and a draw here in the last four seasons.

Ultimately if Bayern do find the win, I find it hard to believe it will come in blowout fashion and will grab the +1.0 handicap head start.

Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen +1.0 -110 DraftKings

Freiburg vs Dortmund | Saturday September 16 | 9:30am ET

Freiburg +200 | Draw +280 | Dortmund +105
Asian Handicap: Dortmund -0.25 | Total: 3.25

Another match with both teams looking ahead to European matches this upcoming week and once again I see this as a spot to fade the Champions League side.

Dortmund travel to Paris to play PSG just three days after this match which is a very quick turnaround and I have to suspect Edin Terzic will have that on his mind as he manages this match and his lineup for the 90 minutes.

On top of the bad spot here for Dortmund, they have been far from impressive to start the season with one win and two draws, losing all three matches against the spread.

After grabbing a 2-0 halftime lead over newly promoted Heidenheim, in what should have then been a straightforward win, they conceded two goals in the second half and had to settle for a draw at home despite being -2.0 goal favorites.

In three matches, they have allowed an average of 1.54 xGA which is not Champions League caliber, especially when you consider their opponents of Heidenheim, Bochum and Koln.

I’m also a fan of backing Freiburg here at home coming off an ugly 0-5 loss to Stuttgart just before the international break. Nobody wants to get behind a team after an ugly loss like that, and bookmakers know that, so I believe we have some value in their number. They won each of their first two matches prior to that with xG showing a 4.97 – 2.37 advantage.

Freiburg were excellent at home last season with a 10-4-3 record and +15 goal differential and although Dortmund was one of their losses, Freiburg had won two and drawn once in the three previous seasons at home vs Dortmund. I think they can continue their success against the Borussia side this weekend.

Prediction: Freiburg +0.5 or Double Chance -130 DraftKings

Shop both the +0.5 handicap and Double Chance as both are the same bet.

Mainz vs Stuttgart | Saturday September 16 | 9:30am ET

Mainz +140 | Draw +250 | Stuttgart +160
Asian Handicap: Pick’em | Total: 2.75

Mainz is off to an ugly 0-1-2 start having conceded four goals twice already to Union Berlin and Werder Bremen while allowing an average of 2.09 xGA per match. That could play right into Stuttgart’s hands who have seen at least one team score five goals in all three matches this season.

Twice, Stuttgart was the scorer of five goals beating both Bochum and Freiburg 5-0, however both of those matches came at home. In their only road game this year, they lost 1-5 at RB Leipzig, granted Leipzig is a much tougher opponent than Mainz.

However, despite all the craziness in the scorelines between these teams, there has been one constant. Corners have been hard to come by. All three of Mainz’s matches have finished with nine total corners or fewer while all three of Stuttgart’s have finished with eight or less.

This is nothing new for these teams either. Looking back at last year’s results, both teams followed similar trends.

At home, only four of Mainz’s matches finished with more than nine corners while 13 finished with nine corners or fewer.

For Stuttgart, they had a 6-11 Over-Under Corner record vs a total of 9.5 while on the road. Additionally, both matches between these teams finished Under the Corner total last season.

This is likely to be a very evenly played match and unless there are double corner situations in this match (where one corner immediately leads to a second corner), I can’t see either team dominating possession and pushing into the other team’s final third enough to get to at least ten total corners.

Prediction: Under 9.5 Corners -135 Bet365