French Ligue 1 Predictions, Picks and Odds for April 5-7

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Lille vs Marseille | April 5 | 3:00pm ET

Lille +120 | Marseille +235 | Draw +240

Last season’s 3rd place finishers Marseille haven’t exactly had it as easy in French Ligue 1 this season, currently sitting 7th in the table overall and a full twenty-three points off league leaders Paris Saint-Germain at the top of the table.

What hasn’t helped the Olympians in that regard has been two straight losses in league action across their last two games, along with a greater focus on Europe this season also as they get ready to take on Benfica next week in the Europa League quarter-finals.

Facing them on Friday are a Lille side in this one continuing to go under the radar across recent seasons, with the Mastiffs owning the best expected points tally in the league last season despite finishing 5th in the table overall, a feat accentuated even further across the back half of the season also, with Lille’s 46.04 xPTS tally from January 1st on being far in excess of league winners PSG’s expected points tally of 36.21 xPTS.

Lille owns a solid recent home record against Marseille in this venue, beating the visitors in three straight league meetings inside the Stade Pierre-Mauroy Stadium, and shutting them out completely in two of those three encounters as well.

While Lille also faces a tricky European tie next week against Aston Villa in the Europa Conference League, the Mastiffs nevertheless have been superb at home across recent games, ranking as the #1 team in the league across their last six games generating 2.33 PPG on average.

Marseille meanwhile have been nowhere near that mark, generating just 1.17 PPG across their last six road games in all, and keeping a clean sheet in none of those games either.

We’ll take the home side in this one to take all three points on Friday.

French Ligue 1 Prediction: Lille -0.25 (-115)

 

PSG vs Clermont Foot | April 6 | 3:00pm ET

PSG -615 | Clermont Foot +1355 | Draw +740

Top faces bottom on Saturday night over at Parc des Princes as Paris Saint-Germain takes on Clermont Foot to try and extend their lead at the top of the table.

PSG faces a huge hurdle in trying to overcome Barcelona next week in the Champions League quarter-final first-leg in Paris, with the Catalan giants already having a sizeable advantage ahead of that game given Spanish LaLiga teams have been given the weekend off, bar Saturday’s Cope del Rey final between Mallorca and Athletic Club Bilbao.

That means PSG will likely take their foot off the gas in this game given the importance of next week’s fixture for them, along with the fact they already own a sizeable 12-point lead at the top of the table.

Clermont did manage to fashion a pretty amazing draw against PSG back in October, nullifying the Parisian’s 21 goal attempts in that game to escape with a 0-0 draw.

Even more amazingly, Clermont actually beat PSG outright in this venue last June as well in what was a crazy game overall containing multiple penalties plus a disallowed goal.

However, prior to those two fixtures, PSG absolutely ripped through Clermont in both of their previous two meetings by a full 11 goals (15 if you go back to the previous three), and with Marseille and Lille also putting at least four goals past Clermont in two of their recent fixtures as well, if PSG do decide to turn it on here, they are more than capable of racking up the scoresheet in this one and covering this line.

That said however, we envision PSG taking their foot off the gas in this one and resting players ahead of their crucial Champions League quarter-final matchup against Barcelona, with Clermont likely coming in through the back door to potentially cover on Saturday.

French Ligue 1 Prediction: Clermont Foot +2.25 (-120)

 

Montpellier vs Lorient | April 7 | 9:00am ET

Montpellier -130 | Lorient +350 | Draw +285

Huge game on Sunday down at the bottom of French Ligue 1 as just four points currently separate relegation-battling Lorient from 13th-placed Montpellier in the table.

That’s a huge concern for the home side in this one to have that gap as close as it is as Montpellier have amassed just one win at the Stade de la Mosson across their last ten home games here, with no team generating fewer wins at home this season than Montpellier has.

That’s a stat Lorient knows all too well also, as ‘Les Murles’ has also lost three straight games at home across recent matchups. However, on the road, it’s been a much different story for Lorient of late, currently unbeaten in four straight matchups, along with winning three of those four games outright as well.

Montpellier did win the reverse fixture between these two teams fairly convincingly 3-0 back in October, but Lorient has taken points off them in two of their last three meetings inside this venue, and could well do so again considering the form of both teams heading into this one.

Lorient are a live dog here on Sunday in our opinion, and we’re happy to back them plus the headstart in this one.

French Ligue 1 Prediction: Lorient +0.75 (-115)

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