Germany vs Italy Prediction and Betting Odds | UEFA Nations League June 14
Germany vs Italy Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Kevin Dolan shares his thoughts on Tuesday’s Germany vs Italy clash in the UEFA Nations League. These two teams played to a 1-1 draw ten days ago in Bologna.
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| Tuesday, June 14 | UEFA Nations League Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Germany: | -140 |
| Italy: | +370 |
| Draw: | +285 |
| Total: | 2.5 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 2:45pm ET / 11:45am PT |
Germany vs Italy Analysis
With just three points separating all four teams in Group A3, Germany knows a win here at home on Tuesday will drastically alter their positioning as they currently sit third in the group with zero wins and just three total points.
Italy has semi-struggled since last summer’s heroics, edging out Hungary 2-1 in Cesana last week which remains their only win of the group so far.
These two teams played in the opening game of the group just ten days ago over in Bologna with Italy opening the scoring through a well worked Lorenzo Pellegrini goal before Joshua Kimmich equalized for the Germans just three minutes later with a blazing low shot just inside the left corner post to finish 1-1.
Italy’s Dismal Road Form
Despite currently sitting top of the group with the most points and tied for the most goals over this campaign so far, Italy’s drop-off in road form this year has been stark.
Italy has averaged the most goals and most shots out of any team in the group at home this year, but away from home it’s been a much different story with Italy being the only team with zero goals and the group’s lowest shot count overall as well.
Along with this Italy’s xG numbers drop off from home to road this campaign has been huge, going from 1.24 xG (13th) at home to 0.08 xG (45th) on the road, but with just one game played away from home so far in this group, it’s much too early to say whether this will continue to be a factor for Italy moving forward in the Nations League.
Germany Not Converting Possession Into Attack
Despite leading the group in overall possession and pass accuracy so far this year, the Germans have looked stunted in attack for the most part with the groups lowest overall shots per game rating and the lowest xG as well.
At home it gets even worse for the Germans however with their xG dipping from an already group-low 0.75 xG per game to just 0.54 xG at home in that sole draw against England last week.
As with Italy above however, being only a small one game sample size at home over this group so far, it’ll be interesting to see if Germany can turn things around here on home soil against the Italians on Tuesday.
Germany vs Italy Prediction
Germany just hasn’t looked anywhere near clinical enough over this campaign so far to warrant getting Italy at +0.75 in my opinion and that’s the way we’re going to look in this one on Tuesday.
While Italy’s road form has been less than impressive over this Nations League campaign so far, they nevertheless remain an incredibly hard team to beat in any capacity, going 17-straight games now unbeaten on the road going all the way back to September 2018 and have won 13 of those outright.
We’re taking Italy +0.75 on Tuesday against Germany over in Nations League Group A3.
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Meet the Author
‘The sharpest sports mind in Ireland’ is how one prominent newspaper dubbed Kevin Dolan after he became the first foreigner ever to win the World Series of Handicapping tournament back in 2015. “The Irishman” made his start wagering on GAA, football, soccer and boxing, all to immense success. Since becoming a professional bettor, he has since lit up the sports betting scene in the U.S. and abroad, winning two handicapping awards and writing a best-selling book on sports handicapping named ‘The Complete Guide to Sports Betting’.
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