German Bundesliga Weekend Predictions, Picks and Odds for May 20-21

German Bundesliga Match Betting Preview for May 20-21

WagerTalk German Bundesliga handicapper Nick Borrman presents his May 20-21 German Bundesliga match predictions including Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin and Schalke vs Eintracht Frankfurt. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his German Bundesliga betting preview now!

Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin | Saturday 5/20 | 9:30am ET

Hoffenheim +150 | Draw +230 | Union Berlin +170
Asian Handicap: Pick’em | Total: 2.5

Very easy to look at the table and think, “why wouldn’t I bet Union Berlin at a pick’em price?” Well, I’m here to tell you why not.

Union Berlin are one of the biggest frauds in Europe. They are #1 across all Big-5 European leagues in overperformance this season. They have scored 48 goals on just 32.6 xG this season and allowed 34 goals on 39.5 xGA.

Those combined have led to an over performance of 19.1 more points than expected, earning 59 points in the table compared to 39.8 xP which ranks 13th in the table and more indicative of who this team really is.

The first note I encourage you to make is to look at next season’s futures and look to fade Union Berlin any chance you get. They will be priced based on their actual results and could provide great value to fade. But I digress…

Meanwhile, Hoffenheim sit 14th in the table and just two points clear of Schalke as they battle against relegation with only two matches remaining. Their points at the bottom are much more important than Union Berlin’s at top who still sit three points clear of Freiburg and hold the tiebreaker.

Hoffenheim are only 6-2-8 this season at home, but they have won three of their last four vs Frankfurt, Schalke and Hertha Berlin. They own a respectable +0.26 xG differential per 90 minutes at home compared to Union Berlin at -0.52 away.

I’m not comfortable enough though to back Hoffenheim on the moneyline, but with the safety of a draw being graded as a void/push, I’ll back the home side to get a result here.

Prediction: Hoffenheim +0 (DRAW NO BET) -120

Schalke vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Saturday 5/20 | 9:30am ET

Schalke +180 | Draw +270 | Frankfurt +125
Asian Handicap: Frankfurt -0.25 | Total: 3.0

I suggested taking Schalke last week vs Bayern and that turned out to be a terrible choice as they were smoked 6-0 by the 10-time defending champions. However, at home vs a team that is clearly not Bayern, I like their chances even better.

Schalke are fighting for their lives against relegation as they currently sit 16th in the table and in the relegation playoff position which would pit them against the 3rd best team in the Bundesliga 2. But they can avoid having to deal with that by catching Bochum, Hoffenheim or Augsburg who sit 1, 2 and 4 points above, respectively.

Schalke at home have the 2nd worst point haul in the league with just 19 on a 5-4-7 record, but that is still more wins + draws than losses.

Their xG differential is right in line with those results at -0.39 per 90 minutes. However, they are often in the underdog role and thus have been solid against the spread going 10-6 at home and 19-13 overall.

While their home numbers are certainly lacking, they are nearly identical to Frankfurt on the road. The Europa League holders are just 4-5-7 with a -11 goal differential away from Deutsche Bank Park this season with a -0.38 xG differential. I know Schalke are not good, but why do I want to back a team as a favorite with just four away wins?

Frankfurt still do have something to play for as they sit three points back of Wolfsburg and Leverkusen for a possible Europa Conference qualification for next season, but they would need a lot of things to go their way to surpass both teams. Additionally, Frankfurt are 5-9-2 ATS on the road, however, only once have they covered as a road favorite.

I like Schalke’s chances to get a result from the match, so I’ll grab the head start.

Prediction: Schalke +0.25 -120

Augsburg vs Dortmund | Sunday 5/21 | 11:30am ET

Augsburg +500 | Draw +450 | Dortmund -285
Asian Handicap: Dortmund -1.5 | Total: 3.5

I love to ride the Dortmund train anytime they are home, but when they are away, they simply aren’t the same team.

In fact, they are winless in their last six away matches, and while some of their opponents include Bayern, a Cup match vs Leipzig and a Champions League match vs Chelsea, they also failed to beat Bochum, Stuttgart and Schalke, settling for draws in all three. Laying -1.5 seems like much too big of a number here.

Augsburg have been steady at home all season, but even better of late. They own a 6-4-6 record on the Bundesliga season but have just one loss in eight matches since the WC break including wins vs Leverkusen and Union Berlin. Their one loss did come by two goals vs Koln, however.

xG doesn’t show great numbers for Augsburg at home as they have a -0.40 xG differential per 90 minutes, but Dortmund on the road is not the dominant team they are at home, averaging just a +0.20 xG differential and have won by more than one goal just three times all season.

Augsburg has also given Dortmund fits over the years. They don’t win often, but they keep it close. In the last 13 meetings overall, Dortmund have won by two goals or more just three times including just once over the last three seasons. Augsburg has also covered this number in five of the last six meetings at home.

Augsburg are four points clear of the relegation zone, so they still have plenty to fight for in this match while Dortmund of course trail Bayern by just one point in the title race.

However, Dortmund just needs to win and if they lead by just one goal late, they will not be pushing for anything additional, rather just trying to see the match out to get their three points.

Prediction: Augsburg +1.5 -125