England vs Italy Prediction and Betting Odds | UEFA Nations League June 11
England vs Italy Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Kevin Dolan shares his thoughts on Saturday’s England vs Italy clash in the UEFA Nations League. These teams have played incredibly tight over the years, with each of their last three head-to-head meetings finishing in 1-1 draws after 90 minutes and neither side has won by more than one goal since 1977.
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| Saturday, June 11 | UEFA Nations League Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| England: | -105 |
| Italy: | +310 |
| Draw: | +240 |
| Total: | 2.25 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 2:45pm ET / 11:45am PT |
England vs Italy Analysis
England will no doubt be glad to get back home after their two most recent road trips to open up this group produced just one point total after losing away to Hungary in the opening game and then needing a late Harry Kane penalty two minutes from time to rescue a point against Germany on Tuesday night also.
Italy has fared a little better, similarly drawing against the Germans as England did and beating Hungary on Tuesday night also. However both of those games were at home for Italy and they’ll face their first road test against England here on Saturday.
Italy Lack Cutting Edge In Attack
A positive note for Italy over this competition so far is in their attack where the Italians lead the group in both total goals, total shots and open play attacks also, however without the cutting edge of a player like Chiesa in attack, a lot of those attacks have been wasted by the Italians.
A not so positive note for Italy however is in their aggression stats with the Italians having almost double the number of cards of any other team in the group and with Polish referee Szymon Marciniak in charge for this game, a referee who has awarded 12 penalties over just his last 20 games, that’s a dangerous stat to own.
England’s Attack Leaves A Lot To Be Desired
England boss Gareth Southgate has often come in for criticism for his lack of adventure in managing this England side, a team that is arguably gifted with one of the most potent attacking forces in all of world football.
And that criticism isn’t likely to dissipate either with England producing just one goal over their opening two games, a late Harry Kane penalty to rescue that point against Germany.
England also had the same scoring attempts as Hungary in the opening game and had almost 20% fewer attacks than Germany in Tuesday night’s game also, so fans will no doubt be pushing for a more aggressive showing from England here on Saturday.
Another weak attacking performance from the English on Saturday night however, especially one at home, might start to put some pressure on Southgate’s position.
England vs Italy Prediction
We lean Over in this game on Saturday night as England, currently sitting bottom of the group and the fans demanding a response, will no doubt look to go more on the offensive here, especially after losing to the Italians at home in the European final last summer as well.
Italy likewise have been too a little too reckless over those opening two games and are liable to give away a dangerous set-piece to England, but have shown plenty of attacking threat themselves up front and we expect both teams to push this one over the total on Saturday night with what should prove to be an entertaining game between the two old rivals.
Take the over 2.25 goals on Saturday between Italy and England over in the Nations League.
Stoppage Time | UEFA Nations League Betting Preview
Join Carmine, Nick and Kevin for Stoppage Time as we break down this week’s featured matchups in the UEFA Nations League, including Belgium vs Poland; Portugal vs Czech Republic; and Switzerland vs Spain.
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Meet the Author
‘The sharpest sports mind in Ireland’ is how one prominent newspaper dubbed Kevin Dolan after he became the first foreigner ever to win the World Series of Handicapping tournament back in 2015. “The Irishman” made his start wagering on GAA, football, soccer and boxing, all to immense success. Since becoming a professional bettor, he has since lit up the sports betting scene in the U.S. and abroad, winning two handicapping awards and writing a best-selling book on sports handicapping named ‘The Complete Guide to Sports Betting’.
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