FIFA World Cup Golden Boot, Top Goal Scorer Picks, Predictions and Odds
FIFA World Cup Preview
The World Cup kicks off on Sunday, November 20 in Qatar as the world’s best gather to determine the best team in the world. I may be biased in my opinion, but it is the greatest single sporting tournament in the world.
When it comes to wagering on the World Cup, there are almost endless possibilities including top goalscorer (Golden Boot), highest scoring team and even a particular team’s total goals, and those are what we will tackle in this article.
Top Goal Scorer Picks
When it comes to this future, it’s easy to look at the big names and simply throw a wager on them, but it’s worth taking a deeper look into tournament paths for the teams.
It goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway, the more games a team has, the more opportunities a player will have to score goals.
It’s hard to imagine any of the top seeds not reaching the knockout rounds, but perhaps you smell an upset in the round of 16. It may be wise to stay away from any players on those teams.
Neymar +1200 (Brazil)
This one doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out, Brazil is the tournament favorite and it seems very unlikely they get eliminated any time before the semifinal.
That of course will lead to the maximum number of seven games as you must remember, there is a 3rd place game in the event of a loss in the semifinal.
In all honesty, there are two possible options for top goalscorer on this Brazil side and that’s Neymar and Richarlson.
However, Neymar is the striker and most importantly, the penalty taker for this team which gives him the edge in this category. Digging a little deeper, the tiebreaker for this award looks at number of assists and that too, gives Neymar the edge.
Take for example, the four friendlies Brazil played in June and September in preparation for the World Cup. Both Richarlson and Neymar each scored four goals. Richarlson’s goals all came through open play while all four of Neymar’s goals were scored via penalty.
The thing is, Neymar assisted on two of Richarlson’s goals, while nobody can assist on Neymar’s penalties.
Brazil will dominate possession and chances in the opponents’ final third in most games which will lead to penalty opportunities. If Neymar can add a couple goals through open play along the way, it will be hard to top how many times he finds the net in this competition.
Memphis Depay +2400 (Netherlands)
First, it must be said that I am expecting a deep run from this Dutch side which will lead to plenty of opportunities for their best goalscorer.
However, this suggestion doesn’t come without some risk. Depay has been sidelined since the last international break with a hamstring injury but he has announced he is fully fit and ready to go for this World Cup.
However, he has been told that he is not going to start their first match vs Senegal. While that is clearly not a great thing to hear when looking to wager on a guy you expect to score a lot of goals, here is why I am OK with it.
Senegal is set to be their toughest competition in the group. The recent AFCON champions are loaded with talent and will most likely be the only team to contain their attacking threats.
Even still, you better believe Depay will get on the field at some point, most likely, somewhere in the 60-70’ minute timeframe. That will give him close to a half hour to possibly snag a goal or even an assist and get some game action under his belt.
Assuming all goes well from a health standpoint, I expect Depay to then start all their remaining games. Additionally, like Neymar, Depay is the penalty taker for this team, and I always take that into consideration when wagering on a Golden Boot.
Highest Scoring Team Brazil +500
This one basically goes hand in hand with top goalscorer with sheer number of games as the most important factor. Full transparency, I’m not wagering on Brazil to win the World Cup, mostly because I believe a European team will lift the trophy as they have in each of the last four.
However, Brazil can easily put up four or five goals in any given match and thus could score more goals than any other team, even with fewer games.
Brazil face Serbia, who is a very offensive minded team (possible shootout), Switzerland, who will likely be the toughest defensive test for them, and Cameroon, who are far from a pushover, but easily the weakest team in the group.
Round of 16 sets them up against Uruguay or possibly South Korea, the former a side they scored four against during qualification.
Next up, Spain or Germany with the latter probably allowing for more goal scoring opportunities. If they past those tests, they are guaranteed two more matches and at that point, it seems all but certain they will have netted the most.
Argentina to Score Under 9.5 Goals (-125)
This opportunity is only afforded to us for the fact that books and most public bettors expect a deep run from Argentina, but I’m not so sure.
While I obviously believe Argentina win their group, I don’t think it will be because they score 7 or 8 goals in the group.
They may only score 4 or 5 and still easily win it. Even if they do score a few more, I’m not as high on Argentina as so many people are and a quick exit in the first or second knockout game should keep us under this total.
In fact, Winning the group could put them up against France in the first round which is what happened in 2018 and they were eliminated. The other most likely scenario is playing a good Denmark team, another very losable game.
If they get past either team, they then likely face Netherlands who I am high on this year and I don’t think they make it past the Dutch at that point.
While you may be inclined to take Messi as a top goalscorer in this tournament, and I certainly can’t fault you, the above reasoning is why I’m leaving the Argentinian star off my card.
| Sportsbook | Welcome Bonus | States Available | Get Your Bonus |
| 1. PointsBet | $2000 in Risk Free Bets | NJ, IN, IA, IL, CO, MI, VA, NY, KS, LA | Claim Now! |
| 2. Caesars | $1250 Risk Free Bet | NJ, WV, CO, IN, IA, MI, VA, TN, AZ, NY, LA, KS, PA | Claim Now! |
| 3. BetMGM | $1000 Risk Free Bet | NJ, PA, WV, IN, CO, TN, IA, MI, VA, DC, WY, MS, AZ, NY, LA, KS | Claim Now! |
| 4.DraftKings | $1000 Deposit Match | NJ, PA, WV, IN, CO, IL, IA, TN, MI, VA, WY, AZ, NY, LA, KS | Claim Now! |
| 5. FanDuel | $1000 Risk Free Bet | NJ, PA, WV, IN, CO, IA, IL, TN, MI, VA, AZ, NY, LA, ON, KS | Claim Now! |
| 6. BetRivers | $500 in Free Bets | PA, IN, CO, MI, IA, IL, VA, NY, NJ | Click State To Claim |
| 7. Unibet | $250 Risk Free Bet | NJ, PA, IN, IA, VA, AZ | Click State To Claim |
| 8. FoxBet | $50 Risk Free Bet | NJ, PA, CO, MI | Claim Now! |
Stoppage Time | 2022 World Cup Betting Preview
The 2022 World Cup kicks off on Sunday as host nation Qatar takes on Ecuador. Which favorites will endure some trouble? Which darkhorses are ready to emerge? Join Carmine Bianco, Kevin Dolan, Pavlos Laguretos and Nick Borrman for Stoppage Time as we preview the World Cup from a variety of handicapping angles.
2022 World Cup Group Predictions
*** About The Author***
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS game seven years ago. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Of course, you can’t forget the fast-growing MLS which finishes the year-round soccer schedule through the summer months in North America. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!
