Manchester City vs Leicester Picks and Odds Dec 26

Manchester City vs Leicester Betting Preview

WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Sunday’s Manchester City vs Leicester showdown on Boxing Day in the Premier League. Manchester City defeated Newcastle and Leeds by a combined 11-0 score line in its previous two matches. Can the Foxes provide any resistance?

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Sun, Dec 26	Premier League Betting Notes
Manchester City:	-525
Leicester City:	+1200
Draw:	+675
Total:	2.5 Goals
Game Time:	10am ET / 7am PT on Boxing Day

Manchester City vs Leicester Analysis

Manchester City has solidified its spot atop the Premier League table by three points over Liverpool and own a sparkling 44:9 goal differential through 18 games. Man City also easily won their Champions League group over PSG, RB Leipzig and Club Brugge, enough so that they had already clinched before their sixth and final group stage game, which happened to be a loss at RB Leipzig. That loss, a game that didn’t mean anything, is their only loss in their last 11 games, winning each of their other ten.

Leicester last played on December 12 as they had their previous two matches against Tottenham and Everton postponed due to COVID-19. However, they did play on Wednesday, losing vs Liverpool in extra time and I think that will be a big factor for this match.

That game was a quarterfinal meeting in the Carabao Cup (EFL) and was a nice chance for Leicester to earn some hardware. There is little doubt that game took quite a bit out of them, especially considering they were up 2-0 and then had to play extra time just in time for a short turnaround to play Man City. Talk about a rough four days.

Leicester have not been in good form however, as they have just three wins in their last ten games. They have clearly struggled to manage their squad playing in both the Premier League and Europa League this season. Unlike Man City, they needed a result in match day six against Napoli to earn their qualification which they failed to get, losing 2-3 in Italy to finish 3rd in the group and fall into the Europa Conference League.

Premier League by the Numbers

Man City 44 pts | 14-2-2 | 44:9 goal differential
2.47 xG (#2) | 0.56 xGA (#1) | +1.91 xG differential (#1)
19.3 Shots for (#1) | 7.2 on Goal (#1)
6.3 Shots allowed (#1) | 2.1 on Goal (#1)

Leicester 22 pts | 6-4-6 | 27:27 goal differential
1.36 xG (#9) | 1.59 xGA (#13) | -0.23 xG differential (#11)
11.8 Shots for (#10) | 4.9 on Goal (#6)
15.4 Shots allowed (#17) | 5.1 on Goal (#16)

When we think of Man City, most people quickly jump to their offense prowess, and for good reason. They put up crooked score lines very often including winning 7-0 against Leeds just last week. But what most people forget, or fail to recognize, is that their defense is what sets them apart and a lot of that comes from their ability to possess the ball. City’s 0.56 xGA is not only the best in the EPL, it is #1 in all of the Big 5 European Leagues by quite a large margin, the next closest being Napoli in Serie A at 0.76. At home, that number gets even better at a measly 0.39 xGA. They also allow lead all of the Big 5 Leagues in sheer volume, averaging just 6.3 shots allowed and 2.1 on goal, which is even more impressive considering they are playing in the best league in the world.

Leicester meanwhile have been atrocious on defense this season. Last year they allowed just 1.24 xGA to earn their Europa League qualification, but this season that has increased quite a bit to 1.59. On the road, both their offensive and defensive xG numbers are worse at 1.05 xG and 1.66 xGA. They also rank in the bottom five in shot volume allowed which is scary when facing this Man City team.

Manchester City vs Leicester Series History

The one thing going against Man City is their poor track record against Leicester. They have failed to cover this number in any of the last eight H2H meetings, with three wins by Leicester, including in the opening game of the year, the Community Shield.

This will actually be the third meeting between these teams this season as Man City won the reverse fixture 1-0 at Leicester way back in the beginning of September. However, even though they won just 1-0, City dominated that game in almost every way. xG showed a 2.75 – 0.80 final score to go along with 25 shots and eight on goal for City, compared to just six shots with one on goal for Leicester.

Manchester City vs Leicester Prediction

Leicester have been hit pretty hard with COVID and even if they get back most of their guys for this game, they have not been playing/practicing. Additionally, their defense has clearly struggled this season with the extra European fixtures. Couple those points with their first game back against Liverpool in the quarterfinals of the Carabao Cup, and I think we could get a distracted and tired team which is especially worrisome on defense as they have proven they just aren’t the same team this year.

Unfortunately this is a big number, buy lay it and play Man City -2

Stoppage Time | Euro Soccer Preview

Let’s head to Europe! In this LIVE episode of Stoppage Time: Carmine Bianco, Nick Borrman and Pavlos Laguretos offer their thoughts on the marquee weekend games from Europe’s top leagues, including Inter Milan vs Torino; Sassuolo vs Bologna; Villarreal vs Alaves; and Sevilla vs Barcelona. Join the soccer betting experts from WagerTalk and Sportsmemo as they offer their Serie A and La Liga soccer picks and predictions.

Join Carmine, Nick and Pavlos for Stoppage Time as we discuss the marquee games across Spain and Italy, including Inter Milan vs Torino; Sassuolo vs Bologna; Villarreal vs Alaves; and Sevilla vs Barcelona. https://t.co/3dLsvtwQWQ

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) December 21, 2021

Soccer Betting Guide

What’s the difference between the two-way and three-way line in soccer betting? What does the Asian handicap mean? If the game ends in a draw, do you get your money back? Check out our Soccer Betting Guide to become more familiar with the nuances of betting on soccer.

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