Dortmund vs RB Leipzig Expert Prediction and Picks | German Bundesliga Betting Preview March 3

Dortmund vs RB Leipzig Betting Preview

Both Dortmund and RB Leipzig have scored exactly 45 goals and have allowed 27 so far in German Bundesliga play with Sportsmemo soccer handicapper Nick Borrman breaking down this Dortmund vs RB Leipzig match before start time at 2:45pm ET from Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund, Germany.

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Dortmund vs RB Leipzig Betting Odds

Thursday, March 2	German Bundesliga Betting Notes
Dortmund:	+125
RB Leipzig:	+200
Draw:	+275
Total:	3 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings)
Game Time:	2:30pm ET / 11:30am PT

Dortmund vs RB Leipzig Betting Analysis

Easily the biggest matchup of the week in the Bundesliga and possibly the most important match of the season thus far as Dortmund sits tied atop the table with Bayern Munich on 46 points while Leipzig is just four points back and currently occupying the 4th and final Champions League qualification.

Bayern has been untouchable for the last decade as they have won the Bundesliga a ridiculous ten straight years, but this season finally appears like a real opportunity for another team to end that run.

Dortmund Can’t Look Ahead to Champions League

Dortmund have been playing as good as anyone since the World Cup break as they have been perfect winning all nine matches in all competitions including a leg 1 win over Chelsea in the Champions League.

That is a slight danger here for the Black and Yellows as they have leg 2 coming up just four days after this match as they travel to London with a 1-0 lead. Dortmund absolutely needs a result from this match, but it’s hard not to look ahead to a Champions League match.

I mentioned how good Dortmund has been since the break, but they actually rank 2nd in NPxG (non-penalty) differential in their seven Bundesliga matches with a +7.5 cumulative advantage. The team that ranks ahead of them, however, is this RB Leipzig side with a +9.0 NPxG differential in one less match nonetheless.

RB Leipzig Recent Matches

RB Leipzig’s only slip-up was a surprise 1-2 home loss vs Union Berlin, the other team currently in the Top-4 of the table, but besides that, they are unbeaten in their other eight matches with five wins and three draws.

Two of those draws were very impressive vs Bayern Munich in their first match back from the break and vs Manchester City in leg 1 of their Champions League tie. It is worth noting that both of those matches came at home though.

Dortmund vs RB Leipzig Expert Prediction

Dortmund has scored more goals than any team since the break with 20, while Leipzig have allowed the fewest, just five on only 3.6 xG. I’ll always side with the team with a strong defense getting a head start.

Leipzig also have the momentum in the H2H series winning each of the last three including a 3-0 win in the reverse fixture back in September. Defensive form, recent H2H bias and a possible look-ahead spot all give a slight edge to Leipzig.

Prediction: RB Leipzig +0.25 -120

Soccer Betting Tips

New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic soccer betting tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.

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First time at WagerTalk? Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code NEWS1 when checking out! Click here to select your picks and then apply the best bargain of 2023 with coupon code NEWS1. 

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About The Author

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago.

Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe.

Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League.

Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America.

Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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