Bundesliga Predictions, Picks and Best Bets for September 22-24

German Bundesliga Match Betting Preview for September 22-24

WagerTalk German Bundesliga handicapper Nick Borrman presents his September 22-24 Bundesliga match predictions including Stuttgart vs Darmstadt and Monchengladbach vs RB Leipzig. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his German Bundesliga betting preview now!

Stuttgart vs Darmstadt | Friday September 22 | 2:30pm ET

Stuttgart -260 | Draw +370 | Darmstadt +550
Asian Handicap: Stuttgart -1.25 | Total: 3.0

Stuttgart has played two home matches this season and scored five goals in each of them.

They then added another three goals this past weekend at Mainz leaving the only match in which they failed to score at least three goals being their 1-5 loss at RB Leipzig, but considering Leipzig is a Champions League caliber side, I don’t see little Darmstadt giving them nearly as many problems.

In those three wins, Stuttgart has averaged 2.72 xG on seven shots on target per match which are both strong numbers and would rank them 2nd in the league in xG and T-3rd in the league in shots on target.

Meanwhile, I played the Over last weekend in the Darmstadt-Gladbach matchup which easily soared over the total finishing in a 3-3 draw.

While the 2nd half comeback from Gladbach was certainly aided by a red card for Dartmstadt, here are the xGA numbers thus far for the visitors: 3.49, 3.43, 1.64, 1.24.

Only in their first match which ended as a 0-1 loss to Frankfurt, did they both fail to score and keep their opponent from scoring at least three goals, as their last three matches have averaged 5.3 total goals per match.

Against Leverkusen they allowed 13 shots on target and against Gladbach they allowed 10! Those are alarming numbers and with how well Stuttgart has been playing and they confidence they have scoring right now, I would not be surprised to see them pushing double digits as well.

Bottom line, I see Stuttgart scoring at least the three goals needed to push on this total themselves, while Darmstadt will not be able to rely on their defense, so I expect them to push for goals as well, leaving this game wide open.

Prediction: Over 3.0 Goals -115 DraftKings

Monchengladbach vs RB Leipzig | Saturday 9/23 | 9:30am ET

Gladbach +380 | Draw +340 | RB Leipzig -185
Asian Handicap: RB Leipzig -1.0 | Total: 3.5

Now is a good time to catch Leipzig who are coming off their Champions League match at Young Boys (Switzerland) midweek and will stay on the road for this match as they travel to Monchengladbach.

Gladbach remain winless in the season, but we backed them just before the international break as they hosted Bayern Munich as +1.75 home underdogs which they covered in a 1-2 loss. Just because they aren’t winning doesn’t mean we can’t make money on them.

In fact, I like to jump on teams that most people would want nothing to do with. Generally, that just means the lines get inflated to the opposite site as they setup as a popular fade.

The defense though is extremely worrisome having conceded 12 goals already in four matches, but their best defensive performance did come against Bayern, so I’m hoping this is another match they can get up for.

On the flip side, who wouldn’t want to bet on Leipzig right now? After their 2-3 loss at Leverkusen, which was not a bad result, they have since rallied off three straight wins by a combined 11-1 goal differential though they combined xG tally was nowhere near that coming in at 4.76 to 2.70, so perhaps some regression is due.

Finally, despite how much better Leipzig has been over the last several years, Gladbach have won three straight at home 3-0, 3-1, and 1-0.

Gladbach have all week to prepare for this match while the quick turnaround for Leipzig may be just the distraction Gladbach need to grab a result here.

Prediction: Monchengladbach +1.0 -115 DraftKings

Bayer Leverkusen vs Heidenheim | Sunday 9/24 | 9:30am ET

Leverkusen -450 | Draw +550 | Heidenheim +800
Asian Handicap: Leverkusen -1.75 | Total: 3.5

Kudos to Heidenheim for winning their first match of the season last weekend beating Werder Bremen 4-2 at home which followed up a 2-2 draw at Dortmund, which was even more impressive considering they trailed 0-2 at the half.

Still, I’m very concerned about what we have seen from this team. Here are some important numbers from Heidenheim thus far: 2.56, 2.75, 2.76, and 3.21. Those are the xGA tallies they have allowed in each of their first four games this season and seeing as the competition has included Werder Bremen, Hoffenheim and Wolfsburg, it makes it all that much worse.

Now, as they face one of the best offensive teams in the league, what do you think will happen?
2.46, 3.43, 3.65, and 1.73.

These are the offensive xG numbers for Leverkusen this season with matches including facing Leipzig and Bayern already, yet they still are averaging an impressive amount of shots (18.0) and shots on target (8.8), ranking second and first, respectively. Their 2.82 xG average ranks as the most in the league and the 2nd most in the Big 5 European leagues.

While having midweek European fixtures can certainly be a distraction when it comes to weekend domestic games, Leverkusen face a weak Hacken side from Sweden so I would expect some squad rotation as they are likely to win that match even without their best XI on the field.

While this is a big number to lay, three to four goals from Leverkusen seems like a high probability.

Prediction: Leverkusen-1.75 -125 DraftKings