Bundesliga Predictions, Picks and Odds for Saturday May 27

German Bundesliga Match Betting Preview for May 27

WagerTalk German Bundesliga handicapper Nick Borrman presents his May 27 Bundesliga match predictions including Koln vs Bayern Munich and Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his German Bundesliga betting preview now!

Koln vs Bayern Munich | Saturday May 27 | 9:30am ET

Koln +650 | Draw +550 | Bayern Munich -380
Asian Handicap: Bayern Munich -1.75 | Total: 3.5

Yes, I get it. Bayern needs a win (and some help) while Koln has nothing to play for, but that just makes Koln a dangerous side.

There would be no better way to end the season than to grab a win against the mighty Bayern Munich in front of their fans and be that final piece of the puzzle that sees Bayern’s 10-year reign as Bundesliga champions come to an end.

Situation aside, Koln has been solid at home this season with a 6-5-5 record and +9 goal differential, allowing just 18 goals. Of those five losses, only two have come by more than one goal which came against Wolfsburg and Bochum of all teams.

Don’t forget, Koln beat Dortmund at home this season and played to a draw with Leipzig, so they are more than capable of grabbing a result vs Bayern.

In addition to their home form, Koln is in good form overall. Since the March international break, they have just one loss in eight matches which came by only one goal.

Bayern, after jumping out to a 1-0 halftime lead over Leipzig, allowed three goals to the visitors and now no longer control their own destiny in the Bundesliga title race. Not only do they need to win this match, but they also need Dortmund to draw or lose at home to Mainz which seems very unlikely.

I don’t feel like Tuchel is a good fit for this team. His defensive approach is not what got Bayern to the Bundesliga lead and to the quarterfinals of the Champions League without losing a match. Since he joined the team as manager, they have more draws + losses (six) than wins (five).

Finally, Bayern is not the same team on the road as they are at home. They haven’t covered this number in six straight road matches and have only won by more than one goal five times on the entire Bundesliga season.

Their road xG numbers are solid with a +0.90 differential per 90 minutes but compare that to Koln at +0.67 at home, and I just don’t see this price being justified.

Prediction: Koln +1.5 +105

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg | Saturday May 27 | 9:30am ET

Frankfurt +140 | Draw +275 | Freiburg +150
Asian Handicap: Pick’em | Total: 3.0

Freiburg has a huge opportunity here. If they can better the result of Union Berlin, they will earn Champions League football next season which would be a tremendous accomplishment for this team. The task will not come easy though as traveling to last year’s Europa League winners, Frankfurt is not an easy place to win.

Freiburg has a respectable 7-4-5 record away from home this year but with a -7 goal differential. They have beaten up on the teams in the bottom half of the table but have really struggled against quality opposition on the road with results including:

2-4 at Union Berlin
1-5 at Dortmund
0-6 at Wolfsburg
1-3 at Leipzig
0-5 at Bayern

Frankfurt ranks right up there with those teams at home owning an 8-5-3 record and +16 goal differential. According to xG, Frankfurt ranks as the 4th best home team with a +0.87 xG differential per 90 minutes, behind only the three qualified Champions League sides.

They lost at home to Napoli in the Champions League round of 16, but their last Bundesliga home loss came against Dortmund back in October, a run of nine straight without a loss. If you include all competitions including Champions League and the DFB Pokal (German Cup), Frankfurt has just two home losses in their last 17 matches. Notable wins on the season at home include:

2-1 vs Marseille (UCL)
5-1 vs Leverkusen
4-0 vs Leipzig

Frankfurt’s home numbers rank ahead of Freiburg’s away numbers in every major statistical category including xG, xGA, shots for and shots allowed, including both on target as well as corners.

While this game matters much more to Freiburg, Frankfurt still has an outside chance at qualifying for the Europa Conference League, but regardless, they will look to end the season on a positive note at home for their fans.

Prediction: Frankfurt +0 (DRAW NO BET) -120

Wolfsburg vs Hertha Berlin | Saturday May 27 | 9:30am ET

Wolfsburg -295 | Draw +425 | Hertha Berlin +600
Asian Handicap: Wolfsburg -1.5 | Total: 3.25

While I haven’t gone with the side that “needs to win” in my first two previews, this one makes all the sense in the world to go that direction. Hertha Berlin has already been relegated and are on the road here. They are ready for the summer break and have no reason to put in much of an effort in this match.

On the flip side, Wolfsburg can sneak into a Europa Conference League qualification if they can better the result of Leverkusen. Full disclosure though, this line is inflated for this reason, otherwise this would be -1.0 at most.

Hertha Berlin has obviously been terrible all season having already been relegated, but on the road, they have earned just five points this season with a 1-2-13 record and -25 goal differential.

Over their last nine away matches, they have one draw at Freiburg, but lost their other eight matches, all of them coming by at least two goals as their defense has allowed an average of 2.58 xGA per 90 minutes during that span.

Like Frankfurt, Wolfsburg has better home numbers in every major statistical category than Hertha Berlin’s away numbers including a +0.41 xG differential per match while Hertha Berlin averages -0.91 on the road.

Wolfsburg hasn’t had a dominating home record this year as they rank just 9th in total points with a 6-7-3 record and +10 goal differential. But with the situation and knowing they already beat Hertha Berlin 5-0 in the reverse fixture this season, their confidence should be high for this match.

Prediction: Wolfsburg -1.5 -110