Cincinnati vs LAFC Prediction and Betting Odds | MLS April 24
Cincinnati vs LAFC Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his Cincinnati vs LAFC betting preview for Sunday, April 24. After winning only four matches last season, FC Cincinnati is already half way toward that total in 2022. But how much have they actually improved? We should learn more on Sunday…
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| Sunday, April 24 | MLS Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| LAFC: | -105 |
| FC Cincinnati: | +270 |
| Draw: | +285 |
| Total: | 3 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 5:00pm ET / 2:00pm PT |
Cincinnati vs LAFC Analysis
I wrote an article earlier this month previewing another LAFC match and started off by discussing their 2021 performance, or rather, their underperformance. They were second in the entire MLS in xG differential per game at +0.63 per game yet somehow failed to even qualify for the playoffs. They parted ways with their manager Bob Bradley and perhaps that was the golden ticket that has turned the team around.
LAFC’s Turnaround
In comes Steve Cherundolo at the helm and LAFC is now atop the xG table with a +1.18 differential per game. However, this time around they are getting the results in line with those underlying metrics. They lead the Western Conference with a 5-1-1 record and +10 goal differential, scoring 17 goals already in just seven matches.
On top of the manager change, Carlos Vela is back healthy for the team and scoring goals once again as he managed just nine goals in 28 matches over the last two seasons. In either case, the positive regression is certainly a welcome sight in Los Angeles.
An Improved Cincinnati?
I would quickly answer yes, they are improved from last year, but that wasn’t hard to do as they were the worst team in the league with just four wins in 34 matches with an ugly -37 goal differential. xG backed up those results as they averaged the worst differential in the league at -0.59 per game.
This season, they are already halfway to last year’s win total as they have two wins to go along with one draw. However, this is where I argue their improvement may not be as good as it looks, rather, their results have been the product of a fortunate schedule.
More telling of who this team is can be found in their last match, a 0-0 draw at Atlanta which on the surface seems solid, but underneath, screams major problems. They allowed a whopping 3.40 xG to Atlanta on 22 shots, yet somehow kept the Three Stripes off the scoreboard. Cincy meanwhile didn’t register a single shot on goal.
Cincinnati vs LAFC Prediction
It’s hard to look past LAFC here in this game. They are in the top four offensively in average shots and shots on goal per game while ranking in the the top three defensively in those same categories. Plus, I already mentioned they rank No. 1 in the MLS in xG differential while also leading defensively, allowing just 0.81 xGA per game.
If we see xG numbers anywhere near like Cincinnati’s last match, I fully expect LAFC to put away those chances so I’ll gladly grab LAFC -0.25 (-120) on the Asian handicap, which will likely reach -0.5 by kickoff.
Soccer Betting 101
New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.
WagerTalk Soccer Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, goal spreads and totals for all of this weekend’s MLS games, including this Cincinnati vs LAFC showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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