German Bundesliga Predictions, Picks and Odds for May 13-14

German Bundesliga Match Betting Preview for May 13-14

WagerTalk German Bundesliga handicapper Nick Borrman presents his May 13-14 German Bundesliga match predictions including Bayern Munich vs Schalke and Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his German Bundesliga betting preview now!

Bayern Munich vs Schalke | Saturday 5/13 | 9:30am ET

Bayern -900 | Draw +850 | Schalke +1200
Asian Handicap: Bayern -2.75 | Total: 4.0

The biggest mistake Bayern has made this season was firing Julian Naglesmann and bringing on Thomas Tuchel over the March international break.

Bayern had slipped up a couple times prior to Naglesmann’s firing but they were still atop the Bundesliga and were a perfect 8-0 in the Champions League.

I’m not suggesting that Bayern would have beaten a red-hot Manchester City to advance to the UCL semifinals, but I believe they would have put up a hell of a lot better of a fight than they did.

With Tuchel at the helm, not only were the ousted in the Champions League, but they also saw their lead atop the Bundesliga disappear as Dortmund jumped ahead of Bayern at one point.

However, with back-to-back wins, Bayern is now back atop the table, though by just one point with three matches remaining.

Despite that, Bayern have just four wins in nine matches in all competitions including two draws and three losses.

Of their four wins, none of them have come by more than two goals which is a big reason why I think this number is just too high. Add in the extra 0.25 goals that we can grab +2.75 and it would take a four-goal Bayern win to fully lose this wager.

Of course, Bayern have the talent on the field to win this match 6-0, but they just don’t seem to be comfortable with Tuchel’s system as he is preaching for them to improve defensively.

With that in mind, I don’t necessarily think they will look to push the issue if they lead by two or three goals which could allow Schalke to cover, or backdoor a cover while Bayern make sure they simply protect their three points to stay atop the table.

We saw that exact scenario over the weekend at Werder Bremen and in a lot of ways, Schalke is the same team as Werder Bremen with almost identical xG and xGA numbers on league play.

Plus, Schalke is playing some of their best football of the season with just three losses in their last 14 matches including a draw vs Dortmund.

On the season, Schalke have lost by 3+ goals seven times, five of those coming prior to their current run, and only four of those by 4+ goals.

Meanwhile, Bayern, despite their offensive prowess, have only covered this number seven times as they concede too often making this spread that much harder to cover.

Over their last 17 Bundesliga matches, they have covered this number just twice, and both of those have come by just three goals, meaning no full-wager losses on +2.75.

Prediction: Schalke +2.75 -115

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Mainz | Saturday 5/13 | 9:30am ET

Frankfurt +110 | Draw +260 | Mainz +200
Asian Handicap: Frankfurt -0.25 | Total: 2.75

Frankfurt is a team if you look at recent results, you probably want nothing to do with them and I don’t blame you. Their last Bundesliga win came back in February at Werder Bremen, a run of ten winless matches in league play, plus two losses to Napoli in the Champions League.

However, their season is not all lost as they did have a couple of DFB Pokal (German Cup) wins to progress to the final vs RB Leipzig which gives them a chance to grab a trophy for the second straight season after winning the Europa League last year.

They won’t play that match until early June as they will finish the Bundesliga season first, giving them three more matches to build some momentum.

Despite being winless in their last ten Bundesliga games, Frankfurt has a positive xG differential in those ten games, averaging 1.42 xG per 90 minutes while allowing 1.35. At home, those numbers increase to 1.58 – 0.67 in four matches, all finishing in draws.

That is very difficult to do and is prime for some positive regression. On the season, Frankfurt has the 4th best xG differential at home averaging 1.90 per match while allowing just 1.04.

Mainz was on an unbeaten run of ten matches but have now lost back-to-back matches conceding three goals in each including three on 3.15 xGA to Schalke last Friday.

They hadn’t conceded three goals in any match in those previous ten and only twice did they allow two goals, keeping three clean sheets. On the season, Mainz has a decent away record at 6-3-6 but their xG differential is more telling at -0.48, averaging 1.35 xG while allowing 1.83.

Results may not recommend it, but underlying data suggests this line could be as high as -150 or up to -1.0. I’ll gladly grab the plus money price on Frankfurt.

Prediction: Eintracht Frankfurt Moneyline (or -0.5) +110

Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen | Sunday 5/14 | 9:30am ET

Stuttgart +160 | Draw +250 | Leverkusen +140
Asian Handicap: Pick’em +0 | Total: 2.75

If you just look at table positions, you might quickly think this is a gift to take Leverkusen on the Draw no Bet line vs Stuttgart who is in the bottom three of the table. But the situation here is strongly in favor of Stuttgart and a big reason why we are seeing this “trap” line.

Leverkusen play their biggest match of the season on Thursday as they travel to Roma for Leg 1 of the Europa League semifinals. Then they play this match just three days later, followed by Leg 2 only four days after that.

Given Leverkusen sit eight points back of a Champions League spot with only three Bundesliga matches remaining, this match essentially means nothing when they are looking at a potential trophy and a path back to the Champions League by winning the Europa League.

Meanwhile, Stuttgart is also playing the biggest match of their season this week, but it is this game vs Leverkusen.

Stuttgart is currently 16th in the table and fighting for their lives against relegation, two points back of Schalke and safety.

With three matches remaining in the season, every point is crucial for them and with Leverkusen’s focus elsewhere, and likely with a rotated side, this is a great opportunity to earn three points with a win.

Stuttgart has been decent at home this year with a 5-4-6 record, +1 goal differential and +0.19 xG differential per 90 minutes.

They were also on an unbeaten run of four matches including two wins and two draws before their loss at Hertha Berlin last weekend. Over their last six matches, which does include two losses, they are averaging 1.89 xG while allowing 1.49.

Leverkusen saw their run of nine straight Bundesliga matches without a loss snapped over the weekend at home vs Koln, which also snapped a run of 14 unbeaten in all competitions. On the road though, they haven’t been great with just six wins in 15 Bundesliga matches including a -0.34 xG differential.

I only mention that data just to give you an idea that Leverkusen isn’t necessarily as good as their results have been.

When it comes to this match, it’s purely situational and I’ll take the chance on a team that is desperate for a win vs a team more interested in another competition. If this line (mistakenly) moves to +0.25 at a price of -125 or less for Stuttgart, this becomes an absolute must-take.

Prediction: Stuttgart +0 (DRAW NO BET)