Juventus vs Napoli Picks, Predictions and Odds Jan 6
Juventus vs Napoli Betting Preview
WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Thursday’s Juventus vs Napoli showdown in Serie A. The race to catch Inter Milan at the top of Italy’s table is officially on, and one of these two teams could take a big step toward closing that gap with a win on Thursday.
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| Thursday, Jan 6 | Serie A Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Juventus: | -110 |
| Napoli: | +320 |
| Draw: | +250 |
| Total: | 2.5 Goals |
| Game Time: | 2:45pm ET / 11:45am PT at Allianz Stadium |
Juventus at a Glance
Juventus had a rough start to the season, winless in their first four Serie A games including a 1-2 loss at Napoli back in September, but they have righted the ship and climbed the table up to 5th, just four points back of Atalanta for the last Champions League spot.
They had won five of their last six games, including a Champions League game vs Malmo, before the winter break and by scores we have grown accustomed to seeing from Juve over the years, which are a lot of 2-0 wins. The concern I have with them however, is their lack of performances against the top teams.
Juve has been racking up their points against the weak sides, as they should (although they did slip up a few times, losing to Verona, Sassuolo and Empoli this season), but they have yet to deliver a big-time quality win in league play.
Their marquee result of the year was a 1-0 home win over Chelsea in the group stage of the Champions League, however they were then blown out 0-4 on the road in the reverse fixture. But, in Serie A against the Top-4 teams, they have yet to earn a win with draws against both Milans, a loss to Atalanta and the aforementioned loss to Napoli. They did beat each of the ‘2nd tier’ teams in Lazio and Roma though.
Napoli’s Leading Defense
The story for Napoli this season has been a little more of the opposite. They started off the season red hot, winning ten of their first 11 games and sat on top of the Serie A table along with AC Milan. Since then, however, they have just two wins in their last eight games to go along with two draws and four losses, as they seem to have been struggling with managing both Serie A and Europa League duties.
Their three straight home losses are inexcusable however, especially considering two of those games came against Empoli and Spezia.
Still, Napoli are the #1 defense in Serie A in both actual goals allowed, 14 through 19 games, and xGA (expected goals allowed), just 0.74, 2nd only to Manchester City across the Big 5 European Leagues.
In looking closer at those bad losses I mentioned versus Empoli and Spezia, they were the better team on the field. They generated over 1.0 xG more than each opponent and allowed just a single goal, but their offense let them down as they were unable to find the net in either game. I think the winter break will be a blessing for this team that was clearly in need of it.
Serie A by the Numbers
Juventus 34 pts | 10-4-5 | 27:17 goal differential
1.81 xG (#2) | 0.95 xGA (#2) | +0.85 xG differential (#2)
14.7 Shots for (#6) | 4.9 on Goal (T-#6)
9.6 Shots allowed (T-#2) | 2.9 on Goal (#1)
Napoli 39 pts | 12-3-4 | 35:14 goal differential
1.58 xG (#6) | 0.74 xGA (#1) | +0.84 xG differential (#3)
15.9 Shots for (T-#2) | 5.2 on Goal (T-#2)
10.4 Shots allowed (#5) | 3.3 on Goal (#3)
Clearly two of the best teams in the league with very similar numbers across the board. Napoli generate more shot volume per game, but Juventus’ produces better quality as evidenced by their higher xG, while the opposite is true defensively. Napoli allow a little more volume than Juventus does, but clearly the quality of chances is not as good with such a low xGA.
Juventus vs Napoli Series History
The concern I have here in taking Napoli is that the home team has gotten the better of this matchup, winning each of the last five league meetings. Also, in 15 league meetings since 2015, Juventus has the better record with nine wins, to go along with five wins by Napoli and oddly only one draw.
However, much of that came during Juventus’ run of nine straight Serie A titles when they were clearly the best team in the league. Those days are obviously now gone after Inter Milan dethroned them last year while this season they currently sit outside the Top-4 and a Champions League qualification for next season.
Juventus vs Napoli Prediction
I wrote an article on a similar matchup in December with Napoli on the road at AC Milan catching +0.25 goals in a game they ended up winning 1-0. I liked the head start on what I expected to be a tight, hard-fought game, and this time, we are getting the full half-goal (+0.5) start, meaning we cash a full ticket on a win or a draw.
Bottom line is I don’t trust Juventus in the big game situation right now as they have yet to really prove themselves in league play and knowing Napoli only need a draw, I think we are looking at some pretty good value in taking the + goals at an even money price.
TAKE NAPOLI +0.5 (+100)
Enjoy the return of Serie A from the winter break with all 20 teams in action on Thursday! I am the No. 1 handicapper of Serie A this season with a record of 28-14 (67%) for +50.25% bankroll gain!
Interested in placing a bet on Thursday’s Juventus vs Napoli contest? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
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