EPL Match Day 15 Betting Preview | Premier League Predictions and Odds
Premier League Match Day 15 Betting Preview
Match Day 15 on the Premier League schedule marks the last game before the World Cup break. WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman shares his thoughts on a handful of the marquee matchups in the EPL this weekend.
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Newcastle vs Chelsea Betting Odds
| Saturday, November 12 | EPL Match Day 15 Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Newcastle United: | +135 |
| Chelsea: | +210 |
| Draw: | +245 |
| Total: | 2.5 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 12:30pm ET / 9:30am PT |
Newcastle vs Chelsea Betting Analysis
Wow. One can only wonder what this line would have looked like back on Match Day one. Chelsea -0.25 at minimum, maybe even -0.5?! A lot has changed since then, and while we have talked plenty about Chelsea’s issues, we haven’t said enough good things about Newcastle.
Newcastle ranks in the top-6 in every major category: Expected goals, expected goals allowed, shots for, shots on target, shots allowed, etc., it’s no wonder they sit third in the table. They only have one loss on the year which came at Liverpool and own a very strong +17 goal differential, having scored the third-most goals in the league while allowing the joint fewest. At home, they have yet to lose a match with four wins and three draws while allowing just five goals.
Newcastle is 11-2-1 on the goal spread in their matches this season while Chelsea is just 4-8-1. The concern I have is at what point do we start losing value, or better put, at what point did we miss our chance to beat the oddsmakers on a certain team?
With this line, I feel like that time has come. There is no arguing what Newcastle has done but getting a +0.25 head start on Chelsea feels like too much of an over-correction and getting +210 for them to win, just seems very hard to pass up.
Then again, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chelsea lose by three goals. Recommendation: Chelsea +0.25 (-120).
Wolves vs Arsenal Betting Odds
| Saturday, November 12 | EPL Match Day 15 Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Wolverhampton: | +550 |
| Arsenal: | -185 |
| Draw: | +320 |
| Total: | 2.75 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 2:45pm ET / 11:45am PT |
Wolves vs Arsenal Betting Analysis
To argue against my last point, there is no doubt we have missed our chance in terms of catching value on Arsenal this season. They will be overvalued in every match from here on out unless they go on a serious losing streak. That being said, my money does not want to get in front of this freight train.
We have all been waiting for the expected “Arsenal slide” to show up, but it just has not happened. Quite the opposite in fact, as they seem to be stepping up in big matches like we have not seen from them in quite some time.
Granted, this is not what anyone would consider a “big match” for Arsenal, but with this being the last match before the World Cup break, I think we see Arteta have these guys focused on the field for another win.
What has been even more worrisome for Wolves here, is how inept their offense has been this season. 0.85 xG per match ranks No. 19 in the league as they have generated more than 1.0 xG in just five matches this season, while their eight goals scored ranks dead last. That is not something to be excited about as the team who has allowed the joint fewest goals in the league comes to town.
Arsenal is 8-4-1 on the goal spread this season while Wolverhampton is 4-9-1. The value may be gone by now though, but I think worst case we are looking at a push. Recommendation: Arsenal -1.0 (-110).
Fulham vs Manchester United Betting Odds
| Sunday, November 13 | EPL Match Day 15 Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Fulham: | +290 |
| Manchester United: | -110 |
| Draw: | +290 |
| Total: | 3 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 11:30am ET / 8:30am PT |
Fulham vs Manchester United Betting Analysis
I have struggled to get a good read on United all season and I’ve avoided wagering on most of their matches. I finally decided to back them last weekend and I got rewarded with a 3-1 loss at Aston Villa.
However, Fulham has been much easier to read this year and that is simply to back goals in their matches. Fulham has the highest “Both Teams to Score” record at 11-3, with 12 of their 14 matches seeing at least three goals.
Fulham’s defense is terrible, allowing 2.13 xGA per game (most in the league), so their only option is to push for goals which they rank No. 10 in the league with a respectable 1.39 xG.
Fulham has only been held off the scoresheet twice this season which came against Wolves and Everton, both in exciting 0-0 draws. They have scored in every other match this season, including games against Manchester City, Tottenham, Arsenal, Liverpool and the new league sweethearts, Newcastle.
Manchester United has kept five clean sheets on the year, but only two on the road and none in their last four including conceding to both Everton and Aston Villa. Fulham plays a style of game that is likely to present opportunities both ways and I think we see plenty of chances for both sides.
With the total set at 3 goals, you’re likely going to need both teams to hit the net for an over to cash. So instead of that route, we’re looking toward Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 Goals, which is available as a stand-alone wager or available as part of a same-game parlay at most books. Recommendation: BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals.
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Stoppage Time | European Soccer Betting Tips
The Premier League will enter its final match day before the World Cup break with Arsenal at the top of the table and Newcastle in third. Who saw those coming three months ago?! Join Carmine Bianco, Kevin Dolan, Pavlos Laguretos and Nick Borrman for Stoppage Time as we preview this weekend’s marquee matchups in the Premier League.
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Meet the Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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