Fiorentina vs Juventus Predictions and Odds | Coppa Italia March 2
Fiorentina vs Juventus Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his Fiorentina vs Juventus betting preview for Wednesday, March 2 in the Coppa Italia semifinals. How will Dusan Vlahovic’s flip-flop from Fiorentina to Juventus affect Wednesday’s clash?
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| Wednesday, March 2 | Coppa Italia Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Fiorentina: | +180 |
| Juventus: | +160 |
| Draw: | +230 |
| Total: | 2.5 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT |
Fiorentina vs Juventus Analysis
We can’t really look at Serie A stats to try and figure out the play in this game for two reasons. First, this is a two-leg knockout style matchup, obviously much different than playing weekly league matches.
Second, with Dusan Vlahovic switching jerseys, most of Fiorentina’s numbers must be looked at with an asterisk, at least on the offense side, as Dusan scored 20 goals in 24 matches for Fiorentina this season between Serie A and Coppa Italia. Seventeen of those goals came in Serie A which accounted for a whopping 42% of Fiorentina’s goals at the time of his departure.
Defensively though, Fiorentina was having a solid year, allowing just 1.21 xGA (expected goals allowed) per game and at home, they conceded just 15 goals in 12 league matches this season.
The Missing Piece
The biggest storyline of this matchup is of course, Vlahovic playing his former team for the first time after being sold to Juventus during the January transfer window. Now, without Vlahovic up front, Fiorentina have looked to Krzysztof Piatek to do the scoring and so far, he has delivered with four goals in the four games he has started since the departure of Vlahovic, accounting for 57% of Fiorentina’s scoring. Piatek joined Fiorentina at the beginning of January on loan from Bundesliga side Hertha Berlin, so he is only beginning to get his feet wet with the Italian side.
The Old Lady Refusing to Lose
There was a lot said of Juventus’ slow start this season, winless in their first four Serie A games, but they have looked like the Juventus we have all come to know as of late. Amazingly, they haven’t lost a game (in 90’ minutes of regulation) since Thanksgiving, a run of 18 straight games in all competitions. Their only loss came in the Italian Super Cup against Inter Milan in extra time.
It’s been vintage Juventus during their current run as they have allowed more than one goal just twice during those 18 games. Also in classic Juventus fashion, they scored more than two goals just three times during that stretch.
As I mentioned before, we can’t put too much stock into Serie A numbers when looking at this game, but it is worth mentioning that Juventus have allowed just 1.02 xGA per game this season on the fewest shots allowed per game in the league at 3.0. In fact, Juventus won the lone Serie A meeting between these teams so far this season by a score of 1-0, allowing just one single shot on goal to Fiorentina, and of course, that was with Vlahovic in the Fiorentina starting XI.
Fiorentina vs Juventus Prediction
This line is set very well and there is not a ton of value in the traditional markets on this game. However, the double chance and total goals market offers some great value here considering the series history between these teams.
Fiorentina has won just five of the last 46 meetings between these teams with 16 draws and 25 Juventus wins, plus only ten of those 46 meetings finished with more than three goals including each of the last 12 meetings all finishing with three or fewer.
Add in the fact that both defenses have been solid this year while Fiorentina’s main scoring threat is gone, and the combination play of Juventus Double Chance (Win or Tie) and under 3.5 goals at -125 looks like a fantastic option to play this game. Most American books have this listed under Same -Game Parlay.
Interested in placing a bet on Wednesday’s Fiorentina vs Juventus showdown in the Coppa Italia? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 match bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.
Stoppage Time | European Soccer Predictions
Join Carmine Bianco, Kevin Dolan, Pavlos Laguretos, and Nick Borrman every Tuesday at 10am ET / 7am PT for Stoppage Time as we break down the biggest matches in Europe. On this week’s episode, we head to England to discuss this weekend’s featured Premier League matches, including Liverpool vs West Ham; Manchester City vs Manchester United; and Tottenham vs Everton.
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features odds from a variety of domestic and offshore sports books. Track the moneylines and totals for this week’s Coppa Italia matches, including this Fiorentina vs Juventus showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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