FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union Prediction and Betting Odds | MLS August 6
FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Saturday’s MLS action between FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union. Philadelphia is in first place in the MLS with FC Cincinnati sitting in ninth.
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| Saturday, August 6 | MLS Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati: | +191 |
| Philadelphia Union: | +141 |
| Draw: | +247 |
| Total: | 2.5 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 7:30pm ET / 4:30pm PT |
FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union Analysis
Philadelphia is right where we predicted them to be at this point of the season, sitting atop the Eastern Conference with 45 points and currently riding a 5-game win streak, putting our +1600 future on them in great position. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is having a much-improved season after an embarrassingly bad 2021 campaign and currently sit 9th in the table. They are tied with Miami and Charlotte on 29 points for that last playoff spot.
There is a chance of t-storms in the afternoon but those should be gone by kickoff with temperatures in the low 80s.
Union’s Eyes on the Prize
After falling just short last season, falling to eventual champions NYCFC in the Eastern Conference Finals, Philly looks primed to make another deep run to possibly lift the MLS Cup.
They have the best defense in the league, leading in both xGA, 1.06 per game, and actual goals allowed, 15 through 23 matches. Because of that, they have lost a league-low two matches on the season.
Offensively they are tough to stop as well as they spread the love around with Gazdag leading the way with 11 goals while both Carranza and Danish newcomer Uhre scoring eight each.
NYCFC is the only team in the East that could possibly challenge them, but they just loaned their Golden Boot winner, Castellanos to Girona in Spain. Now’s the time for Philly.
Cincy, No Longer the League’s Punching Bag?
It’s been a rough first three seasons in the MLS for Cincinnati, finishing dead last, not only in the East, but in all the MLS each season. They owned a combined -105 goal differential over those three campaigns which probably would have been worse if not for the COVID-shortened 2020 season. They were also dead last or next to dead last in xG differential with their best season coming in at -0.47 and their worst at -0.70.
Last year they were dead last in both actual goals allowed, 74 in 34 matches, and xGA, allowing 1.79 per game. This year, although their record and table position are higher than they have ever been in their short MLS history, that is all due to an improved offense. Defensively, they have still conceded the 3rd most goals while also allowing the 5th most xGA.
FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union Prediction
Sometimes the oddsmakers offer up a line that seems too good to be true, but I’m more than willing to take the bait on the best defense in the MLS vs one of the worst without having to lay any goals and no risk if the game ends in a draw.
Philly has lost just twice this season and is riding a five-game winning streak outscoring their opponents 18-2 during that run. Ride the hot hand here and take advantage of the Draw No Bet line of Philadelphia +0 (-125).
Prediction: Draw No Bet Line Line Philadelphia +0 (-125)
Soccer Betting 101
New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.
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Meet the Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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