La Liga Predictions, Picks and Best Bets January 26-28

Predictions and Picks for La Liga Matches January 26-28

WagerTalk La Liga handicapper Kevin Dolan presents his January 26-28 La Liga predictions and betting preview around key La Liga matches including Alaves at Almeria and Real Madrid at Las Palmas. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his La Liga betting tips now!

Alaves at Almeria | Friday January 26 | 3:00pm ET

Alaves +180 | Almeria +160 | Draw +225

Bottom of the table Almeria hosts mid-table Alaves on Friday night over at the Power Horse Stadium (energy drink), looking to somehow climb themselves off the bottom rung of the ladder heading into the latter portion of the season.

That may be easier said than done however as Almeria remains the only team in LaLiga this season still on a single-digit points tally, as well as ranking last in goals conceded and goal differential also.

For Alaves, they endured a mini five-game winless run throughout December, but seem to have snapped out of it recording back-to-back victories in their last two league games against Sevilla and Cadiz respectively.

However, Almeria hasn’t been anywhere near as bad as their overall record suggests this season, ranking top half in the league in offensive xG and boasting a positive expected goals differential per 90 minutes also at home this season.

That hasn’t been the case for Alaves on the road however who have produced over an expected goal less per game this season away from home than they have done at home.

The books have priced Almeria as marginal favorites for this one despite their terrible record, and we’re in full agreement here as the underlying numbers suggest there’s some value in taking the home side on Friday.

La Liga Prediction: Almeria PK (-115)

Real Madrid at Las Palmas | Saturday January 27 | 10:15am ET

Real Madrid -220 | Las Palmas +610 | Draw +370

Real Madrid can go top of the table on Saturday, if only for a day, if they get the victory over Las Palmas this weekend, something they’ve done in each of their three previous encounters against Los Amarillos.

However, that form hasn’t extended down to the tropics of Gran Canaria where Real Madrid holds a decidedly more average 2-1-1 record against the islanders across each of their last four meetings.

Gran Canaria is no doubt a tough place to visit, with Las Palmas losing just two games here all season, one of them coming against Barcelona at the start of January with the Catalans needing an incredibly late 93rd-minute penalty from former Manchester City star Ilkay Gundogan to get over the line.

Saturday’s game should be no different, and despite Real Madrid’s impressive form in the league of late, Las Palmas definitely has the ability to make life difficult for Los Blancos on their home patch this weekend.

Both of those losses for Las Palmas this season came by the minimum of one goal, and that could very well be the outcome on Saturday also with Las Palmas playing the Spanish giants tough before succumbing to a late Real Madrid winner.

La Liga Prediction: Real Madrid to Win by 1 Goal (+215)

Valencia at Atletico Madrid | Sunday January 28 | 3:00pm ET

Valencia +545 | Real Betis -195 | Draw +335

Atletico Madrid and Valencia clash on Sunday over at the Metropolitano with Atletico badly needing to kick their season back into gear after a recent run of just two wins from their last five league games overall.

A 4-3 shootout loss against Girona, with the Gironistes getting a last-minute winner in, really set Atletico behind the curve in terms of the title race as the Colchoneros now sit a full eleven points off Girona at the top of the table with a game in hand.

For Valencia, they’ve had a much better season this year than they endured last year, with Los Ches now occupying 7th spot in the table after four straight wins in league action heading into this weekend’s clash.

The bad news for Valencia however is that they’ve come up short in all of their last three visits to the Metropolitano, including suffering a 3-0 drubbing the last time they came here back in March of last year.

However, Valencia are a much-improved team from that struggling version of themselves last year and sit level with Atletico in defensive xGA this season which highlights just how much they’ve improved since 2022/23.

Atletico Madrid haven’t been in the best form of late heading into this one, and Valencia could well get something from Sunday’s matchup as a result given how well they’re playing right now, so let’s take a shot with the outright draw to land this weekend over in the Spanish capital.

La Liga Prediction: Draw (+335)