Champions League Match Day 4 Preview: Sporting vs Besiktas
Sporting vs Besiktas Picks and Predictions
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Sporting vs Besiktas, highlighting the UEFA Champions League Match Day 4 contest on Wednesday, November 3. At the time of posting, the Portuguese side is a -220 favorite against their opponents from Turkey with the total sitting at 2.75 goals.
Stay on top of the latest Soccer updates direct from Las Vegas!
Sporting vs Besiktas Betting Preview
- Sporting Lisbon -220
- Besiktas +585
- Draw +365
- Total: 2.75 goals
- Sporting won the first leg 4-1 in Istanbul
Simply put, Sporting is a better team from a better league and that was clearly on display two weeks ago when these teams met in Turkey as Sporting cruised to a 4-1 road win. In that match, the Portuguese side generated 20 shots with nine on goal while holding Besiktas to just nine shots and only two on goal. Those numbers led to an xG tally of 4.56 – 0.95 in favor of Sporting. I’m not expecting to see that high of an xG tally again here for Sporting, but around 3.0 seems likely considering Besiktas has allowed at least 3.0 xG in all three group stage matches thus far.
Besiktas first hosted Dortmund on Matchday 1, falling 1-2 at home to Haaland and company but keeping the xG tally to a somewhat respectable 1.24 – 3.08 final. It got worse in Matchday 2 when they traveled to the Netherlands to face Ajax, losing 0-2 but the final xG for both teams showed an even more lopsided match at 0.88 – 3.56. Then of course they lost at home hosting Sporting to an even bigger xG blowout as I already mentioned.
Domestically, Besiktas has been struggling as well. They started off the season unbeaten in their first four games with three wins and a draw without conceding a single goal. However, once the Champions League group stage began, their league form started to falter.
Generally what you will see during Champions and Europa League season, is that smaller teams from smaller leagues such as Besiktas from Turkey, struggle to cope with juggling both the domestic league schedule as well as the European league schedule simply because they don’t have a deep roster and players have to deal with tired legs far too often. Compared to the big boys of Europe like Manchester United or Bayern Munich, for example, who can sub players in and out of their starting XI and not miss beat. With such deep pockets, even the non-starting regulars are better than the top players on these smaller teams.
That being said, besides going 0-3 in the group stage so far, Besiktas now have just three wins in their last seven Super Lig games as well.
Meanwhile Sporting have been cruising in the Liga Portugal, going unbeaten so far this season in ten games with eight wins and two draws. The defending champs went unbeaten in their first 32 league games last season before losing their penultimate match of the year, after the league title had already been clinched. Liga Portugal teams play 34 matches in a league season. That means over their last two seasons, Sporting has one loss in now 42 league games.
That’s clearly a fantastic run and even more impressive considering the overall competition of the league is much better than the Turkey Super Lig, as they have to face other Champions League teams like Porto and Benfica.
Sporting vs Besiktas Prediction
Sporting currently sit in 3rd-place in the group and a win here will all but assure them of at least a Europa League knockout qualification with still a decent chance to qualify in the Top 2 and make the Champions League knockout rounds. Further, Besiktas will be without arguably their best player in Miralem Pjanic who is out injured. Pjanic scored Besiktas’ only two goals so far in Champions League play.
Lastly, I won’t go as far as saying Besiktas are throwing in the towel with their Champions League aspirations, but they have a huge game coming up this weekend domestically, as they host league-leading Trabzonspor on Saturday which they cannot afford to lose more points or they may dig too deep of a hole to climb out of.
Pay the premium here to grab Sporting -1.0 instead of -1.25 to protect against a one goal win.
Soccer Betting Guide
What’s the difference between the two-way and three-way line in soccer betting? What does the Asian handicap mean? If the game ends in a draw, do you get your money back? Check out our Soccer Betting Guide to become more familiar with the nuances of betting on soccer.
Stoppage Time
Match Day 4 of the 2021-22 UEFA Champions League kicks off on Tuesday, November 2 as the top teams in Europe battle to stay alive in the world’s most prestigious club soccer competition. Join Carmine Bianco, Nick Borrman, Pavlos Laguretos and Kevin Dolan for Stoppage Time at 10am ET / 7am PT as they offer their thoughts on this week’s featured games from the Champions League: Atalanta vs Manchester United; Juventus vs Zenit St. Petersburg; RB Leipzig vs PSG; and Borussia Dortmund vs Ajax.
Soccer Betting 101
Kelly Stewart sits down with WagerTalk soccer handicappers Nick Borrman and Carmine Bianco to go over soccer betting tips for beginners.
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the UEFA Champions League moneylines, goal spreads and totals, including this Sporting vs Besiktas showdown, from your desktop or phone.
**************************************************
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!
