Leagues Cup Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview – Round Two Best Bets 7/25 – 7/27

Leagues Cup Betting Advice

WagerTalk MLS handicapper Nick Borrman presents his Leagues Cup predictions and picks around key round two matches including Inter Miami vs Atlanta United and New York City FC vs Toronto FC.

Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goal scoring? Read Nick’s betting preview now!

Leagues Cup Expert Predictions

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United | 7/25/23 | 7:30pm ET

Miami +120 | Draw +260 | Atlanta +200
Asian Handicap: Miami -0.25 | Total: 2.75

You couldn’t have scripted a better first match for Lionel Messi and Inter Miami. The GOAT scores a last second free kick winner to beat Cruz Azul as the entire world watched. I was on the losing end of that kick as I suggested taking +0.25 on the Liga MX side which I still standby as the right play. It was evident all game, even in the second half as Messi and company came onto the field, that Miami’s defense stinks and cannot be asked to keep a team off the scoresheet. However, after watching that second half, I was very surprised at how quickly Miami adapted to Messi on the field.

Let me explain a little further. Busquets was incredible in his debut. Messi will get all the credit of course, but Sergio Busquets controlled that midfield and fed Messi ball after ball in both open and tight spaces with ease, with creativity and several times caught Cruz Azul completely off guard. Josef Martinez was impressive in quickly figuring out how to play off of Messi and that is my big take away from that match. If those three are on the field from the opening kickoff, three goals or more seems very likely. The question though, is when will they take the field?

This will be Atlanta’s first match but there is no doubt they watched Miami vs Cruz Azul. Then watched it again, and again, and again, trying to figure out how best to setup to contain the new-look Miami offense. The problem is, even if they have a gameplan, I do not trust them to execute.

Atlanta has kept six clean sheets in 24 matches this season, which isn’t terrible, but conceding 39 goals, the 2nd most in the MLS, is awful. Away from home is even worse as they allow an average of 2.0 goals per away match including conceding at least two goals in seven of 12.

Now as they face what could become the most creative and dangerous offense in the league, even if it’s not for a full 90 minutes, I don’t believe they will be able to contain Messi’s Miami.

Prediction: Miami Team Total OVER 1.5 Goals -110 DraftKings

New York City FC vs Toronto FC | 7/26/23 | 7:30pm ET

New York City -135 | Draw +290 | Toronto +340
Asian Handicap: New York City -0.75 | Total: 2.5

I faded NYCFC vs Atlas in their first match which turned out exactly as I thought. Another match where New York struggled with creating chances as they were banked in a 0-1 loss. Including Sunday night’s loss, New York City has scored one goal or fewer in 13 of their last 14 matches which a 2-goal performance vs Atlanta the only time in which they netted more than one goal.

Away from home, NYCFC has scored 11 goals in 14 matches and has averaged only 0.91 xG per match. This game is being played in New Jersey at the Red Bull Stadium, not at Yankee Stadium or Citi Field, where NYCFC normally play their home matches. While the fan support is likely to be on the side of New York City, this will not feel like a home match for them.

The good news for New York is that they are facing maybe the only team in the MLS that is struggling more than they are to find the net. Toronto have been absolutely lifeless offensively all season, but especially of late.

Toronto is currently on a six-match losing streak and has been blanked in each of their last four matches. Over their last 15 matches, Toronto has managed to score just six goals as they have been held scoreless a whopping ten times, scoring more than one goal on just one occurrence.

Defensively though, Toronto has been respectable. Even though they have conceded 20 goals in those same 15 matches, seven of them came in two matches vs Orlando and Cincinnati. On the season, TFC has allowed more than one goal just nine times in 24 matches.

NYCFC is out for revenge as Toronto won 1-0 in their only MLS meeting this season. But with both offenses struggling mightily right now, if they do find a way to win, it’s likely going to come in a low-scoring match.

Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals -105 DraftKings

FC Cincinnati vs Guadalajara Chivas | 7/27/23 | 8:00pm ET

Cincinnati +100 | Draw +245 | Guadalajara +260
Asian Handicap: Cincinnati -0.5 | Total: 2.5

Cincinnati quickly fell into a 0-2 hole vs Kansas City in their opening match and if it wasn’t for that first half red card by SKC, I’m not sure Cincinnati would have been able to dig out of that hole. Now as they switch gears to face one of the top teams in Liga MX, they cannot afford a slow start.

Cincinnati has been great at home this year. Unbeaten in 11 matches with ten wins and just one draw, outscoring their opponents 24-8. Obviously very good, but they are outperforming their xG metrics which show a closer 19.6-10.4 differential. Facing Guadalajara, one of the better away teams in Liga MX, I’m not so sure those numbers will continue.

Chivas going back to the beginning of the Clausura season in the spring, have just two away losses in their last 13 matches which includes the playoffs and one match so far this season. Get a list of the teams they beat on the road: Leon, America, Leon again, Tigres and Monterrey. Those are the best teams in the league and all far better than what the MLS has to offer. If they can get beat those teams, I have zero doubt that they can get a result vs Cincinnati on Thursday.

Chivas have three wins from three matches already this season in the Apertura and last year ended with a +6.3 xG differential in a much tougher league top-to-bottom. Going back to the beginning of April, they have lost just twice in 14 matches as they have held their opponents to one goal or less in 13 of those 14 games.

Chivas rarely get held of the scoreboard, just three times in the last 24 matches and with their defense playing as well as it is now, scoring just one here could very well be enough to at least earn a regulation draw.

Prediction: Guadalajara Chivas +0.5 (Double Chance) -130 DraftKings