Juventus vs Villarreal Prediction and Betting Odds | Champions League 3/16/22

Juventus vs Villarreal Betting Preview

WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his Juventus vs Villarreal betting preview for Wednesday, March 16 in the UEFA Champions League. There teams enter Wednesday’s second leg tied after playing to a 1-1 draw in Spain last month.

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Wednesday, March 16	UEFA Champions League Betting Notes
Juventus:	-105
Villarreal:	+310
Draw:	+255
Total:	2.25 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings)
Game Time:	4:00pm ET / 1:00pm PT

Juventus vs Villarreal Analysis

Juventus got off to such a poor start in Serie A this season going winless in their first three games while both Napoli and AC Milan were red hot, unbeaten in each of their first ten games to open the season.

Juve was in an unfamiliar position, well outside of the top-4 and looking like Champions League football for next season was going to be hard to achieve. But it was early, and Juve certainly didn’t panic and all they have done now is go unbeaten in their last 21 games in 90’ minutes of regulation in all competitions.

I say that as they did technically have one loss in the Super Cup vs Inter Milan, but that came in extra time so as far as standard wagering, they haven’t lost a game since November 27.

It’s been vintage Juve during their run as their defense has been very good, holding opponents to one goal or less in 19 of those 21 games while keeping ten clean sheets. They of course played to a 1-1 draw in Leg 1 in Spain while holding Villarreal to just nine total shots in the game.

Juventus won a lot of their games during their nine-year run as Champions of Serie A by winning games 1-0 or 2-0. This year they have returned to that formula and have allowed just 26 goals through 29 Serie A matches, third-fewest in the league, while scoring only 45, easily the fewest of the top teams and ranking 10th in the league.

Because of that, they have a league-low 9-20 O-U record (vs 2.5 goals) and a crazy low 2-12 O-U record at home.

Villarreal Unimpressive Away from Home

Villarreal is a top-4 side in La Liga when looking at xG numbers on the season, averaging 1.96 xG while allowing just 1.20 xGA. However, they currently sit seventh in the table and outside of any European qualification for next season, mostly because they cannot win on the road.

In La Liga, they have just three wins in 13 games this season away from home and it’s not because their defense has been poor, but rather because of an inept offense.

Villarreal has allowed just 12 goals on the road this season, which is tied for the second-fewest in the league with Real Madrid (trailing only Sevilla), however they have netted only 13 times which ranks 15th and as such, have just a 4-9 O-U record.

Villarreal were arguably even better than Juventus defensively in that first leg, allowing just seven total shots and only 0.37 xGA.

Juventus vs Villarreal Prediction

There is very little reason to think the second leg will play out any differently than the first one three weeks ago. Both teams will take a very cautious approach to this game as chances have already proven hard to come by and falling behind by a goal could be enough to send either one home.

Juventus haven’t allowed more than one goal at home in their last 12 games in all competitions, keeping seven clean sheets with only two games finishing over 2.5 goals.

I think we see yet another vintage Juventus defensive performance with this game staying under 2.5 Goals (-130). For those that like to bet Correct Scores, another 1-1 finish seems in the cards here currently going at +575.

Interested in placing a bet on Wednesday’s Juventus vs Villarreal clash in the UEFA Champions League? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 match bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.

Soccer Betting 101

New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.

WagerTalk Soccer Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, goal spreads and totals for all of this week’s UEFA Champions League games, including this Juventus vs Villarreal showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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Meet the Author

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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