Europa League Predictions, Picks and Odds for May 18

Betting Preview for Europa League Predictions May 18

WagerTalk Europa League handicapper Kevin Dolan presents his Europa League predictions and picks for May 18 including Leverkusen vs Roma and Sevilla vs Juventus. Which teams is he looking to advance and which will have goals being scored? Read his betting preview now!

Leverkusen vs Roma | Thursday, May 18 | 3:00 pm ET

Leverkusen +100 | Roma +280 | Draw +240

It’s been a distracting few days for Bayer Leverkusen overall as a draw against Stuttgart on the weekend pushed them out of the final Europa League spot in the German Bundesliga as Wolfsburg took 6th spot owing to their superior goal difference.

On top of that, manager Xabi Alonso has also been heavily targetted by Tottenham’s board, according to rumors, to take over in North London over the summer as well, sitting neck and neck with Feyenoord manager Arne Slot at the time of writing as the books current favorites to take charge at Tottenham.

Those are distractions Bayer Leverkusen hardly need ahead of this one as they face an incredibly well-drilled, well organized Roma side in this one who know how to get over the line in big pressure cooker tournament type atmospheres, already sitting as the current Europa Conference League champions from last season.

That said, Bayer Leverkusen did look impressive coming out of the blocks last week, with Robert Andrich and Florian Wirtz both getting into good positions to score early but failing to capitalize.

However, Leverkusen’s home form this year has barely been any better than their road form, especially in this competition, where they’ve actually averaged a far lower expected goals tally in offense in the Bay Arena, but have more than made up for this by being far tighter defensively, giving up almost 65% fewer clear-cut chances at home this season against Europa League opponents.

Those offensive numbers are a major concern however, especially as Leverkusen can’t afford to sit back and defend in this game and will need to try and press at some point against a Roma defense that has allowed an average of just 0.43 goals per game at the back across the Europa League knockout rounds so far.

This is exactly the type of matchup Roma manager Jose Mourinho thrives on, being able to dictate play defensively while the pressure remains on his opponents to try and generate an opening, something the Giallorossi can then capitalize on at the other end.

With that, we’re quite happy to take Roma plus the +0.5 headstart in this one with a look towards the under as well.

Prediction: Roma +0.5 (-117)

Sevilla vs Juventus | Thursday, May 18 | 3:00pm ET

Sevilla +140 | Juventus +205 | Draw +225

Falling short of major European silverware seems to be almost an annual goal of this Juventus team over the last couple of decades, with the Italian giants not having won a major European trophy since their 1996 squad lifted the Champions League crown with a penalty shootout win against Ajax.

While there have been a couple of finals since then, the Bianconeri have nevertheless failed to live up to their glory days, but with competition favorites Arsenal, Barcelona, and Manchester United already out at this stage of the competition, it looked like Juventus might finally return to the top table of European football as they headed into last week’s semi-final first leg against Sevilla in Turin.

However, it wasn’t to be as Sevilla, the Europa League’s most successful ever team, delivered yet another masterclass with striker Youssef En-Nesyri putting the visitors ahead with a clinical finish after only the first 26 minutes of action.

Sevilla looked to be the team with momentum from that point on and were unlucky not to add to their lead just before half-time as Juventus were clearly rattled. However, the Italian side gradually grew in confidence as the game wore on, with their persistence finally paying off through a late Federico Gatti header deep into stoppage time to earn a draw.

Even with the six-time competition winners returning home to the Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan on Thursday, going in as deserved favorites also, Juventus shouldn’t be underestimated here as they’ve already proved their mettle on the road over this campaign, beating Nantes in a 3-0 rout earlier in the knockout rounds.

In fact Juventus have allowed just one goal away from total in their three knockout round away ties, shutting out both Nantes and Freiburg on foreign soil, so certainly won’t fear a trip to Spain either, and at the current line of Juventus +0.25, we’re happy to side with the Italian giants in this one to potentially push this one into extra-time on Thursday.

Prediction: Juventus +0.25 (-120)

Basel vs Fiorentina | Thursday, May 18 | 3:00pm ET (UECL)

Fiorentina -265 | Basel +705 | Draw +410

Fiorentina left a lot of people scratching their heads last week in terms of their overall stunted attack in leg one which, despite having almost 60% of the total possession in the game, actually ended up creating very little threat to the Basel backline over the course of the 90+ minutes.

‘I Viola’ had opened up at -1 ahead of that leg one clash, but by kick-off, that line had climbed all the way up to Fiorentina -1.5 as most observers felt that Fiorentina, one of the hottest teams in European football heading into last week’s game, would have far too much offensive firepower for Basel to deal with and effectively put one leg into the final with a comprehensive display at home against an overmatched Basel side.

However, that wasn’t to be the case as, bar an early breakthrough for former Basel player Arthur Cabral, Fiorentina actually ended up creating very little over the course of the game as the Swiss side set up a well-marshaled perimeter that effectively shut Fiorentina out for the majority of the contest.

The same however could not be said of the Fiorentina defense which shipped two goals over the final twenty minutes of action to see them facing the exit door of this competition ahead of leg two in Switzerland on Thursday.

This is an incredibly difficult game to predict as while the home side will no doubt feel euphoric after last week’s surprising result over in Italy and should bring that newfound confidence to bear in leg two.

Another side of the argument would suggest that given Fiorentina’s exceptional data numbers this season, that they’ll have enough to correct that first leg result and at least push this one into extra-time with a road win on Thursday.

Fiorentina to win outright would be our lean in this one but Basel should provide a stern test to the Italian side on Thursday, and likely won’t be an easy out in their home fortress of St. Jakob-Park in what should be a fascinating encounter.

Prediction: Fiorentina ML (-129)