La Liga Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview January 2-4

Betting Preview for La Liga Matches January 2-4

WagerTalk La Liga handicapper Kevin Dolan presents his January 2-4 La Liga predictions and betting preview around key La Liga matches including Atletico Madrid at Girona and Barcelona at Las Palmas. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read his La Liga betting tips now!

Villarreal at Valencia | Tuesday January 2 | 3:30pm ET

Villarreal +200 | Valencia +130 | Draw +250

Two teams in some incredibly uneven form clash on Tuesday night over at the Mestalla as struggling Villarreal come to town to take on Valencia in the historic Derbi de la Comunitat with only 35km separating the two rivals.

With the African Cup of Nations about to start, many teams across Europe will find themselves with depleted rosters across the coming weeks, with Valencia being no exception, as they are currently trying to negotiate with Morrocco and their midfielder Selim Amallah in regards to the recent World Cup semi-finalist being potentially ready for this game, and missing Morrocco’s initial training camp as a result.

Villarreal meanwhile are gearing up for what’s sure to be a hectic transfer window, especially defensively, where they’re severely depleted in terms of quality players at the back right now, owning the league’s third-worst goals-allowed record and seeing AC Milan’s Matteo Gabbia return on loan also.

That defensive frailty is something that needs to be made a priority in the January transfer window, especially with the Yellow Submarine competing in both LaLiga and Europa League across the back half of the season.

However, that won’t solve their issues in time for this particular game, and with Villarreal not only owning one of the league’s worst defenses this season, but also an offense that ranks fifth from bottom away from home in offensive xG as well, we’re siding with the home team Valencia in this one to get the win and cover on Tuesday.

La Liga Prediction: Valencia -0.25 (+100)

Atletico Madrid at Girona | Wednesday January 3 | 3:30pm ET

Atletico Madrid +165 | Girona +155 | Draw +260

Top three clash over in Spain on Wednesday night as Europe’s surprise packages, Girona, host Atletico Madrid in midweek looking to notch their fifth win at home in their last six league games.

However, that may be easier said than done as Atletico have won each of the last three head-to-heads between the two teams, but arguably come into this game at just the right time for Girona to overturn that, posting three straight losses on the road for the first time all season.

In terms of data, Atletico have struggled massively away from home all year, averaging a huge 1.04 xGD/90 dropoff from their performances inside the Metropolitano this season, one of the biggest gulfs in the entire league.

Girona meanwhile have been vastly outperforming their data this season, and it would be a surprise to see them continue their red-hot start into a potential title challenge in the second half of the season, yet the fact remains they’ve been incredibly strong at home this year, with their only loss coming against league leaders Real Madrid, and should pose another significant threat to Atletico Madrid on Wednesday also.

No team has scored more goals from open play this season than Girona have, and that level of creativity in front of goals should see them get over the line once again in midweek against a struggling Atletico Madrid side at home on Wednesday.

La Liga Prediction: Girona +0 [PK] (-110)

Barcelona at Las Palmas | Thursday January 4 | 3:30pm ET

Barcelona -180 | Las Palmas +475 | Draw +335

Gran Canaria continues to be one of the hardest places to go to for teams in the league this season, with Los Amarillos losing just once on the southern island all year, and taking some notable scalps along the way, none more so than the aforementioned Atletico Madrid back at the start of November.

That said, apart from Atletico who have been in some really poor form away from home this season, plus a draw against Real Sociedad back in August, Las Palmas’ schedule really hasn’t been all that daunting at home, something that will quickly rectify here on Thursday against one of Europe’s elite teams in Barcelona.

Barcelona haven’t looked like the defensive juggernaut that lifted the LaLiga title at a canter last season, but they are starting to put results together and remain one of only two teams in the league yet to lose a game away from home this season.

In terms of the underlying data, Barcelona own by far and away the best road metrics in the league this season, with their defensive xGA and expected goals differential frankly dwarfing every other team in LaLiga right now, and that dominance should pay off for the Catalan giants sooner rather than later.

Despite their impressive overall results at home this season, Las Palmas’ numbers really haven’t been all that good, sitting last in shots per game at home this year, and second from bottom in offensive xG also, and they could really run into a brick wall here on Thursday against a defense as robust as Barcelona’s is.

Take Barcelona to win and cover on the -0.75 handicap line on Wednesday in their LaLiga matchup against Las Palmas.

La Liga Prediction: Barcelona -0.75 (-140)