French Ligue 1 Predictions, Picks and Odds for October 6-8

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Strasbourg vs Nantes | October 6 | 3:00pm ET

Strasbourg +115 | Nantes +240 | Draw +250

Mid-table clash on Friday night over at the Stade de la Meinau as traveling Nantes look to get back to winning ways against a Strasbourg side who have been incredibly inconsistent across the season so far.

Nantes were on an impressive four-game unbeaten run heading into last weekend’s game against Rennes, two of which included draws against high-flyers Monaco and Marseille as well, but were brought down to earth a little in that game as Rennes struck with two late goals to seal the win.

That result aside, however, Nantes have remained great value in the league across the last six weeks or so, with only heavyweights PSG scoring more total goals than Nantes in the league since August 25th.

Strasbourg meanwhile have continued to be frustratingly inconsistent this season, especially at home, where they’ve amassed just one point in this venue across their last two starts. However, they have shown the ability to turn it on here also, beating both Lyon and Toulouse earlier in the season.

All of the last five head-to-head matchups between the two sides at the Stade de la Meinau have seen five consecutively different results, with both teams showing a split record of W2, D1, L2 since 2018, and both teams having scored in all but one of those recent five matchups as well.

The data is in agreement with those recent historical results also, with Nantes ranking bottom five in the league away from home this season in defensive xGA, and Strasbourg also ranking bottom five at home also, as well as third in offensive xG.

Take the Both Teams to Score – yes prop on Friday in the French Ligue 1 matchup between Nantes and Strasbourg in the north-east of France.

French Ligue Prediction 1: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-125)

 

Reims vs Monaco | October 7 | 3:00pm ET

Reims +165 | Monaco +150 | Draw +265

Monaco resumed their place at the top of the French Ligue 1 standings last week after a 3-2 come-from-behind win against Marseille, which was enough to see them leapfrog both Brest and Nice in first and second respectively as those two teams played out a stalemate over at the Allianz Riviera.

Reims meanwhile continued their assault on the Champions League spots at the top of the table with a comprehensive 2-0 win against a struggling Lyon side at home, one of only two teams yet to register a single win on the season so far.

It’s been an incredible turnaround for this Reims side also, a team that finished in the lower half of the table in both of the preceding seasons, and who, under young Belgian/English manager Will Still, have continued to look highly impressive this year.

Only Nice and Marseille have allowed fewer goals at home this season than Reims currently have, with the north-eastern club also ranking top three in the league in both goals allowed from open play at home, and home defensive xGA as well.

Both teams carry potent offenses into this one, ranking 1st and 3rd respectively in offensive scoring this year, but Reims’ overall sturdier defense should carry them through in this one, and we like the value on the home side to grind out a result on the alternative handicap line of +0.25 against Monaco this weekend.

French Ligue Prediction 2: Reims +0.25 (-160)

 

Lens vs Lille | October 8 | 9:00am ET

Lens +120 | Lille +230 | Draw +250

Both Lens and Lille have suffered an opening to their respective league campaigns they’d possibly rather forget this season, but Sunday’s matchup over at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis presents a huge opportunity for both teams to change that trajectory, with a big win against a high-level domestic opponent likely being the tonic needed in order to push themselves further up the table and into the mix at the top of the standings.

Last season’s runners-up Lens have especially been hit hard early this year, generating just two wins in the league all season, although thankfully for them, both of those came over their last two starts.

Like Lens, Lille have similarly failed to impress this year, failing to put together back-to-back victories all season, and being wildly inconsistent as a result, amassing just one win across their last three league starts.

However, we don’t expect that to be the norm for either team moving forward as Lille were absolutely phenomenal last year in terms of raw data, ranking #1 in the league in both expected points, defensive xGA, and #2 in offensive xG as well, behind only perennial champions PSG, and that form is likely to translate into success for them at some point this season.

Lens also had a phenomenal year last season, finishing in the #2 spot behind PSG, and after a slow start to the campaign this year, seem to have finally found their form again, putting together three straight wins across all competitions, one of which came against Arsenal in midweek in the Champions League.

Lille faces a trip to the Faroe Islands on Thursday evening to take on Europa Conference League side Klaksvik, so Lens will have the advantage in terms of rest ahead of this one. That said, Lille does have the option of resting players ahead of that game, something Lens couldn’t do against Arsenal, so the advantage for Lens will likely be negated.

Overall, given how solid both teams are metrically, we see this one being an incredibly close game this weekend, and one that could well end up in a draw as a result.

French Ligue Prediction 3: Draw (+247)

 

Stoppage Time | Weekly Soccer Preview

Join Carmine Bianco, Kevin Dolan, Nick Borrman, Bryan Power and Pavlos Laguretos for Stoppage Time every Tuesday and Thursday breaking down betting angles across the European soccer schedule including possibly matches in French Ligue 1!

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WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the French Ligue 1 moneylines, run lines and betting percentages for all scheduled games.

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