Inter Milan vs AC Milan Predictions and Odds Feb 5
Milan Derby Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Saturday’s Inter Milan vs AC Milan showdown in Serie A. After a two-week international break, the Italian league action resumes this weekend with one of Serie A’s best rivalries.
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| Saturday, February 5 | Serie A Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Inter Milan: | -125 |
| AC Milan: | +330 |
| Draw: | +425 |
| Total: | 2.75 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 12:00pm ET / 9:00am PT |
Inter Milan vs AC Milan Analysis
Inter is having a fantastic year, currently leading Serie A by four points with a game in hand at just past the halfway point of the season. They are also through to the knockout rounds of the Champions League which picks up in February and having a buffer in Serie A is important as they navigate both competitions.
In league play, Inter have just one loss on the season with a 16-5-1 record and sparkling 53:17 goal differential. They lead the league in goals scored and are No. 2 in goals allowed, one behind Napoli.
In terms of expected goals (xG), they lead the league by a significant margin, averaging 2.33 xG per game with the next closest team, Atalanta, at 1.79. That ranks 4th out of the 98 teams in the Big 5 European Leagues behind only Bayern Munich, Manchester City and Liverpool. They also lead the league in shot volume, averaging 17.4 shots per game with 6.7 on goal, compared to the league average of 12.9 and 4.5, respectively.
Many expected a dip for Inter this season with the departure of Romelu Lukaku to Chelsea, but they have actually performed better thus far with a +1.39 xG differential per game compared to last year’s +0.99 mark.
AC Milan is Fading
It’s been a tale of two seasons for AC Milan who shot out of the gates to start the season, unbeaten in their first 11 Serie A games with ten wins and a draw to sit atop the table at the end of October. They did however, struggle in the Champions League, losing each of their first three games.
Since then, as they put all their eggs in the UCL basket to try and qualify, which they went 1-1-1 over their final three group stage games to still finish last, their form in Serie A has slipped with four losses and two draws over their last 11 games. While that doesn’t sound terrible, they have only been able to beat the bottom-half of the table teams and even dropped points against Sassuolo, Udinese and most recently, Spezia. Those are not results we should see from an elite team.
Inter Milan vs AC Milan Prediction
In the reverse fixture back in November, these teams played to a 1-1 draw, but the game was controlled by Inter who actually did all of the scoring as AC Milan’s goal was an own goal. Inter’s leading scorer, Lautaro Martinez also missed a penalty kick and at the end of the game, xG showed a more lopsided score of Inter 2.35 – 1.16 AC Milan.
Now, in this 230th edition of the Derby della Madonnina, I fully expect Inter Milan to continue their recent dominance of the H2H series as they have won six of the last eight meetings with just one draw and one loss. Over their last 20 games in all competitions, they have 16 wins to go along with three draws and just one loss which came against Real Madrid in the Champions League. Compare that to AC Milan who have just six wins from their last 16 games since the calendar turned to November.
TAKE INTER MILAN -125
Interested in placing a bet on Saturday’s Inter Milan vs AC Milan showdown in Serie A? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 match bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.
Inter Milan vs AC Milan Video Preview
Inter has only lost one out of their 22 league matches so far this season, boasting a 53-17 goal differential. In the last eight meetings between these Italian rivals, Inter has six wins compared to AC Milan’s lone victory, plus one draw. WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Saturday’s Inter Milan vs AC Milan showdown.
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features odds from a variety of domestic and offshore sports books. Track the moneylines and totals for all of this weekend’s Serie A matches, including this Inter Milan vs AC Milan clash, from your desktop or phone.
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