Houston Dynamo vs Austin FC Prediction and Betting Odds | MLS April 30
Houston Dynamo vs Austin FC Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his Houston Dynamo vs Austin FC betting preview for Saturday, April 30. After finishing 12th in the Western Conference in their inaugural season, Austin is off to a red-hot start in 2022.
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| Saturday, April 30 | MLS Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo: | +130 |
| Austin FC: | +205 |
| Draw: | +260 |
| Total: | 2.5 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 1:30pm ET / 10:30am PT |
Houston Dynamo vs Austin FC Analysis
Austin is catching the league by storm as they sit second in the West behind only LAFC with a 5-2-1 record and 20:7 goal differential. They have won three straight matches over a very good Minnesota side, DC United and Vancouver. They started the season with two huge blowout wins over Cincinnati and Inter Miami, two of the worst teams in the league from last season, although Cincinnati has been much improved so far this season.
Austin currently has a +0.49 xG (expected goal) differential per game averaging the fifth-most xG at 1.83, and they have generated more xG in six of their eight matches this season.
In terms of shot volume, they are allowing 3.8 shots on goal per game, but they allowed a whopping 11 shots on goal in one match vs San Jose. If you throw out that game, they have only allowed just 2.7 shots on goal which would rank as the third-fewest in the league.
Don’t Trust Houston’s Record
Houston has a decent record as well at 3-3-2 with a 11:9 goal differential, but they haven’t really proven themselves yet as their three wins have all come against bad teams Miami, San Jose and Vancouver. The best of that bunch is Miami who has just a -0.31 xG differential so far this year. Against the better teams they have faced – Dallas, Salt Lake, Kansas City, Colorado and Portland – they are winless with three draws and two losses.
Looking at xG, Houston has a -0.19 differential per game this season, generating just 1.25 xG which is the seventh-fewest in the league. If we look at their five games against quality opposition, their xG numbers drop to 0.78 per game and their differential falls to -0.58. In terms of shot volume, they allow the fifth-most shots per game at 14.5.
Houston Dynamo vs Austin FC Prediction
Every season, Houston is always much better at home than on the road and this season is no different as they are unbeaten in five matches, but they have settled for three draws which obviously cashes this ticket. I don’t trust their ability to beat good teams as Austin is slowly proving to be, so I’ll gladly grab the head start on Austin +0.25 (-115).
Soccer Betting 101
New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.
WagerTalk Soccer Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, goal spreads and totals for all of this weekend’s MLS games, including this Houston Dynamo vs Austin FC showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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