Bundesliga Match Predictions, Picks and Odds for May 5-7

Betting Preview for Bundesliga Matches on Sunday

Bundesliga handicapper Nick Borrman presents his weekend match predictions and picks around key Bundesliga matches including Mainz vs Schalke and Dortmund vs Wolfsburg. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his betting preview now!

Mainz vs Schalke | Friday 5/5 | 2:30pm ET

Mainz -170 | Draw +285 | Schalke +400
Asian Handicap: Mainz -0.75 | Total: 2.75

Both teams with a lot to play for in this match. Schalke are still battling against relegation, currently in the bottom three, one point behind Bochum and Stuttgart, and have won two of their last three matches to make up some ground.

Still, when it comes to road form this season, they have been dreadful with just eight points on a 1-5-8 record and abysmal 7:23 goal differential.

Mainz meanwhile sit just three points back of Leverkusen for a Europa Conference League birth which would mean a ton to this team. They have been solid this season with a +6 goal differential and at home have suffered just three losses in 15 matches.

Most recently they are coming off a huge 3-1 home win over Bayern to extend their unbeaten run at Mewa Arena to six matches with four wins and two draws.

When it comes to xG, Schalke have the third worst differential in the league at -0.55 per 90 minutes, so they are certainly deserving of their position in the table. On the road that drops slightly to -0.73 as they are one of only three teams averaging less than 1.0 xG per match.

Mainz though sit 7th in xP (expected points) and have a slightly positive xG differential at +0.04 per match, but at home that improves to +0.56.

The price on Mainz is a little too high for my liking on its own, but pairing it with the alternate total of Under 3.5 gives us a nice plus money return.

Mainz have had just nine of 30 matches finish Over the total this season while Schalke have had ten. However, when these teams meet H2H, we have seen almost exclusively low-scoring matches as 13 of the last 14 have finished Under 3.5 goals.

Prediction: Mainz Moneyline + Under 3.5 Goals +135

Augsburg vs Union Berlin | Saturday 5/6 | 11:30am ET

Augsburg +220 | Draw +220 | Union Berlin +115
Asian Handicap: Union Berlin -0.25 | Total: 2.25

I keep telling myself it’s only a matter of time for Union Berlin to start falling down the table, but they continue to find ways to get results.

They sit 3rd in the table with 56 points but xP has them at 38.2. That +17.8 point overperformance is not only the biggest in the Bundesliga, but in all the Big 5 European League and is simply unsustainable, or at least I keep convincing myself that it is.

What Union Berlin has done well this season is play defense. They have allowed the 3rd fewest xGA at 36.4 behind only Bayern and RB Leipzig. However, offensively, no one has created fewer chances than their 30.7 xG which is just more than 1.0 per 90 minutes.

Augsburg suck and I’m not going to sit here and try to convince you otherwise. However, they have been able to earn points from four of their last six matches and I think they can do that again here.

They own a -0.46 xG differential at WWK Arena this season which is dead last in the league. However, it is slightly better than Union Berlin’s away numbers at -0.52 as they are creating just 0.89 xG per 90 minutes.

In 21 total away matches for Union Berlin, including the Europa League and DFB Pokal, they have scored multiple goals on just four occasions. Since the WC break, Augsburg have held their opponents to one goal or fewer in six of seven home matches and have scored in all of them.

So long as they can get on the board again here, I feel that will be enough to cash this ticket as I don’t see Union Berlin netting two.

Finally, Union Berlin face Freiburg in their next match who they are tied with on 56 points. That result will likely determine who earns a Champions League birth next season as RB Leipzig lurk just two points back. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Union Berlin look past Augsburg here.

Prediction: Augsburg +0.25 -120

Dortmund vs Wolfsburg | Sunday 5/7 | 11:30am ET

Dortmund -225 | Draw +380 | Wolfsburg +425
Asian Handicap: Dortmund -1.25 | Total: 3.25

Dortmund in front of the Yellow Wall have been a force all season with just one loss in 18 matches in all competitions. Since the WC break, they are a perfect 8-0 and have won by multiple goals in four of seven Bundesliga matches scoring at least four goals on five different occasions.

They dropped points on the road at Bochum to fall behind Bayern once again in the race for the Bundesliga title, but they probably deserved to win that match as xG showed a tally of 2.93 – 0.57 in Dortmund’s favor.

So even though they didn’t get the win, they created the chances and that is what you must do if you are going to win by multiple goals.

Wolfsburg coming in off back-to-back wins over Bochum and Mainz, but Dortmund will certainly be a step up in class.

Wolfsburg won the reverse fixture over Dortmund back in November which snapped a run of 14 straight matches without a win including 13 losses and just one draw. In Dortmund, Wolfsburg haven’t won a Bundesliga match since 2012.

Dortmund averages the 2nd most shots and shots on goal in the league at 15.0 and 6.1, respectively, and at home they generate 2.12 xG per 90 minutes. All signs point to another Dortmund home win, and I like the plus money return on them doing so by multiple goals.

Prediction: Dortmund -1.5 +115